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Coronavirus

Nigeria’s COVID-19 cases projected to top 240k as positivity tests approach 20% 

According to our simple forecast, Nigeria could record as much as 18,000 cases in June alone.  

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Analysis: Nigeria’s COVID-19 cases could top 240k as positivity tests approach 20% 

Nigeria’s Coronavirus cases could hit 240,000 by year-end going by the current rate of cases recorded daily in June 2020. Nigeria recorded a whopping 745 new cases on Thursday, June 18th, the highest number of cases recorded on a single day. 

The data from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) also reveals cases have increased just as it ramped up testing across the country. Total testing as at June 18th was 106,006 up from just 63,882 as of May 2020, thus about 40% of total testing has occurred in the first 19 days of June. This comes to about 2,340 per day for June thus far. Most developed countries test over 20,000 per day.

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In terms of cases per test or daily positivity test rate, Nigeria seems to be recording, 19.7%, or about 19.7 cases for every 100 tested. This is based on an average of 462 cases per day in June and 2,340 cases per day as indicated above.

The data is purely an estimate as the NCDC has not released any daily positivity test for Nigeria. Official figures are recommended for extensive analysis or decision making.  

The Positivity test rate tracks the number of cases recorded out of all tests conducted, and that came back positive for COVID-19. It is viewed as the most reliable way to determine if a government is testing enough.  

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A high rate of positive test rate indicates that the government is only testing the sickest patients, who sought out medical attention, and is not casting a wide net.

The WHO has issued guidance stating that governments should see positivity rates below 5% for at least 14 days before relaxing social distancing measures. Nigeria’s positivity rate of 19.7% is far above the WHO recommended 5%.

According to data from Johns Hopkins University, Brazil has the highest daily positivity test rate with 36.68%, followed by Mexico with 18.71%. Sweden is next at 15.11%, followed by the US and UK at 13.76% and 13.01% respectively. India, which has a similar demographic like Nigeria, has a daily positivity test rate of 8.73%.

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READ MORE: Lagos to open churches, mosques from June 19, limits gatherings to 40% capacity

Forecast cases 

Pandemics are often once in a century type events, thus, making projections can be dicey. However, running the numbers help appreciate the task at hand and urgency to flatten the curve.

A cursory analysis by Nairametrics Research estimates that at the current rate of daily cases, Nigeria might record up to 240,000 cases by the end of December 2020.  According to our simple forecast, Nigeria could record as much as 18,000 cases in June alone.  

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We utilized Microsoft Excel forecast tool to estimate what the number of cases could be assuming the current levels are maintained. This is purely statistical and does not consider efforts to flatten the curve.  

In our analysis, we summed all the confirmed cases per month prior to June and then forecasted for the remaining days in June adding it to the confirmed cases recorded in June 2020. The total figures for each month were then used as the basis for forecasting into December 2020 with June as a starting point. The result is below; 

As mentioned, this chart does not take into consideration other factors that could indeed help flatten the curve like social distancing, lockdown extensions, and other preventive measures. There are also reports of a potential cure for the virus which could help as well.

Some also believe that we could well be approaching a peak and that the numbers might start coming down sooner rather than later. 

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Nevertheless, this cursory analysis depicts what we could be facing in the coming months if efforts are not intensified to reduce the spread of the virus.  

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Effect on Lockdown

The rising cases, particularly in Lagos has led to several policy reversals relating to the easing of lockdown. The Federal Government has rolled back plans to open up the local airports while the Lagos State government suspended indefinitely the planned reopening of mosques and churches initially set for Friday, June 19 and Sunday, June 21 respectively.

While the centers were already warming up to start their services, Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu explained that the plan had to be suspended till the coast is clearer. He said,

We have been closely monitoring the situation since then, and have now concluded that we cannot proceed with any form of re-opening for places of worship in Lagos State, until further notice.

“This is not a decision that we have taken lightly, it is simply in line with our ongoing evaluation of evolving scenarios regarding the course of the infection in Lagos State and the corresponding public health advisory guidelines issued by the experts.’’

