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What I’ll do if I was CBN Governor – Experts

“As a nation, we cannot afford to continue relying on the world for our food, education, and healthcare.”  said Godwin Emefiele.

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“What if the COVID-19 onslaught continues in a second wave? For how long shall we continue to rely on the world for anything and everything at every time?” said Godwin Emefiele, Nigeria’s Central Bank governor. He added, “As a nation, we cannot afford to continue relying on the world for our food, education, and healthcare.” 

In keeping with his vow to run Nigeria’s Central Bank effectively by supporting economic growth and the developmental necessity for Nigeria, Godwin Emefiele has made sure Nigeria’s Central Bank becomes an important driver of growth to Nigeria’s economy

Nairametrics interviewed investment bankers and financial experts asking for their opinions on what policies they would implement if they were the helm of CBN.

Their responses were as interesting as they were varied ranging from diversifying the economy, adjusting the value of the naira to fighting inflation

(READ MORE:Naira appreciates to N450/$ in parallel market, as CBN intervenes)

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CBN sets N650,000 as accreditation fee for personalised cheques, Managing Nigeria’s Central Bank, experts offer insights

Anthony Okafor, Ph.D. Head, Investments & Strategy at Vyne Investment Partners

The Nigerian economy requires an economic vaccine to stimulate the economy and combat the impending recession. The turbulence in the global markets caused by the pandemic and the decline in crude oil prices has accelerated the risk levels in the Nigerian financial system. Monetary policy efforts need to be targeted at sustaining the economy through this cycle.

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The aggregate money supply in the economy needs to be elevated via a combination of conventional and non-conventional cash injection measures, including a significant reduction in cash reserve ratios to salvage the economy.

Concerns about inflation may have to be subordinated to allow for productivity and a chance to restart the economy. The CBN’s 50 billion naira fund for households and small businesses is commendable; however, more of such funds would be needed in the coming weeks.

The economy has struggled to recover after the 2014 oil price shock, implying that effective policy measures need to be activated, including the injection of further stimulus packages to support the real sector. The economy has lost over 70% of its revenue, fiscal and monetary authorities might be looking at intervention funds between $50 billion to $70 billion in the next three years.

The earlier $22.7 billion borrowings put on hold needs to be revisited to fund this intervention as opposed to a seasonal devaluation of the naira.

Devaluing the currency is not a magic wand, and currency devaluation as a means of addressing revenue shocks is merely a race to the bottom.

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(READ MORE:Nigeria’s food security, GDP growth hinge on financial inclusion of farmers)

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Central Bank of Nigeria, Managing Nigeria’s Central Bank, experts offer insights

Omeiza Makoju, ACCA, energy expert with Nigeria’s leading oil firm.

“Never let a good crisis go to waste.” This quote has been attributed to Winston Churchill and applies to us at this dire time. In a Nigerian context, the COVID-19 pandemic, dwindling oil prices, and the consequential economic crisis we currently face provides us with a rare opportunity to take drastic measures to address our problems as a nation.

These will be bitter pills to swallow at this time but the crisis has made it easier for our leaders to administer the pills. At the helm of the CBN (Central Bank of Nigeria), Mr. Godwin Emefiele has taken several commendable steps to stimulate sustainable economic growth at this trying time.

The most notable is the plan to inject N3.5T stimulus into the economy in the form of various interventions. Another notable move was the adjustment of the exchange rate in response to “market fundamentals.”

The question as to how well these steps will improve the lives of the average Nigerian still begs to be answered. Putting myself in the shoes of the CBN (Central Bank of Nigeria) governor at this time, I would devalue the Naira and put more emphasis on improving the rate of financial inclusion in Nigeria.

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(READ MORE:CBN, Bankers’ Committee order banks not to lay-off any staff)

Taking these drastic actions will be as bold and as progressive as those taken by Mele Kyari, NNPC (Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation) GMD, in removing the fuel subsidies from every Nigerians pocket.

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These will certainly be difficult to contend with and will be fraught with political controversy as was the removal of fuel subsidies. Naira Devaluation The devaluation will be hard on us in the short-run but with the right monetary policies put in place by the CBN to support the vision; the temporary difficulty will lead to sustainable economic growth for our nation in the long-run.

Financial Inclusion Coincidentally, the CBN had set a target to achieve 80% financial inclusion in Nigeria this year, 2020.

