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Economy & Politics

Manufacturing PMI slide into recession territory

This is the first clear data-driven sign that Nigeria is in a recession.

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The much-awaited Purchasers Managers Index (PMI) was released on May 29th by the Central Bank of Nigeria. According to the latest data, Manufacturing PMI in the month of May stood at 42.4 index points, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector for the first time after recording expansion for thirty-six consecutive months.

The figure compares to 51.1 and 49.2 index points in March 2020.

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The latest number now falls squarely within recession numbers and this is a clear sign that Nigeria is closer to recording a major contraction in the second quarter of the year.

Meanwhile, the nation’s PMI’s number hit a year low in April 2016 of 43.7, before plummeting further to 41.9 in June 2016. Nigeria subsequently fell into a recession by the end of the second quarter of 2016 and remained in recession throughout the course of the year.

The nation’s non-manufacturing PMI fell for a consecutive month to an all-time low of 25.3. The decline in manufacturing PMI was significant following thirty-six consecutive months of expansion, while the non-Manufacturing PMI contracted for the second consecutive month.

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A further look into the report shows that the manufacturing sector employment level index stood at 24.5 points in May, a decline compared to 47.1 points recorded in March and 56.4 points in February 2020.

This downturn is mostly attributed to the halt in economic activity as businesses in Nigeria result in layoffs and pay cuts in order to survive the effect of the lockdown.

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READ ALSO: What I’ll do if I was CBN Governor – Experts

Also, all 14 subsectors of the manufacturing sector, reported lower raw material inventories, consequently contracting the inventories index to 37.4 points in May 2020. An effect of the supply chain bottleneck associated with the lockdown measures implemented in most countries of the world.

Specifically, this figure translates the effect of lockdown procedures and trade restrictions implemented by Nigeria’s major trade partners in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Note that Nigeria’s major trade partners; China, USA, Spain, and the Netherlands account for about 45% of the nation’s import.

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What you need to know:  PMI is a survey that is conducted by the Statistics Department of the Central Bank of Nigeria. The respondents are purchasing and supply executives of manufacturing and non-manufacturing organizations in all 36 states in Nigeria and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

In his reaction to the data, the Central Bank Governor, Godwin Emefiele, in the Monetary Policy Communique, highlighted how dire the situation.

READ MORE: Insufficient electricity, unfavourable economy are among challenges hindering companies –CBN

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He said, “The contraction in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs was attributed to slower growth in production, new orders, employment level, raw materials, and input prices.

“The employment level index for the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs also contracted further to 25.5 and 32.0 index points, respectively, in May 2020 compared with 47.1 and 47.3 index points in March 2020.

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“Generally, the purchasing managers’ activities in May 2020, were largely affected by the lockdown of the global economy to curtail the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

The CBN thereafter reduced its monetary policy rate from 13.5% to 12.5% for the first time since March 2019.

READ ALSO: CBN projects macroeconomy confidence to rise by 118.3% in November

What this means: This survey is a bellwether for economic growth in Nigeria and helps the central bank gauge the mood of businesses in the economy.

PMI above 50 typically indicates a positive mood for the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. Two major causes for concern in the data are the new orders and employment levels.

At 42.8 points, the new orders index declined after thirty-sixth consecutive months of growth, indicating declines in new orders in May 2020. Three subsectors reported growth, 2 remained unchanged while 9 recorded declines in the review month.

Patricia

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Economy & Politics

N40 billion Probe: Drama as Reps order arrest of Ag MD NDDC after walking out on them

Pondei walked out of the hearing after accusing Hon. Tunji-Ojo of corruption.

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Reps order arrest of Ag MD NDDC

The corruption allegation drama going on between the National Assembly and the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) took a new twist as acting Managing Director of the commission, Prof. Kemebradikumo Pondei and his team on Thursday, walked out on legislators investigating the alleged N40 billion irregular expenditure in the commission.

In a reaction to the development, the House of Representative Committee on NDDC, has issued a warrant of arrest on the acting Managing Director.

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Pondei walked out of the investigative hearing on Thursday in Abuja, after accusing the Chairman of the House of Representative committee on NDDC, Olubumi Tunji-Ojo (APC-Ondo) of corruption.

READ MORE: Senate confirms appointment of board members for NDIC, law reform commission

According to the acting Managing Director, “We in the NDDC are not comfortable with the Chairman of this committee, presiding over the matter. He is an interested party and we do not believe that the NDDC can have justice because he cannot seat on his own case.”

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“We have no issue of appearing, we appeared before the Senate ad hoc committee and as long as he remains, we will not make any presentation,” he said

However, the issuing of warrant of arrest by the lawmakers, follows the unanimous adoption of the motion by Rep. Benjamin Kalu at the investigative hearing On Thursday in Abuja.

