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Coronavirus

Nigeria’s COVID-19 cases projected to top 240k as positivity tests approach 20% 

According to our simple forecast, Nigeria could record as much as 18,000 cases in June alone.  

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Analysis: Nigeria’s COVID-19 cases could top 240k as positivity tests approach 20% 
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Nigeria’s Coronavirus cases could hit 240,000 by year-end going by the current rate of cases recorded daily in June 2020. Nigeria recorded a whopping 745 new cases on Thursday, June 18th, the highest number of cases recorded on a single day. 

The data from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) also reveals cases have increased just as it ramped up testing across the country. Total testing as at June 18th was 106,006 up from just 63,882 as of May 2020, thus about 40% of total testing has occurred in the first 19 days of June. This comes to about 2,340 per day for June thus far. Most developed countries test over 20,000 per day.

In terms of cases per test or daily positivity test rate, Nigeria seems to be recording, 19.7%, or about 19.7 cases for every 100 tested. This is based on an average of 462 cases per day in June and 2,340 cases per day as indicated above.

The data is purely an estimate as the NCDC has not released any daily positivity test for Nigeria. Official figures are recommended for extensive analysis or decision making.  

The Positivity test rate tracks the number of cases recorded out of all tests conducted, and that came back positive for COVID-19. It is viewed as the most reliable way to determine if a government is testing enough.  

A high rate of positive test rate indicates that the government is only testing the sickest patients, who sought out medical attention, and is not casting a wide net.

The WHO has issued guidance stating that governments should see positivity rates below 5% for at least 14 days before relaxing social distancing measures. Nigeria’s positivity rate of 19.7% is far above the WHO recommended 5%.

According to data from Johns Hopkins University, Brazil has the highest daily positivity test rate with 36.68%, followed by Mexico with 18.71%. Sweden is next at 15.11%, followed by the US and UK at 13.76% and 13.01% respectively. India, which has a similar demographic like Nigeria, has a daily positivity test rate of 8.73%.

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READ MORE: Lagos to open churches, mosques from June 19, limits gatherings to 40% capacity

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Forecast cases 

Pandemics are often once in a century type events, thus, making projections can be dicey. However, running the numbers help appreciate the task at hand and urgency to flatten the curve.

A cursory analysis by Nairametrics Research estimates that at the current rate of daily cases, Nigeria might record up to 240,000 cases by the end of December 2020.  According to our simple forecast, Nigeria could record as much as 18,000 cases in June alone.  

We utilized Microsoft Excel forecast tool to estimate what the number of cases could be assuming the current levels are maintained. This is purely statistical and does not consider efforts to flatten the curve.  

In our analysis, we summed all the confirmed cases per month prior to June and then forecasted for the remaining days in June adding it to the confirmed cases recorded in June 2020. The total figures for each month were then used as the basis for forecasting into December 2020 with June as a starting point. The result is below; 

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As mentioned, this chart does not take into consideration other factors that could indeed help flatten the curve like social distancing, lockdown extensions, and other preventive measures. There are also reports of a potential cure for the virus which could help as well.

Some also believe that we could well be approaching a peak and that the numbers might start coming down sooner rather than later. 

Nevertheless, this cursory analysis depicts what we could be facing in the coming months if efforts are not intensified to reduce the spread of the virus.  

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Effect on Lockdown

The rising cases, particularly in Lagos has led to several policy reversals relating to the easing of lockdown. The Federal Government has rolled back plans to open up the local airports while the Lagos State government suspended indefinitely the planned reopening of mosques and churches initially set for Friday, June 19 and Sunday, June 21 respectively.

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While the centers were already warming up to start their services, Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu explained that the plan had to be suspended till the coast is clearer. He said,

We have been closely monitoring the situation since then, and have now concluded that we cannot proceed with any form of re-opening for places of worship in Lagos State, until further notice.

“This is not a decision that we have taken lightly, it is simply in line with our ongoing evaluation of evolving scenarios regarding the course of the infection in Lagos State and the corresponding public health advisory guidelines issued by the experts.’’