But EFInA reported in February this year that it is unlikely that this target will be met due to demographic changes. Interestingly, the subscriber records of the NCC (Nigerian Communications Commission) show a teledensity of over 98% (a population estimate of 190 million was used) as at February 2020.

Looking at all this information together reveals a compelling opportunity for the CBN to cut red tape and work closely with relevant stakeholders to do much more in leveraging technology to achieve their financial inclusion target.

The current business realities of social distancing, working remotely and the unprecedented dependence on technology during this pandemic also supports this financial inclusion strategy. No matter what happens, our outstanding resilience as Nigerians will see us through.

(READ MORE:Official: CBN says N360/$1 not devaluation but “adjustment of price”)

 

Princejoe Nnaji Corporate Strategy Analyst at Nigeria’s top tier-1 bank.

As the CBN governor, I will pursue policies that support the exportation of goods and services that are essential to diversify the Nigerian economy. The goal is to increase revenue generation which would drive sustainable growth and increase our external reserves.

The policies should be aimed at encouraging the local processing of raw materials to semi-finished form or finished form in the medium or long term respectively instead of exporting raw materials without any value add. This, in turn, will generate more value, boost local production, create employment, and increase investment in the infrastructure sector which is a key driver of GDP growth.

These policies cannot be introduced in isolation because there is a need to create a conducive business environment to aid these businesses to thrive. Along with ease of getting credit, the Central Bank of Nigeria will need to co-ordinate with the government across all levels to sustain the gains on the World Bank’s ease of doing business ranking (currently ranked 131 among 190 economies).

READ ALSO: Covid-19: SBM Intel lists out industries that may be out of business post Coronavirus

Emmanuel Emeka Orji Emerging and Frontier Markets | Fixed Income | Comercio Partners

Whilst the move to unify and eliminate the multiple exchange rate regime promised to the IMF is very much welcomed and a step in the right direction, the CBN still needs to intensify its efforts by adopting some other tactics in the bid to save the Nigerian economy.

(READ MORE:Just-in: CBN Governor guarantees investors over forex repatriation)

Furthermore, whilst a low-interest environment may be good for the local manufacturing and real sector, we believe our interest rates are significantly low compared to our peers in the Sub Saharan African region, therefore, putting Nigeria at a risk of attracting less FDIs and FPIs.

Nevertheless, given that our economy is largely import driven and a lack of foreign inflow could further put pressure on our external reserves, we believe the CBN needs to continue to find ways to keep our interest rates competitive whilst also continuing the various intervention programs to help grow the real sector and ultimately significantly reduce the reliance on importation

 

Olumide Adesina is a France-born Nigerian. He is a Certified Investment Trader, with more than 15 years of working expertise in Investment Trading and Financial Market Analysis. Member of the Chartered Financial Analyst Society. You can follow Olumide on Twitter @tokunboadesina or email [email protected]

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Currencies

U.S dollar up, U.S GDP expands at record 33.1%

Investors selling out other G7 currencies and increasing their buying pressure on the U.S dollar.

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The US dollar remains king, U.S dollar gains against major currencies, America threatens China with sanctions., U.S dollar slumps against major currencies, investors become optimistic about global demand, U.S Dollar Stands Firm, Foreign Exchange Traders Remain Neutral 

The world’s safe-haven currency, the U.S dollar is enjoying a robust trading session, amid impressive data coming from the world’s largest economy, as investors are selling out other G7 currencies and increasing their buying pressure on the U.S dollar.

READ: U.S dollar drops, low U.S interest rates expected to persist for long

What we know

At the time of writing, the U.S dollar index – used to track the U.S dollar strength against 6 major currencies was up by 0.6%.

The world’s largest economy bounced incredibly well with a record – yet temporary surge of growth in Q3, as companies restarted and stimulus cash triggered more consumer spending – reversing fears coming from some quarters that the U.S economy was on the brink of collapsing amid surging COVID-19 crisis.

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Explore some Advanced Financial Calculators on Nairametrics

  • U.S GDP grew 7.4% from the prior period, a quarterly rise that equals an annualized pace of 33.1%, as seen from the U.S Commerce Department’s initial estimate released today.
  • The data beat leading economists’ estimates for a 32% increase, which was already well above prediction three months ago for an 18% surge. Personal spending fueled the surge in growth, climbing an annualized 40.7% – also a record, while business investment and housing also posted strong increases.

