Nigeria’s Coronavirus cases could hit 240,000 by year-end going by the current rate of cases recorded daily in June 2020. Nigeria recorded a whopping 745 new cases on Thursday, June 18th, the highest number of cases recorded on a single day.
The data from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) also reveals cases have increased just as it ramped up testing across the country. Total testing as at June 18th was 106,006 up from just 63,882 as of May 2020, thus about 40% of total testing has occurred in the first 19 days of June. This comes to about 2,340 per day for June thus far. Most developed countries test over 20,000 per day.
In terms of cases per test or daily positivity test rate, Nigeria seems to be recording, 19.7%, or about 19.7 cases for every 100 tested. This is based on an average of 462 cases per day in June and 2,340 cases per day as indicated above.
The data is purely an estimate as the NCDC has not released any daily positivity test for Nigeria. Official figures are recommended for extensive analysis or decision making.
The Positivity test rate tracks the number of cases recorded out of all tests conducted, and that came back positive for COVID-19. It is viewed as the most reliable way to determine if a government is testing enough.
A high rate of positive test rate indicates that the government is only testing the sickest patients, who sought out medical attention, and is not casting a wide net.
The WHO has issued guidance stating that governments should see positivity rates below 5% for at least 14 days before relaxing social distancing measures. Nigeria’s positivity rate of 19.7% is far above the WHO recommended 5%.
According to data from Johns Hopkins University, Brazil has the highest daily positivity test rate with 36.68%, followed by Mexico with 18.71%. Sweden is next at 15.11%, followed by the US and UK at 13.76% and 13.01% respectively. India, which has a similar demographic like Nigeria, has a daily positivity test rate of 8.73%.
Pandemics are often once in a century type events, thus, making projections can be dicey. However, running the numbers help appreciate the task at hand and urgency to flatten the curve.
A cursory analysis by Nairametrics Research estimates that at the current rate of daily cases, Nigeria might record up to 240,000 cases by the end of December 2020. According to our simple forecast, Nigeria could record as much as 18,000 cases in June alone.
We utilized Microsoft Excel forecast tool to estimate what the number of cases could be assuming the current levels are maintained. This is purely statistical and does not consider efforts to flatten the curve.
In our analysis, we summed all the confirmed cases per month prior to June and then forecasted for the remaining days in June adding it to the confirmed cases recorded in June 2020. The total figures for each month were then used as the basis for forecasting into December 2020 with June as a starting point. The result is below;
As mentioned, this chart does not take into consideration other factors that could indeed help flatten the curve like social distancing, lockdown extensions, and other preventive measures. There are also reports of a potential cure for the virus which could help as well.
Some also believe that we could well be approaching a peak and that the numbers might start coming down sooner rather than later.
Nevertheless, this cursory analysis depicts what we could be facing in the coming months if efforts are not intensified to reduce the spread of the virus.
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Effect on Lockdown
The rising cases, particularly in Lagos has led to several policy reversals relating to the easing of lockdown. The Federal Government has rolled back plans to open up the local airports while the Lagos State government suspended indefinitely the planned reopening of mosques and churches initially set for Friday, June 19 and Sunday, June 21 respectively.
While the centers were already warming up to start their services, Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu explained that the plan had to be suspended till the coast is clearer. He said,
“We have been closely monitoring the situation since then, and have now concluded that we cannot proceed with any form of re-opening for places of worship in Lagos State, until further notice.
“This is not a decision that we have taken lightly, it is simply in line with our ongoing evaluation of evolving scenarios regarding the course of the infection in Lagos State and the corresponding public health advisory guidelines issued by the experts.’’
“We are now hereby suspending, with immediate effect, the plan to re-open religious houses and places of worship in Lagos State, until further notice.’’
“We will continue to monitor the situation closely, and continue to base our decision-making on data modelling; as well as on the responsibility we have to act in a manner that ensures the protection of all you the people of Lagos State. Therefore, until further notice, all places of worship in Lagos State will remain closed.”
Also, on Thursday, the Presidential Task Force on COVID-19 declared that the June 21 date, which was earlier fixed for local airlines to resume operations, is not feasible. According to the Chairman of the task force, Boss Mustapha, the increasing cases are a concern and there are more grounds the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) has to cover before local flight resumption.
Just in: Lagos to reopen schools on August 3
The governor said that the resumption is only for pupils and students in graduating classes.
The Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu has announced that both public and private schools will resume on August 3, 2020, after over 3 months of being shut down due to the coronavirus pandemic.