“We are now hereby suspending, with immediate effect, the plan to re-open religious houses and places of worship in Lagos State, until further notice.’’

READ ALSO: WHO to update COVID-19 treatment inline with new findings

“We will continue to monitor the situation closely, and continue to base our decision-making on data modelling; as well as on the responsibility we have to act in a manner that ensures the protection of all you the people of Lagos State. Therefore, until further notice, all places of worship in Lagos State will remain closed.”

Also, on Thursday, the Presidential Task Force on COVID-19 declared that the June 21 date, which was earlier fixed for local airlines to resume operations, is not feasible. According to the Chairman of the task force, Boss Mustapha, the increasing cases are a concern and there are more grounds the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) has to cover before local flight resumption.

 

Patricia

Nairametrics Research team tracks, collates, maintains and manages a rich database of macro-economic and micro-economic data from Nigeria and Africa. Our analysts share some of the data collated on Nairametrics, using formats such as docs, tables and charts etc. The team also publishes research based analysis as articles on a regular basis.

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Coronavirus

Just in: Lagos to reopen schools on August 3

The governor said that the resumption is only for pupils and students in graduating classes.

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Sanwo-Olu, COVID-19: Lagos ramps up measure to smash disease as it begins fumigation, Covid-19: Total lockdowm imminent as Lagos fears confirmed cases could hit 39,000, Hotels to remain shut in Lagos, as manufacturing and construction companies get conditional waivers, COVID-19 palliative: Sanwo-Olu concludes Homegrown School Feeding Programme

The Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu has announced that both public and private schools will resume on August 3, 2020, after over 3 months of being shut down due to the coronavirus pandemic.

This is in line with the recent pronouncement by the Federal Government,

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This was disclosed by the Governor while giving a situation report on COVID-19 at Lagos House Marina on July 3, 2020.

The governor said that the resumption is only for pupils and students in graduating classes, that is Primary 6, JSS 3, and SSS 3 who are preparing for exams.

He said other schools will remain closed and should continue with the online studies.

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Details later…

Patricia
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Coronavirus

UNICEF in negotiations to buy COVID-19 drug for 4.5 million patients in poor countries

The initial purchase will be made for up to 4.5 million people in low and middle-income countries.

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UNICEF in negotiations to buy COVID-19 drug for 4.5 million patients in poor countries

The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) is currently in negotiations to purchase the steroid-dexamethasone  – for 4.5 million coronavirus infected patients in low and middle-income countries.

According to a report from Reuters, the advance purchase will be made under a deal negotiation led by UNITAID and Wellcome.

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According to a joint statement from both agencies, the deal is part of the World Health Organization (WHO)’s plan to accelerate access to therapeutics in the battle against the global pandemic.

“With this advanced purchase we aim to ensure equitable access for low- and middle-income countries for the treatment of COVID-19 with the life-saving drug dexamethasone, and avoid shortages resulting from high levels of demand from other parts of the world,” said Philippe Duneton, acting executive director of UNITAID said in the statement.

The initial purchase will be made for up to 4.5 million people in low and middle-income countries, the agencies said on Friday.

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READ MORE: African Development Bank to launch African Economic Outlook 2020 Supplement

The steroid dexamethasone, originally a corticosteroid medication used in the treatment of conditions such as asthma, inflammatory disorders and certain cancers, was discovered to be effective in treating severe or critical COVID-19 patients on ventilators, following clinical trials in the United Kingdom.

Earlier in June, Nigeria’s Minister of Health, Dr. Osagie Ehanire had called on frontline clinicians to consider the use of dexamethasone in the treatment of COVID-19 across the country.

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Speaking during one of the daily briefings by the Task Force on COVID-19, Ehanire noted that the drug had been in use since the 1960s and its side effects are well known to medical practitioners

READ ALSO: World Bank 2020 stats: Developing nations’ debt hit $7.8 trillion

“Luckily, this medicine is not new. It is a well-known steroid that is used for other purposes but was found to be useful in this case (treatment of COVID-19). So it is easy to try it out because we already know its side effects. It is not a product that will get you worried about its possible side effects.