“We are now hereby suspending, with immediate effect, the plan to re-open religious houses and places of worship in Lagos State, until further notice.’’

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READ ALSO: WHO to update COVID-19 treatment inline with new findings

“We will continue to monitor the situation closely, and continue to base our decision-making on data modelling; as well as on the responsibility we have to act in a manner that ensures the protection of all you the people of Lagos State. Therefore, until further notice, all places of worship in Lagos State will remain closed.”

Also, on Thursday, the Presidential Task Force on COVID-19 declared that the June 21 date, which was earlier fixed for local airlines to resume operations, is not feasible. According to the Chairman of the task force, Boss Mustapha, the increasing cases are a concern and there are more grounds the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) has to cover before local flight resumption.

 

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Nairametrics Research team tracks, collates, maintains and manages a rich database of macro-economic and micro-economic data from Nigeria and Africa. Our analysts share some of the data collated on Nairametrics, using formats such as docs, tables and charts etc. The team also publishes research based analysis as articles on a regular basis.

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    Business News

    COVID-19 Update in Nigeria

    On the 22nd of April 2021, 100 new confirmed cases were recorded in Nigeria.

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    Covid 19 update symptops
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    The spread of novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) in Nigeria continues to record significant increases as the latest statistics provided by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control reveal Nigeria now has 164,588 confirmed cases.

    On the 22nd of April 2021, 100 new confirmed cases were recorded in Nigeria.

    To date, 164,588 cases have been confirmed, 154,578 cases have been discharged and 2,061 deaths have been recorded in 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.

    A total of 1.84 million tests have been carried out as of 22nd April 20th, 2021 compared to 1.81 million tests a day earlier.

    COVID-19 Case Updates- 22nd April 2021,

    • Total Number of Cases – 164,588
    • Total Number Discharged – 154,578
    • Total Deaths – 2,061
    • Total Tests Carried out – 1,838,174

    According to the NCDC, the 65 new cases are reported from 9 states- Taraba (64), Lagos (21), Abuja (4), Rivers (3), Akwa Ibom (2), Kaduna (2), Oyo (2), Bauchi (1), and Nasarawa (1).

    Meanwhile, the latest numbers bring Lagos state total confirmed cases to 58,209, followed by Abuja (19,754), Plateau (9,049), Kaduna (9,036), Rivers (7,070), Oyo (6,842), Edo (4,898), Ogun (4,647), Kano (3,942), Ondo (3,226), Kwara (3,120), Delta (2,617), Osun (2,572), Nasarawa (2,380), Enugu (2,281), Katsina (2,097), Gombe (2,034), Ebonyi (2,020), Anambra (1,909), Akwa Ibom (1,843), and Abia (1,683).

    Imo State has recorded 1,655 cases, Bauchi (1,540), Borno (1,337), Benue (1,188), Adamawa (1,063), Niger (930), Taraba (910), Bayelsa (885), Ekiti (869), Sokoto (775), Jigawa (527), Kebbi (450), Cross River (394), Yobe (365), Zamfara (240), while Kogi state has recorded 5 cases only.

    READ ALSO: COVID-19: Western diplomats warn of disease explosion, poor handling by government

    Lock Down and Curfew

    In a move to combat the spread of the pandemic disease, President Muhammadu Buhari directed the cessation of all movements in Lagos and the FCT for an initial period of 14 days, which took effect from 11 pm on Monday, 30th March 2020.

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    The movement restriction, which was extended by another two weeks period, has been partially put on hold with some businesses commencing operations from May 4. On April 27th, 2020, Nigeria’s President, Muhammadu Buhari declared an overnight curfew from 8 pm to 6 am across the country, as part of new measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19. This comes along with the phased and gradual easing of lockdown measures in FCT, Lagos, and Ogun States, which took effect from Saturday, 2nd May 2020, at 9 am.

