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NSE loses N2 trillion in value in Q1 2020, as oil plunges 65% QoQ

The market capitalisation of the Nigerian Stock Exchange, which represents the market value of all listed companies, lost about N2 trillion in the first quarter of 2020.

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Stock market gains N110.7 billion on Friday trade session , Investors lose N153.6 billion on Monday as ASI dip 1.05% , Top Nigerian stocks, too cheap to ignore, Nigeria bourse crash analysis, Nigerian bourse loses N2 trillion in value in Q1 2020, as oil plunged 65% QOQ

The market capitalisation of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), which represents the market value of all listed companies, lost about N2 trillion in the first quarter of 2020.

Nigerian equities suffered high price volatility during the period under review. This happened as a result of the impact of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, as well as the crash in global oil prices.

The Details: The Nigerian bourse’s market value dropped by N1.87 trillion to close the period under review at N11.1 trillion from N12.971 trillion. The Nigerian All-Share Index (ASI) also dropped by 20.73% to close Q1 2020 at 26,867.79 points.

Do note that the ASI is the overall market performance measure which monitors the general market movement of all listed equities on the NSE.

READ MORE: Bulls lift Nigerian bourse up 0.10%, as trading volume picks up

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Performance by sectors: The NSE’s sectorial performances were also negative, as all indexes closed the period with a drop in value. The NSE Consumer Goods Index plunged the most by 44.84% while the NSE Banking Index followed with a decline of 30.64%. Also, the NSE 30 index lost 23.03% in value.

NSE in 2019, events & outlook, Foreign portfolio transactions drop by N280 billion as foreign investors remain net sellers of Nigerian equities , 2020 Nigerian Equities Outlook: Breaking the Jinx?, Equities: Foreign investors remain net sellers for second consecutive year , Investors part with N152.1 billion as bearish trade extends, Stocks close February in deep red as investment options dry up for Nigerians, Economy: Domestic investors hold sway in January

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s most important commodity (i.e., crude oil), registered its worst quarterly performance in the first 3 months of the year. This is due to the COVID-19 pandemic which has continued to weaken global oil demand.

Records show that Brent Crude plunged more than 65% during the first three months of 2020, registering its worst-ever quarter. Brent Crude also recorded its worst-ever monthly performance in March, falling over 54%.

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Furthermore, WTI Crude fell more than 66% in the first quarter of 2020, recording its worst-ever quarterly performance since its inception in 1983. WTI futures also plunged over 54% last month, registering its worst-ever monthly performance.

Finally, the ongoing capital outflow from emerging and frontier markets like Nigeria has been attributed to the imminent global recession. This is according to the benchmark indexes of many global stocks markets show.

READ ALSO: Bears dominate Nigerian bourse Index down 0.94%, trading volume remains low

In the meantime, the market outlook remains unstable during this lockdown period and beyond, due to the notably high volatility in developed and developing markets. The seeming positive sentiment on quarter-end window dressing and the bouquet of stimulus packages have so far been unable to support the market.

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Olumide Adesina is a France-born Nigerian. He is a Certified Investment Trader, with more than 15 years of working expertise in Investment trading. Follow Olumide on Twitter @tokunboadesina or email [email protected] He is a Member of the Chartered Financial Analyst Society.

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Coronavirus

Combined Vaccine Manufacturing capacity to hit 6.8 billion doses in 2021

COVID-19 vaccine manufacturing capacity is expected to hit 6.8 billion doses in 2021.

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Covid-19: First world nations oppose waiving intellectual rights for vaccine development

Meristem Group disclosed that the combined effort in manufacturing COVID-19 vaccines for global use is expected to yield about 6.8 billion doses in 2021.

This was revealed in the Annual Outlook 2021 report presented by Meristem Group, titled Bracing for a different future.”

According to the report, the existing manufacturing capacity will only be sufficient enough to immunize about 44% of the global population, which would create obvious vaccination gap and make the pandemic last longer than necessary.

The report states,

  • The cold temperature requirements for vaccine storage pose major logistics concern particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and other low-income countries. WHO estimates that about 50% of vaccines are wasted every year, largely due to a lack of temperature control.”

According to the report, the estimated 6.8billion doses are expected to be collaboratively manufactured as follows:  CanSino – 0.2billion, AstraZeneca – 3.0 billion, Gamaleya – 0.3billion, Moderna – 0.4billion, Pfizer-BioNtech – 1.3billion, SinoPharm – 1billion, and SinoVac – 0.6billion.