READ: Credit to Nigerian economy falls to N38.67 trillion

Quick fact

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The US Dollar Index tracks the American dollar against other major currencies such as the Japanese Yen, British Pound Sterling, Swedish Krona, the Euro, and more.

Individuals hoping to meet foreign exchange payment obligations, via dollar transactions to European countries, and Japan, would need fewer US dollars in meeting such obligations.

READ: Investors on rampage as Ethereum posts 10.3% gain

What they are saying

Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi, also spoke on key issues prevailing in the safe-haven currency market

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“The US dollar is trading a bit firmer today as European and US equities fall on concerns over rising COVID-19 cases on both sides of the Atlantic.

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“But it’s the laundry list of worries, be it pre-election caution, US Congress failure to launch (stimulus) or France and Germany lockdown concerns, risk aversion demand for the greenback is nothing new.

“Under these conditions, the US dollar tends to shine bright as the cleanest shirt in that dirty laundry list.”

Why the US dollar rallies higher

In spite of the world’s largest economy having a surge in COVID-19 caseloads, forex traders believe that the US recent data has now shown that the world’s largest economy is in good shape and recent price action showed an oversold signal in the past few days.

This means that any time the value of the safe-haven currency drops below the 93.00 support level, traders increase their long positions.

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Currencies

Daily Parallel Market Exchange Rate – ₦460/$1

The US dollar closed at ₦460/US$1 in the parallel market

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Forex, NIGERIA: Daily Parallel Market, Exchange Rate

The exchange rate between the naira and the US dollar for today (Thursday, October 29th 2020), closed at 460/US$1 in the parallel market. The rate had also closed at 460/US$1 on Wednesday, October 28th 2020.

  • Naira:460
  • Dollar: $1
  • Date: October 29th, 2020

The exchange rate between the naira and the British pound sterling closed at ₦590/₤1 on Thursday, 29th October 2020. The rate had also closed at ₦590/₤1 on Wednesday, October 28th 2020.

  • Naira: ₦590
  • Pounds Sterling: ₤1
  • Date: October 29th, 2020

Explore Economic Research Data From Nairametrics on Nairalytics

The exchange rate between the naira and the European euro closed at ₦535/€1 on Thursday 29th October 2020. The rate had also closed at ₦535/€1 on Wednesday, October 28th 2020.

  • Naira: ₦535
  • Euro: €1
  • Date: October 29th, 2020

Activity: US Dollar closed at 460/US$1 in the parallel market

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READ ALSO: The risk of buying Forex at black market rate of N460/$1 

