Nigeria’s economy will grow by 2.4% on average in 2021-25 but will slow to 2.2% in the 2026-35 period, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).
In its annual world economic league table of the growth prospects of 193 countries, released on Saturday 26th, the UK-based consultancy group said the country may be in the same position in 2035.
A steady rise has seen the country move from 38th position in 2005 to 27th position in 2019. However, the CEBR predicts that this rise will halt the projected 2.4% from 2021-25, predicted to decline by 0.2% points from 2026 – 2035.
What needs to be done
Considering that certain policies appear not to be delivering results and attaining expected outcomes, Nigeria should focus on studying governance models of relevant countries with the intention of comparing and benchmarking their experiences and explore differences and similarities in practice.
This does not imply that Nigeria will copy or import any model; but rather to learn from their experiences and see how they tackled similar problems in the past; and are currently tackling similar problems.
Key highlights from the report
- Global gross domestic product is forecast to decline by 4.4% this year, in the biggest one-year fall since the second world war.
- The US economy is expected to contract by 5% this year, making China to narrow the gap with its biggest rival.
- China is set to overtake the US to become the world’s biggest economy five years earlier than previously predicted.
- Thanks to China’s “skilful” management of the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in the country outperforming its rival during the global COVID-19 pandemic.
- CEBR expects the value of China’s economy when measured in dollars to exceed that of the US by 2028.
- World’s pandemic recovery would likely be dominated by higher inflation rather than slower growth – a challenge to governments like Britain’s which have borrowed huge sums to fund COVID responses.
What you should know
According to the CEBR report and as reported by The Guardian,
- Japan is expected to remain in third place in dollar terms but is likely to be overtaken by India in the early part of the next decade.
- This would push Germany from fourth to fifth place.
- The UK, currently the fifth-biggest economy according to the CEBR, is expected to fall to sixth place by 2024.
- However, GDP in dollars is expected to be 23% higher than that in France by 2035, mainly due to the growing digital economy.
- India, after overtaking France and the UK last year, had fallen back behind the UK as a result of a sharp fall in the value of the rupee. But the dip will be short-lived, with the world’s second most populous country on course to be the third biggest economy by 2035.
- Environmental issues would start to have a serious impact on the shape of the world economy over the next 15 years following a period in which the effects of global heating had become apparent more than previously feared.
- Sea levels are expected to have risen by 45cm from the 2000 base by 2035. This compares with the smaller 20cm rise by 2030 predicted two years ago.
- There would be weaker demand for fossil fuels and lower oil prices. The cost of a barrel of crude would fall below $30 by 2035, considering that more countries are making plans to make the transition to net carbon zero economy in the coming decades.
What they are saying
The CEBR submitted in the report that:
- “We see an economic cycle with rising interest rates in mid-2020, but the underlying trends have been accelerated by this point to a greener and more tech-based world as we move into the 2030s.”
Douglas McWilliams, the CEBR’s Deputy Chairman, said:
- “The big news in this forecast is the speed of growth of the Chinese economy. We expect it to become an upper-income economy during the current five-year plan period (2020-25). And we expect it to overtake the US a full five years earlier than we did a year ago. Other Asian economies are also shooting up the league table. One lesson for western policymakers, who have performed relatively badly during the pandemic, is that they need to pay much more attention to what is happening in Asia rather than simply looking at each other.”
Insecurity: Nigeria needs restructuring, state policing – Southern Governors
Governors from 17 states in Southern Nigeria have stated that Nigeria must be restructured to reflect true federalism leading to state policing.
Governors from 17 states in Southern Nigeria have stated that Nigeria must be restructured to reflect true federalism leading to state policing. They also called for change in the revenue allocation formula of the nation, and a review of government appointments relating to federal character, plus a national dialogue to address greater inclusiveness in existing governance arrangements.
This was disclosed in a statement by Oyo state Governor, Seyi Makinde, after 17 governors from the Southern part of Nigeria held the Southern Governors Forum Meeting at the Delta State Government House in Asaba, on Tuesday.
What Seyi Makinde said
“We discussed various national issues including security and restructuring. In view of the incursions of armed herders, criminals and bandits, we resolved to ban open grazing in all of Southern Nigeria.
Nigeria needs to be restructured to reflect true federalism leading to state policing and a change in the revenue allocation formula of the nation. We also recommended the establishment of ports in other states to address the congestion of the Apapa Port,” Makinde said.
He added that the Governors advised the FG to convoke a national dialogue to address greater inclusiveness in existing governance arrangements, and recommended a review of appointments into Federal Government agencies, including security agencies, to reflect federal character.
On open grazing of cattle
In a review of the statement signed by the Governors, they called for an end to open cattle grazing in the south stating:
“The incursion of armed herders, criminals and bandits into the Southern part of the country has presented a severe security challenge such that citizens are not able to live their normal lives. The meeting resolved that open grazing of cattle be banned across Southern Nigeria,” the Governors said.
Full text of Minister of Information’s speech on National Security
All Nigerians should continue to support our security agencies, who today face the added task of having to watch their backs while working to protect us.
TEXT OF THE PRESS CONFERENCE BY THE HON. MINISTER OF INFORMATION AND CULTURE, ALHAJI LAI MOHAMMED, ON NATIONAL SECURITY….IN LAGOS ON TUESDAY, 11 M
Good morning gentlemen, and thank you for once again honouring our invitation.
2. It is no longer news that our dear nation is facing security challenges.However, I have read comments saying @NigeriaGov is overwhelmed and doesn’t have a clue as to how to tackle the challenges.
Some have even gone as far as suggesting a truncation of the democratic order, a clearly treasonable stance.