This is in line with the recent pronouncement by the Federal Government,
This was disclosed by the Governor while giving a situation report on COVID-19 at Lagos House Marina on July 3, 2020.
The governor said that the resumption is only for pupils and students in graduating classes, that is Primary 6, JSS 3, and SSS 3 who are preparing for exams.
He said other schools will remain closed and should continue with the online studies.
UNICEF in negotiations to buy COVID-19 drug for 4.5 million patients in poor countries
The initial purchase will be made for up to 4.5 million people in low and middle-income countries.
The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) is currently in negotiations to purchase the steroid-dexamethasone – for 4.5 million coronavirus infected patients in low and middle-income countries.
According to a report from Reuters, the advance purchase will be made under a deal negotiation led by UNITAID and Wellcome.
According to a joint statement from both agencies, the deal is part of the World Health Organization (WHO)’s plan to accelerate access to therapeutics in the battle against the global pandemic.
“With this advanced purchase we aim to ensure equitable access for low- and middle-income countries for the treatment of COVID-19 with the life-saving drug dexamethasone, and avoid shortages resulting from high levels of demand from other parts of the world,” said Philippe Duneton, acting executive director of UNITAID said in the statement.
The initial purchase will be made for up to 4.5 million people in low and middle-income countries, the agencies said on Friday.
The steroid dexamethasone, originally a corticosteroid medication used in the treatment of conditions such as asthma, inflammatory disorders and certain cancers, was discovered to be effective in treating severe or critical COVID-19 patients on ventilators, following clinical trials in the United Kingdom.
Earlier in June, Nigeria’s Minister of Health, Dr. Osagie Ehanire had called on frontline clinicians to consider the use of dexamethasone in the treatment of COVID-19 across the country.
Speaking during one of the daily briefings by the Task Force on COVID-19, Ehanire noted that the drug had been in use since the 1960s and its side effects are well known to medical practitioners
“Luckily, this medicine is not new. It is a well-known steroid that is used for other purposes but was found to be useful in this case (treatment of COVID-19). So it is easy to try it out because we already know its side effects. It is not a product that will get you worried about its possible side effects.
“So we are going to ask our clinician to also consider adding it to their trials and see what result it brings in our circumstances,” he said in the briefing, acknowledging the results from the UK clinical trials.
The World Health Organisation also welcomed the results of the initial clinical trial results from the United Kingdom showing that dexamethasone could be lifesaving for patients who are critically ill with COVID-19 and for patients on ventilators.
COVID-19 Update in Nigeria
On the 2nd of July 2020, 626 new confirmed cases and 13 deaths were recorded in Nigeria bringing the total confirmed cases recorded in the country to 27,110.
The spread of novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) in Nigeria touched a new milestone as the latest statistics provided by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control reveal Nigeria now has 27,110 confirmed cases.
On the 2nd of July 2020, 626 new confirmed cases and 13 deaths were recorded in Nigeria, having carried out a total daily test of 3,063 samples across the country.
To date, 27110 cases have been confirmed, 10801 cases have been discharged and 616 deaths have been recorded in 35 states and the Federal Capital Territory. A total of 141,525 tests have been carried out as of July 2nd, 2020 compared to 138,462 tests a day earlier.
COVID-19 Case Updates- 2nd July 2020
- Total Number of Cases – 27,110
- Total Number Discharged – 10,801
- Total Deaths – 616
- Total Tests Carried out – 141,525
According to the NCDC, the 626 new cases were reported from 20 states- Lagos (193), FCT (85), Oyo (41), Edo (38), Kwara (34), Abia (31), Ogun (29), Ondo (28), Rivers (26), Osun (21), Akwa Ibom (18), Delta (18), Enugu (15), Kaduna (13), Plateau (11), Borno (8), Bauchi (7), Adamawa (5), Gombe (4), Sokoto (1).
Meanwhile, the latest numbers bring Lagos state total confirmed cases to 10,823, followed by Abuja (2,020), Oyo (1,432), Kano (1,257), Edo (1,203), Delta (1,149) Rivers (1,114), Ogun (898), Kaduna (818), Katsina (578), Bauchi (512), Gombe (511), Borno (501), Ebonyi (438), Plateau (393), Ondo (353), Imo (352), Abia (351), Enugu (342), Jigawa (318).