DateCurrencyBuy(AM)Sell(AM)Buy(PM)Sell(PM)Volatility
10/29/2020Dollar457460457460Low
10/29/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/29/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/28/2020Dollar457460457460Low
10/28/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/28/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/27/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/27/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/27/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/26/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/26/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/26/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/23/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/23/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/23/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/22/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/22/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/22/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/21/2020Dollar456460456460Low
10/21/2020Pounds582593582593Low
10/21/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/20/2020Dollar456460456460Low
10/20/2020Pounds582593582593Low
10/20/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/19/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/19/2020Pounds583592583592Low
10/19/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/16/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/16/2020Pounds583592583592Low
10/16/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/15/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/15/2020Pounds583592583592Low
10/15/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/14/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/14/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/14/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/13/2020Dollar453458455460Low
10/13/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/13/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/12/2020Dollar452458452458Low
10/12/2020Pounds580585580585Low
10/12/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/09/2020Dollar452457452457Low
10/09/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/09/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/08/2020Dollar452457452457Low
10/08/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/08/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/07/2020Dollar452457452457Low
10/07/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/07/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/06/2020Dollar452457452457Low
10/06/2020Pounds580585580585Low
10/06/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/05/2020Dollar452455452455Low
10/05/2020Pounds570580570580Low
10/05/2020Euro540545540545Low
10/02/2020Dollar460465460465Low
10/02/2020Pounds575585575585Low
10/02/2020Euro530540530540Low
10/01/2020Dollar460465460465Low
10/01/2020Pounds575585575585Low
10/01/2020Euro530540530540Low
9/30/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/30/2020Pounds570580570580Low
9/30/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/29/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/29/2020Pounds565575570580Low
9/29/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/28/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/28/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/28/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/25/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/25/2020Pounds565575565575Low
9/25/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/24/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/24/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/24/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/23/2020Dollar455460455460Low
9/23/2020Pounds580585580585Low
9/23/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/22/2020Dollar455460455460Low
9/22/2020Pounds575585575580Low
9/22/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/21/2020Dollar453455450455Low
9/21/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/21/2020Euro525530525530Low
9/18/2020Dollar450460450460Low
9/18/2020Pounds575595575595Low
9/18/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/17/2020Dollar455460455460Low
9/17/2020Pounds570580570580Low
9/17/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/16/2020Dollar450460450460Low
9/16/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/16/2020Euro525530525530Low
9/15/2020Dollar450460450460Low
9/15/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/15/2020Euro525530525530Low
9/14/2020Dollar445455445455Low
9/14/2020Pounds560575560575Low
9/14/2020Euro515525515525Low
09/11/2020Dollar450455450455Low
09/11/2020Pounds555565555565Low
09/11/2020Euro525530525530Low
09/10/2020Dollar455460455460Low
09/10/2020Pounds545560545560Low
09/10/2020Euro525530525530Low
09/09/2020Dollar430440430440Low
09/09/2020Pounds540555540555Low
09/09/2020Euro500510500510Low
09/08/2020Dollar435440435440Low
09/08/2020Pounds540550540550Low
09/08/2020Euro505515505515Low
09/07/2020Dollar435440435440Low
09/07/2020Pounds525530525530Low
09/07/2020Euro505515505515Low
09/04/2020Dollar425440425440Low
09/04/2020Pounds560580560580Low
09/04/2020Euro505515505515Low
09/03/2020Dollar425440425440Low
09/03/2020Pounds560580560580Low
09/03/2020Euro520535505515High
09/02/2020Dollar425440425440Low
09/02/2020Pounds570580560580Low
09/02/2020Euro535540520535Low
09/01/2020Dollar462465435440High
09/01/2020Pounds565575570580Low
09/01/2020Euro535540535540Low
8/31/2020Dollar463470460465High
8/31/2020Pounds585595580590Low
8/31/2020Euro540545540545Low
8/28/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/28/2020Pounds580595580595Low
8/28/2020Euro545552545552Low
8/27/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/27/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/27/2020Euro542552542552Low