3. Well, I am here today to assure all Nigerians that while the government acknowledges the security challenges we face at this time, from terrorism to kidnaping,
…banditry and farmer-herder conflict, it is definitely not overwhelmed and indeed it
has the wherewithal, as you will see in the days ahead, to confront the challenges headlong and restore law and order, peace and security.
4. One of the most difficult things to do, for a democratically-elected government, is to use the instruments of coercion against its own people. For example, while the nation’s military have superior firepower over the rag tag band of Boko Haram and ISWA,
the terrorists most often than not operate among the populace, either in our villages or towns, hence the military, in tackling them, is usually careful to avoid collateral damage. The same
applies to the kidnappers who abduct our school children.
Usually, the location of the kidnappers is not unknown to the security forces, but they still have to exercise caution in order not to hurt the same children they are trying to rescue.
Despite these inhibitions, the security forces have the wherewithal to decisively tackle the challenges.
5. Now, there is a growing dangerous trend which I will like to comment on. It is the practice of launching deadly attacks against the nation’s security personnel.
Soldiers as well as police, customs and other security agents have been killed and maimed in some parts of the country in this growing trend of targeting security forces.
I want to say, unequivocally, that any attack on our security men and women is an attack on the state and a declaration of war against the nation. It follows, therefore, that this will be countered with overwhelming force.
When those whose responsibility it is to protect us are themselves being subjected to mindless attacks, it can only be for one reason only: To instill fear and evoke a sense of pervasive insecurity among the people.
Whether known or unknown gunmen, those engaged in
this dastardly act will pay dearly for their actions.
6. Gentlemen, the government realizes that the security challenges we face today are systemic, hence has – in addition to kinetic efforts
– also embarked on various non-kinetic measures to most effectively tackle the challenges.
Recently, specifically on April 8th 2021, we held a #FGTownHallMeeting on national security in Kaduna, after which we came out with an implementable, 10-point agenda.
i. That the governance of human society should be based on Law rather than the whims and caprices of human beings and must be obeyed by all as all persons are equal before the law including the law givers.
ii. That there is an urgent need for political restructuring and not separation.
iii. That the Judiciary be decentralized and reformed through Constitutional Amendment to remove the unitary control of the Superior Courts.
iv. That governments at all levels should ensure free, qualitative and compulsory Primary Education for all children of school age.
v. That the Military, Police and other Security Agencies should be expanded in number, retrained, provided with modern equipment and technology to cope with emerging security challenges.
vi. That both religious and traditional leaders should encourage and promote inter-marriages for unity as contained in the 1999 Constitution as amended, Article 15, 3(c)…
…which prescribes inter-marriage among persons from different places of origin, or of different religious, ethnic or linguistic association or ties.
vii. That the establishment of State Police should be supported by the National and State Houses of Assembly to enable State Governments have firm control in addressing security issues.
viii. That Traditional Rulers should be given their age-long role of maintaining peace and security within their domain.
ix. That the Local Government Autonomy be actualized to enable them have control of their areas including the ungoverned spaces in tackling security challenges.
x. And finally that the Farmers/Herders clashes be addressed by establishment of ranches, grazing reserves with modern amenities to check the trans-humans of the herders.
7. As far as a national stakeholders’ engagement is concerned, the town hall meeting fits that bill. In a complete departure from our town hall meeting format, we invited panellists and discussants from outside the government .
The Lead Presenter was Prof. Jibrin Ibrahim, and the four discussants were Mrs Ibukun Awosika, the erstwhile
Chairperson of the First Bank; Prof. Saka Nuru, a renowned veterinary surgeon;
Prof Chudi Uwazuruike, an academic and a former member of the House of Representatives, and Prof Kokunre Eghafona, also from
The stakeholders who attended included all the service chiefs, members of the legislative and executive arms of government,
civil society organizations, traditional and religious leaders, women and youth groups as well as labour.
It is therefore baffling that some
commentators give the impression that the Administration is not engaging with the various stakeholders to find a lasting solution to the challenges facing the nation.
8. Now, we didn’t just engage in a talk shop. We have taken those resolutions to the National Economic Council, Chaired by His Excellency the Vice President, and which also includes all the state governors.
As a prelude to adopting the recommendations, the NEC has directed all state governors to organize state-wide consultation on them, and then revert to the Council in its next meeting.
9. Of course, you are all aware that the Honourable Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice has announced that the Federal Government is set to prosecute 400 suspects arrested for allegedly funding terrorism.
This is unprecedented and its a testament to the government’s determination to decisively tackle terrorism and other violent crimes.
10. While the government continues with these efforts to restore peace and security continues, I want to appeal to all of us to play our part in lowering the palpable tension in the polity as a result of the security challenges.
The first step is to tone down the rhetoric. While the media must continue to carry out its primary responsibility to inform, criticize and stimulate debate, it must also realize that it can only carry out this responsibility in an atmosphere of peace and security.
I am therefore appealing to the media to play its part in dousing the pervasive tension. Lending your platforms to uncompromising separatists and die-hard pessimists about the survival
of our nation can only overheat the polity and aggravate the security challenges.
This is not a call for censorship. It is a call for responsibility, in the national interest.
11. For the avoidance of doubt, the government retains total confidence in the ability of our security forces to tackle the
security challenges we are facing now, whether it is terrorism, banditry, kidnapping or even the farmer-herder conflict.
We therefore appeal to all Nigerians to continue to support our security agencies, who today face the added task of having to watch their backs while working to protect us. The least we can do is to give them our unalloyed support.
12. I thank you for your kind attention. I will now take your questions, which must be on the issues that I have addressed here.
Nairametrics | Company Earnings
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