Kwara state has recorded 269 cases, Bayelsa (234), Nasarawa (213), Sokoto (152), Osun (148), Niger (116), Akwa Ibom (104), Adamawa (89), Kebbi (81), Zamfara (76), Anambra (73), Benue (65), Yobe (61), Ekiti (43), Taraba (19), while Kogi state has recorded 4 cases.
Lock Down and Curfew
In a move to combat the spread of the pandemic disease, President Muhammadu Buhari directed the cessation of all movements in Lagos and the FCT for an initial period of 14 days, which took effect from 11 pm on Monday, 30th March 2020.
The movement restriction, which was extended by another two-weeks period, has been partially put on hold with some businesses commencing operations from May 4. On April 27th, 2020, Nigeria’s President, Muhammadu Buhari declared an overnight curfew from 8 pm to 6 am across the country, as part of new measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19. This comes along with the phased and gradual easing of lockdown measures in FCT, Lagos, and Ogun States, which took effect from Saturday, 2nd May 2020, at 9 am.
On Monday, 29th June 2020 the federal government extended the second phase of the eased lockdown by 4 weeks and approved interstate movement outside curfew hours with effect from July 1, 2020.
|Date||Confirmed case||New cases||Total deaths||New deaths||Total recovery||Active cases||Critical cases|
|July 2, 2020||27110||626||616||13||10801||15693||7|
|July 1, 2020||26484||790||603||13||10152||15729||7|
|June 30, 2020||25694||561||590||17||9746||15358||7|
|June 29, 2020||25133||566||573||8||9402||15158||7|
|June 28, 2020||24867||490||565||7||9007||14995||7|
|June 27, 2020||24077||779||558||4||8625||14894||7|
|June 26, 2020||23298||684||554||5||8253||14491||7|
|June 25, 2020||22614||594||549||7||7822||14243||7|
|June 24, 2020||22020||649||542||9||7613||13865||7|
|June 23, 2020||21371||452||533||8||7338||13500||7|
|June 22, 2020||20919||675||525||7||7109||13285||7|
|June 21, 2020||20242||436||518||12||6879||12847||7|
|June 20, 2020||19808||661||506||19||6718||12584||7|
|June 19, 2020||19147||667||487||12||6581||12079||7|
|June 18, 2020||18480||745||475||6||6307||11698||7|
|June 17, 2020||17735||587||469||14||5967||11299||7|
|June 16, 2020||17148||490||455||31||5623||11070||7|
|June 15, 2020||16658||573||424||4||5349||10885||7|
|June 14, 2020||16085||403||420||13||5220||10445||7|
|June 13, 2020||15682||501||407||8||5101||10174||7|
|June 12, 2020||15181||627||399||12||4891||9891||7|
|June 11, 2020||14554||681||387||5||4494||9673||7|
|June 10, 2020||13873||409||382||17||4351||9140||7|
|June 9, 2020||13464||663||365||4||4206||8893||7|
|June 8, 2020||12801||315||361||7||4040||8400||7|
|June 7, 2020||12486||260||354||12||3959||8173||7|
|June 6, 2020||12233||389||342||9||3826||8065||7|
|June 5, 2020||11844||328||333||10||3696||7815||7|
|June 4, 2020||11516||350||323||8||3535||7646||7|
|June 3, 2020||11166||348||315||1||3329||7522||7|
|June 2, 2020||10819||241||314||15||3239||7266||7|
|June 1, 2020||10578||416||299||12||3122||7157||9|
|May 31, 2020||10162||307||287||14||3007||6868||7|
|May 30, 2020||9855||553||273||12||2856||6726||7|
|May 29, 2020||9302||387||261||2||2697||6344||7|
|May 28, 2020||8915||182||259||5||2592||6064||7|
|May 27, 2020||8733||389||254||5||2501||5978||7|
|May 26, 2020||8344||276||249||16||2385||5710||7|
|May 25, 2020||8068||229||233||7||2311||5524||7|
|May 24, 2020||7839||313||226||5||2263||5360||7|
|May 23, 2020||7526||265||221||0||2174||5131||7|
|May 22, 2020||7261||245||221||10||2007||5033||7|
|May 21, 2020||7016||339||211||11||1907||4898||7|
|May 20, 2020||6677||284||200||8||1840||4637||7|
|May 19, 2020||6401||226||192||1||1734||4475||7|
|May 18, 2020||6175||216||191||9||1644||4340||7|