    On Monday, 29th June 2020 the federal government extended the second phase of the eased lockdown by 4 weeks and approved interstate movement outside curfew hours with effect from July 1, 2020. Also, on Monday 27th July 2020, the federal government extended the second phase of eased lockdown by an additional one week.

    On Thursday, 6th August 2020 the federal government through the secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) and Chairman of the Presidential Task Force (PTF) on COVID-19 announced the extension of the second phase of eased lockdown by another four (4) weeks.

    Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State announced the closed down of the Eti-Osa Isolation Centre, with effect from Friday, 31st July 2020. He also mentioned that the Agidingbi Isolation Centre would also be closed and the patients relocated to a large capacity centre.

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    Due to the increased number of covid-19 cases in Nigeria, the Nigerian government ordered the reopening of Isolation and treatment centres in the country on Thursday, 10th December 2020.

    On 26th January 2021, the Federal Government announced the extension of the guidelines of phase 3 of the eased lockdown by one month following the rising cases of the coronavirus disease in the country and the expiration of phase 3 of the eased lockdown.

    On 28th February 2021, the federal government confirmed that the first tranche of Covid-19 vaccines will arrive in Nigeria on Tuesday, March 2nd, 2021.

    On Tuesday, 2nd March 2021, the National Primary health Care Development Agency announced the arrival of the expected COVX Astrazeneca/Oxford covid-19 vaccines.

    On Saturday, 6th March 2021, President Muhammadu Buhari and his vice, Yemi Osinbajo received vaccination against the covid-19 as the State House in Abuja.

    READ ALSO: Bill Gates says Trump’s WHO funding suspension is dangerous

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    Coronavirus

    FG explains how the Covid-19 vaccines work and their composition

    The NPHCDA Director said that Covid-19 vaccine candidates are of various categories based on their mechanism of action.

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    The Federal Government through the National Primary Health Care Development Agency (NPHCDA) has explained the composition of the Covid-19 vaccines and how they work.

    This is as some of them have been approved for emergency use by the World Health Organization (WHO) and some countries, while others are still at different phases of clinical trials for possible approval.

    According to a report from the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), this insight was given by the Executive Director/Chief Executive of NPHCDA, Dr Faisal Shuaib, who said there were several COVID-19 vaccine candidates.

    READ: African Union signs deal for 400 million Johnson and Johnson single shot vaccine

    He said that Covid-19 vaccine candidates are of various categories based on their mechanism of action such as the inactivated or weakened virus vaccines.

    He explained that the idea behind the formulation of an inactivated or weakened virus vaccine is to elicit an immune response without causing the disease itself. Shuaib also said there were protein-based vaccines, which used harmless fragments of proteins or protein shells that mimic the Covid-19 virus to safely generate an immune response.

    He added that the viral vector vaccines used a virus that had been genetically engineered to produce coronavirus proteins to safely generate an immune response and not give rise to the disease.

    Going further, Shuaib pointed out that the Ribonucleic Acid (RNA) and Deoxyribonucleic Acid (DNA) vaccines employed a cutting-edge approach that used genetically engineered RNA or DNA to generate a protein that safely prompted an immune response.

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    READ: China publicly presents its COVID-19 vaccines, 2 doses to cost below $146

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    What you should know

    • It can be recalled that on March 2, 2021, Nigeria received the first set of about 4 million doses of the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine, manufactured by the Serum Institute in India and shipped via the COVAX Facility, a partnership between CEPI, Gavi, UNICEF and WHO.
    • A few days ago, the Executive Director of NPHCDA disclosed that a total of 8,491 Nigerians have reacted adversely to the AstraZeneca inoculation since the exercise began on March 15.
    • He said that Nigeria recorded 52 cases of moderate to severe incidents of Adverse Effects Following Immunisation (AEFI), presented as fever, vomiting, diarrhoea headaches, dizziness and allergic reactions.
    • About 1.09 million Nigerians have so far been administered the first dose of the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine.

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