READ ALSO: NSITF board to investigate suspended MD and others over financial misconduct

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Kalu, who is the spokesman of the house, commended the committee members for the maturity that they have displayed despite the provocations of the NDDC boss.

Kalu in his statement said, ”I want to refer this committee as well as the invited guests to section 60 which says that, the Senate or the House of Representatives shall have powers to regulate its own procedure.

“It is within the parameters of the law that the house regulates its activities, this is a committee affair and not a personalised affair.

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“I want to move that this committee invokes the provisions of section 89 of the Constitution and invoke our powers on warrant of arrest to compel the agency to come and answer how they have administered the money appropriated to them,” he said.

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The committee, later passed a vote of confidence on the Chairman, while describing him as a man of integrity and a leader of high reputation.

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Earlier in his speech, Tunji-Ojo said that documents from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Office of the Accountant General of the Federation when there officials appeared before the investigative panel showed that NDDC had spent N81.5 billion between January and May 2020.

 

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Economy & Politics

Just in: Suspended EFCC boss, Ibrahim Magu, finally released from detention

Magu’s lawyer confirmed his release from the custody of the DSS.

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EFCC to help AMCON recover bad debts

The suspended acting Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crime Commission (EFCC) has been released from police custody after about 10 days in detention.

According to a monitored report, this was confirmed by his lawyer, Tosin Ojaomo, who said that the EFCC boss is no longer under custody.

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The suspended EFCC boss was invited by the presidential probe panel headed by Ayo Salami, a retired President of the Appeal Court to the Presidential Villa in Abuja on July 6 over allegations bordering on corruption and financial misconduct.

He was later moved to Area 10 Force Criminal Investigation Department (FCID) of the police in Abuja where he has since been detained.

Just earlier today, the Inspector-General of Police, Mohammed Adamu, asked Magu, to direct his bail application to the presidential probe panel.

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This was in response to a request by Mr Oluwatosin Ojaomo, Magu’s legal representative, who asked the IGP to grant bail to his client on self-recognisance after the suspended EFCC chief had spent four days in custody.

But in a letter dated July 14, 2020, and addressed to Mr Ojaomo, the IGP said the police force is not investigating and detaining Magu, so, it cannot grant the bail request.

It also advised the lawyer to redirect his request to the chairman of the presidential probe panel for appropriate action.

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Economy & Politics

OPEC+ to reduce production cuts in August to 7.7 million barrels a day

OPEC+ is preparing to increase production in a period demand picks

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OPEC+ to reduce production cuts in August to 7.7 million barrels a day

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies have agreed to increase crude oil supply starting from next month, as demand continues to rise to pre-pandemic levels.

OPEC+ agreed to reduce the daily production cut from 9.6 million barrels a day to 7.7 million barrels a day from August. The reduction in cuts was backed by both Saudi Arabia and Russia, including other participating oil ministers in the virtual conference.

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This comes nearly 3 months of production cuts after oil fell to peak lows in April, last month OPEC production reached its lowest level in nearly 30 years since the gulf war. The decision to taper the previous reduction was expected earlier today as the body also talked on extended production cuts for countries like Nigeria, Iraq, and others for not meeting their production cuts for the months of May to June.

However, the risk remains on the strength of a demand recovery as the virus seems to be rebounding in the United States. Saudi Oil Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman revealed that the extra supply due to the already planned ease of production cuts will be consumed as demand rises. He added that economies globally are beginning to reopen, however, “this is a cautious and gradual process. The recovery signs are unmistakable.”

READ MORE: OPEC launches Annual Statistical Bulletin (ASB)

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Nigeria’s position: OPEC expects the increase in supply to be offset by countries like Nigeria that did not meet full compliance on production cuts. Nigeria will join Iraq and Angola by engaging in a further 842,000 barrels a day of cuts through September. It is still unclear if Nigeria and the other defaulting members would be able to meet production cuts compliance as Nigeria has historically failed to meet production cuts numbers before.

Prince Abdulaziz, who has made it his mission to end the quota cheating that has dogged OPEC+ since its inception in 2016, said these compensation cuts are a crucial principle and the group must resist the temptation to relax.

OPEC+ is preparing to increase production in a period demand picks as Prince Abdulaziz has ensured that no country heats on its production cuts, adding that its essential the group cuts and increases production with one voice. The organization cut production to almost just 10% of global supply which enabled prices to rebound to over $40 after April’s lows.

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Russia says the tapering goes in hand with the current rising demands and expects output hikes to be consumed in markets of OPEC members as it local demands recovers. Saudi Arabia expects flat exports next month as demand rises locally.

 

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