|May 17, 2020||5959||388||182||6||1594||4183||7|
|May 16, 2020||5621||176||176||5||1472||3973||7|
|May 15, 2020||5445||288||171||3||1320||3954||4|
|May 14, 2020||5162||193||168||3||1180||3815||4|
|May 13, 2020||4971||184||164||6||1070||3737||4|
|May 12, 2020||4787||146||158||6||959||3670||4|
|May 11, 2020||4641||242||152||10||902||3589||4|
|May 10, 2020||4399||248||142||17||778||3479||4|
|May 9, 2020||4151||239||127||11||745||3278||4|
|May 8, 2020||3912||386||118||10||679||3115||4|
|May 7, 2020||3526||381||108||4||601||2818||4|
|May 6, 2020||3145||195||104||5||534||2507||1|
|May 5, 2020||2950||148||99||5||481||2370||4|
|May 4, 2020||2802||245||94||6||417||2291||2|
|May 3, 2020||2558||170||88||2||400||2070||2|
|May 2, 2020||2388||220||86||17||351||1952||2|
|May 1, 2020||2170||238||69||10||351||1751||2|
|April 30, 2020||1932||204||59||7||317||1556||2|
|April 29, 2020||1728||196||52||7||307||1369||2|
|April 28, 2020||1532||195||45||4||255||1232||2|
|April 27, 2020||1337||64||41||0||255||994||2|
|April 26, 2020||1273||91||41||5||239||994||2|
|April 25, 2020||1182||87||36||3||222||925||2|
|April 24, 2020||1095||114||33||1||208||855||2|
|April 23, 2020||981||108||32||3||197||753||2|
|April 22, 2020||873||91||29||3||197||648||2|
|April 21, 2020||782||117||26||3||197||560||2|
|April 20, 2020||665||38||23||1||188||466||2|
|April 19, 2020||627||86||22||2||170||436||2|
|April 18, 2020||541||48||20||2||166||356||2|
|April 17, 2020||493||51||18||4||159||317||2|
|April 16, 2020||442||35||13||1||152||277||2|
|April 15, 2020||407||34||12||1||128||267||2|
|April 14, 2020||373||30||11||1||99||263||2|
|April 13, 2020||343||20||10||0||91||242||2|
|April 12, 2020||323||5||10||0||85||228||2|
|April 11, 2020||318||13||10||3||70||238||2|
|April 10, 2020||305||17||7||0||58||240||2|
|April 9, 2020||288||14||7||1||51||230||2|
|April 8, 2020||274||22||6||0||44||226||2|
|April 7, 2020||254||16||6||1||44||204||2|
|April 6, 2020||238||6||5||0||35||198||2|
|April 5, 2020||232||18||5||1||33||194||2|
|April 4, 2020||214||5||4||0||25||185||0|
|April 3, 2020||209||25||4||2||25||180||0|
|April 2, 2020||184||10||2||0||20||162||0|
|April 1, 2020||174||35||2||0||9||163||0|
|March 31, 2020||139||8||2||0||9||128||0|
|March 30, 2020||131||20||2||1||8||121||0|
|March 29, 2020||111||22||1||0||3||107||0|
|March 28, 2020||89||19||1||0||3||85||0|
|March 27, 2020||70||5||1||0||3||66||0|
|March 26, 2020||65||14||1||0||2||62||0|
|March 25, 2020||51||7||1||0||2||48||0|
|March 24, 2020||44||4||1||0||2||41||0|
|March 23, 2020||40||10||1||1||2||37||0|
|March 22, 2020||30||8||0||0||2||28||0|
|March 21, 2020||22||10||0||0||1||21||0|
|March 20, 2020||12||4||0||0||1||11||0|
|March 19, 2020||8||0||0||0||1||7||0|
|March 18, 2020||8||5||0||0||1||7||0|
|March 17, 2020||3||1||0||0||0||3||0|
|March 16, 2020||2||0||0||0||0||2||0|
|March 15, 2020||2||0||0||0||0||2||0|
|March 14, 2020||2||0||0||0||0||2||0|
|March 13, 2020||2||0||0||0||0||2||0|
|March 12, 2020||2||0||0||0||0||2||0|
|March 11, 2020||2||0||0||0||0||2||0|
|March 10, 2020||2||0||0||0||0||2||0|
|March 9, 2020||2||1||0||0||0||2||0|
|March 8, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|March 7, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|March 6, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|March 5, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|March 4, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|March 3, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|March 2, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|March 1, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|February 29, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|February 28, 2020||1||1||0||0||0||1||0|