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“So we are going to ask our clinician to also consider adding it to their trials and see what result it brings in our circumstances,” he said in the briefing, acknowledging the results from the UK clinical trials.

The World Health Organisation also welcomed the results of the initial clinical trial results from the United Kingdom showing that dexamethasone could be lifesaving for patients who are critically ill with COVID-19 and for patients on ventilators.

 

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Coronavirus

COVID-19 Update in Nigeria

On the 2nd of July 2020, 626 new confirmed cases and 13 deaths were recorded in Nigeria bringing the total confirmed cases recorded in the country to 27,110.

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The spread of novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) in Nigeria touched a new milestone as the latest statistics provided by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control reveal Nigeria now has 27,110 confirmed cases.

On the 2nd of July 2020, 626 new confirmed cases and 13 deaths were recorded in Nigeria, having carried out a total daily test of 3,063 samples across the country.

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To date, 27110 cases have been confirmed, 10801 cases have been discharged and 616 deaths have been recorded in 35 states and the Federal Capital Territory. A total of 141,525 tests have been carried out as of July 2nd, 2020 compared to 138,462 tests a day earlier.

COVID-19 Case Updates- 2nd July 2020

  • Total Number of Cases – 27,110
  • Total Number Discharged – 10,801
  • Total Deaths – 616
  • Total Tests Carried out – 141,525

According to the NCDC, the 626 new cases were reported from 20 states- Lagos (193), FCT (85), Oyo (41), Edo (38), Kwara (34), Abia (31), Ogun (29), Ondo (28), Rivers (26), Osun (21), Akwa Ibom (18), Delta (18), Enugu (15), Kaduna (13), Plateau (11), Borno (8), Bauchi (7), Adamawa (5), Gombe (4), Sokoto (1).

Meanwhile, the latest numbers bring Lagos state total confirmed cases to 10,823, followed by Abuja (2,020), Oyo (1,432), Kano (1,257), Edo (1,203), Delta (1,149) Rivers (1,114), Ogun (898),  Kaduna (818), Katsina (578), Bauchi (512), Gombe (511), Borno (501), Ebonyi (438), Plateau (393), Ondo (353), Imo (352), Abia (351), Enugu (342), Jigawa (318).

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Kwara state has recorded 269 cases, Bayelsa (234), Nasarawa (213), Sokoto (152), Osun (148), Niger (116), Akwa Ibom (104), Adamawa (89), Kebbi (81), Zamfara (76), Anambra (73), Benue (65), Yobe (61), Ekiti (43), Taraba (19), while Kogi state has recorded 4 cases.

 

READ ALSO: COVID-19: Western diplomats warn of disease explosion, poor handling by government

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Lock Down and Curfew

In a move to combat the spread of the pandemic disease, President Muhammadu Buhari directed the cessation of all movements in Lagos and the FCT for an initial period of 14 days, which took effect from 11 pm on Monday, 30th March 2020.

The movement restriction, which was extended by another two-weeks period, has been partially put on hold with some businesses commencing operations from May 4. On April 27th, 2020, Nigeria’s President, Muhammadu Buhari declared an overnight curfew from 8 pm to 6 am across the country, as part of new measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19. This comes along with the phased and gradual easing of lockdown measures in FCT, Lagos, and Ogun States, which took effect from Saturday, 2nd May 2020, at 9 am.

On Monday, 29th June 2020 the federal government extended the second phase of the eased lockdown by 4 weeks and approved interstate movement outside curfew hours with effect from July 1, 2020.