8/26/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/26/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/26/2020Euro542552542552Low
8/25/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/25/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/25/2020Euro542552542552Low
8/24/2020Dollar473477473477Low
8/24/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/24/2020Euro542550542550Low
8/21/2020Dollar474477474477Low
8/21/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/21/2020Euro545550545550Low
8/20/2020Dollar475478473477Low
8/20/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/20/2020Euro540550540550Low
8/19/2020Dollar475480475480Low
8/19/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/19/2020Euro540550540550Low
8/18/2020Dollar477480477480Low
8/18/2020Pounds575580575580Low
8/18/2020Euro545550545550Low
8/17/2020Dollar470475470475Low
8/17/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/17/2020Euro525535525535Low
8/14/2020Dollar470475470475Low
8/14/2020Pounds570580570580Low
8/14/2020Euro525535520535Low
8/13/2020Dollar470475470475Low
8/13/2020Pounds570575565575Low
8/13/2020Euro525530520530Low
08/12/2020Dollar470475470475Low
08/12/2020Pounds570575570575Low
08/12/2020Euro520530520530Low
08/11/2020Dollar477485477485Low
08/11/2020Pounds572584572584Low
08/11/2020Euro510523520535Low
08/10/2020Dollar477485477485Low
08/10/2020Pounds572584572584Low
08/10/2020Euro510523520535High
08/07/2020Dollar475486475486Low
08/07/2020Pounds578585578585Low
08/07/2020Euro536550536550Low
08/06/2020Dollar470480475486Low
08/06/2020Pounds575587578585Low
08/06/2020Euro534545536550Low
08/05/2020Dollar465475473483Low
08/05/2020Pounds570580575587Low
08/05/2020Euro525540532545Low
08/04/2020Dollar470480470480Low
08/04/2020Pounds560570560570Low
08/04/2020Euro520530520530Low
08/03/2020Dollar470480470480Low
08/03/2020Pounds560570560570Low
08/03/2020Euro520530520530Low
7/31/2020Dollar470480470485High
7/31/2020Pounds570582575585Low
7/31/2020Euro500520505520Low
7/30/2020Dollar470490470485High
7/30/2020Pounds550570550580High
7/30/2020Euro495520500525High
7/29/2020Dollar468475467475Low
7/29/2020Pounds575585580590Low
7/29/2020Euro530540530545Low
7/28/2020Dollar469475467475Low
7/28/2020Pounds575593580595Low
7/28/2020Euro550560540550Low
7/27/2020Dollar465473466473Low
7/27/2020Pounds570580575583Low
7/27/2020Euro510520515530Low
7/24/2020Dollar465472464472Low
7/24/2020Pounds570580572582Low
7/24/2020Euro510520505520Low
7/23/2020Dollar460472465472Low
7/23/2020Pounds565575565580Low
7/23/2020Euro510520505520Low
7/22/2020Dollar465472465472Low
7/22/2020Pounds565575560578Low
7/22/2020Euro510525510528Low
7/21/2020Dollar461472462472Low
7/21/2020Pounds560573560575Low
7/21/2020Euro498515500520Low
7/20/2020Dollar460473462473Low
7/20/2020Pounds550570555575Low
7/20/2020Euro495505500510Low
7/17/2020Dollar462470460470Low
7/17/2020Pounds560570558570Low
7/17/2020Euro490500490500Low
7/16/2020Dollar460470460470Low
7/16/2020Pounds558565560570Low
7/16/2020Euro485495485499Low
7/15/2020Dollar455465455470Low
7/15/2020Pounds560565558570Low
7/15/2020Euro485495488498Low
7/14/2020Dollar448462455470Low
7/14/2020Pounds540550557570Low
7/14/2020Euro485495489498Low
7/13/2020Dollar450460448462Low
7/13/2020Pounds540550540550Low
7/13/2020Euro485495485495Low
07/10/2020Dollar453460458465Low
07/10/2020Pounds520525550555High
07/10/2020Euro465467510520High
07/09/2020Dollar455461455463Low
07/09/2020Pounds550558550562Low
07/09/2020Euro495504498505Low
07/08/2020Dollar455461455461Low
07/08/2020Pounds550558550558Low
07/08/2020Euro495504495504Low
07/07/2020Dollar455461455461Low
07/07/2020Pounds550558550558Low
07/07/2020Euro495502495502Low
07/06/2020Dollar455462455461Low
07/06/2020Pounds550562547555Low
07/06/2020Euro495502496502Low
07/03/2020Dollar455462454461Low
07/03/2020Pounds548560550560Low
07/03/2020Euro495505495502Low
07/02/2020Dollar455462454461Low
07/02/2020Pounds548560550560Low
07/02/2020Euro495505495502Low
07/01/2020Dollar455462455462Low
07/01/2020Pounds548560548560Low
07/01/2020Euro495505495505Low
6/30/2020Dollar452460452460Low
6/30/2020Pounds547560547560Low
6/30/2020Euro495505495505Low
6/29/2020Dollar450460450460Low
6/29/2020Pounds547560547560Low
6/29/2020Euro495505495505Low
6/26/2020Dollar452457452460Low
6/26/2020Pounds547557547560Low
6/26/2020Euro490498490502Low
6/25/2020Dollar452457450455Low
6/25/2020Pounds547557547560Low
6/25/2020Euro490498490499Low
6/24/2020Dollar450460450455Low
6/24/2020Pounds545555545555Low
6/24/2020Euro490495488498Low
6/23/2020Dollar450460445455Low
6/23/2020Pounds545555545555Low
6/23/2020Euro490495490495Low
6/22/2020Dollar450455450455Low
6/22/2020Pounds545555545555Low
6/22/2020Euro488498488498Low
6/19/2020Dollar445455445455Low
6/19/2020Pounds540553540553Low
6/19/2020Euro480490480490Low
6/18/2020Dollar445452445452Low
6/18/2020Pounds537550537550Low
6/18/2020Euro475490475490Low
6/17/2020Dollar445452445452Low
6/17/2020Pounds540553537550Low
6/17/2020Euro475490475490Low
6/16/2020Dollar440450445452Low
6/16/2020Pounds540550540553Low
6/16/2020Euro475485475490Low
6/15/2020Dollar440450440450Low
6/15/2020Pounds540550540550Low
6/15/2020Euro475485475485Low
06/12/2020Dollar440450440450Low
06/12/2020Pounds538550538550Low
06/12/2020Euro470485470485Low
06/11/2020Pounds538550538550Low
06/11/2020Dollar440450440450Low
06/11/2020Euro470485470485Low
06/10/2020Pounds538550540553Low
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Data is collated from various black market dealers on the mainland and island parts of Lagos State where forex is sold. The price quoted daily on this page represents the average price obtained by our Research Team. Our prices are a guide and could be slightly different from the price you get when you eventually decide to buy or sell. This is a daily tracker and updated close of business. See table below for parallel market exchange rate dating to 2019.

