Crude oil prices rallied higher at Tuesday’s trading session in London.
The price gains are coming on reports that the world’s largest economy citizens would get more pandemic aid payments coupled with news that a final Brexit deal is set to stabilize trade between Europe and the UK.
What you should know
- At the time of writing this report, Brent crude futures gained 0.5%, to $51.09 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also rallied by 0.5%, to $47.85 a barrel.
- Oil prices are rising along with leading Asian shares as Japanese stocks hit a 30-year high, on rising investor risk appetite on the bias that the U.S. House of Representatives voted to raise pandemic relief payments to $2,000 from $600.
- The United States Senate still needs to vote on the measure.
What they are saying
Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi, in a note to Nairametrics, gave detailed insights on the parabolics keeping oil bulls in the prevailing price action of crude oil market amid an era of record quantitative programs by the world’s largest economy.
Oil markets feel very rangy into the New Year but should find support today from broader risk markets as stocks are soaring on the prospects of larger stimulus checks.
- “However, for oil markets, gains could be limited due to the new COVID-19 variant and OPEC meeting overhangs. After stalling out at Brent $52 as the stimulus relief rally gave way to the new variant virus reality which might pose significantly more downside risk due to mobility restrictions than current demand tailwinds for oil which sees January demand is currently on shaky footings.
- “Oil prices then fell after Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak hinted that should oil demand recover next year faster than currently expected, member states could adjust the terms of the current OPEC + production agreement.
- “After watering down the original January production plan to 500,000 bpd from 2 million bpd, the surging oil prices suggest smaller states would be eager to bring more barrels back to the market.”
What to expect
The major question many oil traders are pondering on is how quickly and by in what capacity will OPEC+ turn on the taps?
- But one certain thing is that OPEC+ needs to ensure its production capacity meets demand rather than leave it for US shale, suggesting all production decisions will be guided by price.
Oil prices tumble on fears of global economic recovery
Brent crude futures dropped about 1%, to $54.65 a barrel, after losing 2.3% on Friday.
Oil prices dropped at the first trading session of the week.
Oil traders are virtually going short, with the global market’s economic recovery outlook being called into question as COVID-19 infections rise.
What you should know: At press time, Brent crude futures dropped by about 1%, to $54.65 a barrel, after losing 2.3% on Friday. West Texas Intermediate futures lost about 1%, at $51.93 a barrel, having declined 2.3% also on Friday.
Increasing COVID-19 caseloads throughout the world continued weighing on oil prices, as oil traders doubted how long energy demand would hold up.
Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi, in a note to Nairametrics, gave key insights on macros weighing on oil prices
“Oil prices struggled from the mid-week after swelling production inventories then fused with the return of COVID in China, providing a not-so-rosy near-term demand signal. And adding for downside drift to the flow the slow roll-out of vaccines globally is walking back the timeline for jet fuel demand to take off.
The US dollar is strengthening due to the confluence of continental dilemmas. The global “risk-off” tone is also attracting US dollar safe-haven demand. A stronger US dollar seldom if ever makes for good bedfellows with higher oil prices.”
What to expect: Still, it remains crucial for OPEC+ to monitor the demand variables around lockdowns and stay responsive to changing conditions. Underlying demand will not approach normal levels until 2022 at the earliest, and vigilance from OPEC+ will continue to be important in supporting oil prices.
Gold prices suffer worst two weeks in a row since November
Gold futures prices at their most recent trading session settled at $1,829.90 an ounce, down by 1.2%.
Gold prices suffered significant losses at their most recent trading session.
The yellow metal lost its shine at the expense of charging U.S dollar, whose surge of late astonished many investors amid the currency debasement expected from the U.S President-elect’s proposed $1.9 trillion COVID-19 support programme.
What you should know
- Gold futures at their most recent trading session settled at $1,829.90 an ounce, down by 1.2%.
- Although the yellow metal’s recent loss on a weekly basis moderated to just 0.3% on the week, that loss added to the previous week’s plunge of 3.2% — handing gold its worst two weeks in a row since November.
- The greenback was an outlier at the last trading session despite drops seen in U.S bond yields associated with the benchmark 10-year U.S. note, whose resurgence in the previous week had been the catalyst for the U.S dollar comeback.
Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi, in a note to Nairametrics, gave insights on the odds weighing on the yellow metal in the near term.
- “With short dollar trades tempering over the great US dollar debasement story of 2021, it’s not such an easy glide path for gold to start the year. So, I suspect gold remains tied to the hip of the US dollar fortunes this quarter. The market then morphs into “sell the rally mode” as the US economy recovers tangentially to the vaccine distributions.”
Investors are increasingly confronted with the reality that the pandemic is still far from being under control, thereby flocking back to the safe-haven currency despite the significant progress that was made in the past few months, and several COVID-19 vaccines already in the market.
Oil prices suffer worst trading loss in a month
Oil prices were under pressure on fears of recent lockdown measures sighted in China.
Crude oil prices suffered their worst trading loss in a month, tumbling by more than 2% at Friday’s trading session.
Oil prices were under pressure on fears that recent COVID-19 lockdown measures sighted in the world’s largest buyer of crude oil, China, could in the coming days exhibit weakness in energy demand.
What you should know: A strong U.S dollar, the currency on which crude oil is primarily sold, made purchasing of the commodity less competitive for holders in other currencies like the Euro, Japanese yen, thereby weighing on oil prices
- U.S based oil contract, West Texas Intermediate futures, plunged by 2.2.% to settle at $52.36 per barrel. It is the oil contract’s biggest one-day drop since December 18, although it rounded out the week with a 0.5% upsides.
- The British-based oil contract, which is the global benchmark for crude, settled down $1.32, after losing 2.3% at $55.10. For the week, Brent crude prices lost about 1.6% in value.
- The world’s second-largest economy ramped up lockdowns yesterday, after reporting the highest number of daily Covid-19 cases in more than 10 months.
China capped a week that has resulted in more than 28 million people under lockdown as it suffered its first COVID-19 death on the mainland since May.
Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi, in a note to Nairametrics, spoke on the prevailing macro conditions keeping oil prices relatively high, taking into account Saudi’s recent pledge to curb production, and the influx of COVID-19 vaccines to tame the ravaging virus:
“With Saudi Arabia providing the cornerstone and bridging the gap to vaccine oil market lift-off. With the renewed enthusiasm about the US demand recovery due to the prospects for more stimulus and the new administration’s pledge to focus on the vaccinations’ rollout, oil prices are lifting higher locking to hash out higher ranges.”
What to expect: Oil traders are entering a critical phase as oil remains sensitive to the news, with negative implications for the demand recovery.
The oil market recovery is vital for blunting the effect of higher nominal US Treasury yields through the reflationary channel. If oil doesn’t fly higher, the reflation trade could fall flat on its face.