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READ ALSO: Bill Gates says Trump’s WHO funding suspension is dangerous

DateConfirmed caseNew casesTotal deathsNew deathsTotal recoveryActive casesCritical cases
July 2, 2020271106266161310801156937
July 1, 2020264847906031310152157297
June 30, 202025694561590179746153587
June 29, 20202513356657389402151587
June 28, 20202486749056579007149957
June 27, 20202407777955848625148947
June 26, 20202329868455458253144917
June 25, 20202261459454977822142437
June 24, 20202202064954297613138657
June 23, 20202137145253387338135007
June 22, 20202091967552577109132857
June 21, 202020242436518126879128477
June 20, 202019808661506196718125847
June 19, 202019147667487126581120797
June 18, 20201848074547566307116987
June 17, 202017735587469145967112997
June 16, 202017148490455315623110707
June 15, 20201665857342445349108857
June 14, 202016085403420135220104457
June 13, 20201568250140785101101747
June 12, 20201518162739912489198917
June 11, 2020145546813875449496737
June 10, 20201387340938217435191407
June 9, 2020134646633654420688937
June 8, 2020128013153617404084007
June 7, 20201248626035412395981737
June 6, 2020122333893429382680657
June 5, 20201184432833310369678157
June 4, 2020115163503238353576467
June 3, 2020111663483151332975227
June 2, 20201081924131415323972667
June 1, 20201057841629912312271579
May 31, 20201016230728714300768687
May 30, 2020985555327312285667267
May 29, 202093023872612269763447
May 28, 202089151822595259260647
May 27, 202087333892545250159787
May 26, 2020834427624916238557107
May 25, 202080682292337231155247
May 24, 202078393132265226353607
May 23, 202075262652210217451317
May 22, 2020726124522110200750337
May 21, 2020701633921111190748987
May 20, 202066772842008184046377
May 19, 202064012261921173444757
May 18, 202061752161919164443407
May 17, 202059593881826159441837
May 16, 202056211761765147239737
May 15, 202054452881713132039544
May 14, 202051621931683118038154
May 13, 202049711841646107037374
May 12, 20204787146158695936704
May 11, 202046412421521090235894
May 10, 202043992481421777834794
May 9, 202041512391271174532784
May 8, 202039123861181067931154
May 7, 20203526381108460128184
May 6, 20203145195104553425071
May 5, 2020295014899548123704
May 4, 2020280224594641722912
May 3, 2020255817088240020702
May 2, 20202388220861735119522
May 1, 20202170238691035117512
April 30, 2020193220459731715562
April 29, 2020172819652730713692
April 28, 2020153219545425512322
April 27, 20201337644102559942
April 26, 20201273914152399942
April 25, 20201182873632229252
April 24, 202010951143312088552
April 23, 20209811083231977532
April 22, 2020873912931976482
April 21, 20207821172631975602
April 20, 2020665382311884662
April 19, 2020627862221704362
April 18, 2020541482021663562
April 17, 2020493511841593172
April 16, 2020442351311522772
April 15, 2020407341211282672
April 14, 202037330111992632
April 13, 202034320100912422
April 12, 20203235100852282
April 11, 202031813103702382
April 10, 20203051770582402
April 9, 20202881471512302
April 8, 20202742260442262
April 7, 20202541661442042
April 6, 2020238650351982
April 5, 20202321851331942
April 4, 2020214540251850
April 3, 20202092542251800
April 2, 20201841020201620
April 1, 2020174352091630
March 31, 202013982091280
March 30, 2020131202181210
March 29, 2020111221031070
March 28, 20208919103850
March 27, 2020705103660
March 26, 20206514102620
March 25, 2020517102480
March 24, 2020444102410
March 23, 20204010112370
March 22, 2020308002280
March 21, 20202210001210
March 20, 2020124001110
March 19, 20208000170
March 18, 20208500170
March 17, 20203100030
March 16, 20202000020
March 15, 20202000020
March 14, 20202000020
March 13, 20202000020
March 12, 20202000020
March 11, 20202000020
March 10, 20202000020
March 9, 20202100020
March 8, 20201000010
March 7, 20201000010
March 6, 20201000010
March 5, 20201000010
March 4, 20201000010
March 3, 20201000010
March 2, 20201000010
March 1, 20201000010
February 29, 20201000010
February 28, 20201100010

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