GTBank 728 x 90
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Currencies

Naira falls at black market as dollar supply drops

At the black market,  the Naira depreciated against the dollar to close at N465/$1 on Wednesday.

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Naira maintains stability at forex markets as dollar supply rise by 57%, Exchange rate, dollar, Foreign Direct Investment, Global Investment, Naira appreciates at I & E window, hits N384 to $1

Forex turnover drops by 47.5% as Nigeria’s exchange rate at the NAFEX window appreciated against the dollar to close at N385.67/$1 during intra-day trading on Wednesday, October 28.

Also, the naira depreciated against the dollar, closing at N465/$1 at the parallel market on Wednesday, October 28, 2020, as businesses open up after relaxation of the curfew initially imposed to curtail the widespread violence that followed the hijacked #EndSARS protests.

READ: Exchange rate falls across the forex markets as CBN devalues the naira

This is also as businesses shut down due to the outbreak of violence in Lagos and some parts of the country during the protests against the special anti-robbery unit (SARS) and police brutality by the Nigerian youths.

Parallel market: According to information from Abokifx – a prominent FX tracking website, at the black market where forex is traded unofficially, the Naira depreciated against the dollar to close at N465/$1 on Wednesday. This represents a N2 drop when compared to the N463/$1 that it exchanged for on Tuesday, October 27.

GTBank 728 x 90

READ: Naira falls big across all forex market despite another $50 million allocation to BDCs

  • The local currency had strengthened by about 7.8% within the one week in September at the black market, as the CBN introduced some measures targeted at exporters and importers, in order to try to boost the supply of dollars in the foreign exchange market, and reduce the high demand for forex by traders.
  • The CBN has sold over $500 million to BDCs since they resumed forex sales on Monday, September 7, 2020. This was expected to inject more liquidity to the retail end of the foreign exchange market and discourage hoarding and speculation.
  • However, the exchange rate against the dollar has remained volatile after the initial gains made, following the CBN’s resumption of sales of dollars to the BDCs.
  • The President of the Association of Bureau De Change Operators, Aminu Gwadebe, said he expects the impact of the extra liquidity in the market to be gradual.
  • Despite the drop in speculative buying of foreign exchange, the huge demand backlog by manufacturers and foreign investors still puts pressure and creates a volatile situation in the foreign exchange market.

READ: Oil marketers back out of NLC, TUC nationwide strike, support deregulation policy

NAFEX: The Naira appreciated against the dollar at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window on Wednesday, closing at N385.67/$1.

GTBank 728 x 90
  • This represents a 33 kobo gain when compared to the N386/$1 that it exchanged for on Tuesday, October 27.
  • The opening indicative rate was N385.89 to a dollar on Wednesday. This represents a 97 kobo drop when compared to the N384.92 that was recorded on Tuesday.
  • The N393.42 to a dollar is the highest rate during intraday trading before it closed at N385.67 to a dollar. It also sold for as low as N380/$1 during intraday trading.

READ: Naira maintains stability at forex markets as dollar supply rise by 57%

Forex turnover: Forex turnover at the Investor and Exporters (I&E) window declined by 47.5% on Wednesday, October 28, 2020.

  • According to the data tracked by Nairametrics from FMDQ, forex turnover dropped from $138.60 million on Tuesday, October 27, 2020, to $73.01 million on Wednesday, October 28, 2020.
  • The CBN is still struggling to clear the backlog of foreign exchange demand, especially by foreign investors wishing to repatriate their funds.
  • The drop in dollar supply after the previous trading day’s huge increase reinforces the volatility of the foreign exchange market. The supply of dollars has been on a decline for months due to low oil prices and the absence of foreign capital inflow into the country.
  • As part of the measure to check forex abuse and check illegal transactions, the CBN last month directed the freezing of accounts of about 38 companies.
  • The average daily forex sale for last week was about $169.93 million, which represents a huge increase from the $34.5 million that was recorded the previous week.
  • Total forex trading at the NAFEX window in the month of September was about $1.98 billion, compared to $843.97 million in August.
  • The exchange rate is still being affected by low oil prices, dollar scarcity, a backlog of forex demand, and a shaky economy that has been hit by the coronavirus pandemic.

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