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What you should know

  • The global population as of 2020 is 7.8billion and 70% is required to achieve herd immunity (otherwise called herd protection)
  • Herd Immunity or herd protection is achieved when you have most of the population immunized against an infectious disease.
  • 2 doses of the vaccines are required for each person for immunity.
  • It is expected that between 11 and 15 billion doses would be required to achieve the desired herd immunity, globally.
  • From all indications, herd immunity may not be achieved until mid or late 2022, with the subsisting 100% vaccine production capacity utilization in 2021 – with neither production nor distribution losses.
  • To achieve regulatory approval, a vaccine must undergo a three-stage clinical development process after the exploratory and pre-clinical stages and the U.S Food and Drug Administration (FDA) sets a phase 3 efficacy benchmark of 50%.

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Coronavirus

Covid-19: Global deaths surpass 2 million

Global casualty record for the Covid-19 pandemic surpassed 2 million deaths on Friday.

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Nigeria blows past 40,000 COVID-19 cases

The Global casualty record for the Covid-19 pandemic surpassed 2 million deaths on Friday, with the United States accounting for 1 in every 5 deaths, as it has recorded over 386,000 casualties so far.

This was disclosed in a report by Reuters in its Covid-19 tally reported on Friday evening.

After the United States, Brazil, Mexico, India and the U.K contribute nearly 50% of the combined casualties.

The report also disclosed that an average of 11,900 casualties are recorded per day in year 2021, despite the fact that it took 9 months for the world to record 1 million casualties.

United Nations Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, said the 2 million death count was “a heart-wrenching milestone.”

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  • “Behind this staggering number are names and faces: the smile now only a memory, the seat forever empty at the dinner table, the room that echoes with the silence of a loved one,” he added.

The WHO warned that 2021 could be tougher due to the nature of new variants which transmit the disease faster.

  • “We are going into a second year of this. It could even be tougher given the transmission dynamics and some of the issues that we are seeing,” WHO Chief, Mike Ryan, said.

Analysts expect the global death toll to surpass 3 million by April 2021.

What you should know 

  • Nairametrics reported that the total number of covid-19 cases in Nigeria had surpassed the 100,000 mark on Sunday 10th January 2021, according to the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control.
  • The African Union stated that it secured 270 million Covid-19 vaccine doses for the continent from drug manufacturers to supplement the COVAX programme, a step towards the commencement of the complex task of vaccinating over 1.2 billion people with limited financial resources.
  • The Nigeria Centre for Disease Control on Friday 15th January 2021, announced that 1,867 new cases of the covid-19 virus were recorded across 24 states in the country. This represents the highest number of cases recorded in a single day.

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Debt Securities

Interest rates will remain low until the end of H1 2021 – Meristem Securities

Meristem Securities has argued that interest rates will remain low until, at least, the end of H1 2021.

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Why Emefiele’s interest rate policy is ‘great’

Meristem Securities has asserted that interest rates will remain low until, at least, the end of H1 2021.

This statement was made at the recently held webinar on Global Economy and Outlook, which the company themed: Bracing for a Different Future.

Although the company acknowledged that there is mounting pressure for upward movement in yields from several stakeholders, it appears the company concurs nothing concrete is in sight.

This line of reasoning seems to have influenced their decision to advise investors to move away from Treasury instruments.

What they are saying

Meristem advises that:

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  • “Buy and hold strategy investors seeking to generate above average returns should move away from risk free Treasury instruments and focus on investment grade commercial papers and bonds which satisfy investment objectives.”
  • “Active traders with higher risk appetite are advised to focus on high-yield short duration instruments, which would be re-invested into a higher yield environment should rate reversals occur.”

The advice regarding shunning Treasury instruments appears to be in order, considering that treasury bill rate has been declining, with the latest figure — November 2020 — 0.03% as per the CBN monthly interest rate data.

Further checks from the Debt Management Office website, indicates that the latest figures for Eurobonds and Diaspora bond fall short of the fixed yield at issue for all the different categories of bonds in issue.

What you should know

Latest figures from the CBN’s monthly interest rate indicate that:

  • Treasury bill rate has been on a steady decline for six months, down to 0.03% since the last rise (2.47%) in May 2020.
  • Fixed deposit rates (one, three, six and twelve months) have also been declining – the latest figures for these indicate that in November 2020, one-month deposit rate was 1.92%, 2.9% for three months, 2.84% for six months, and 4.89% for 12 months.
  • Compared with the corresponding period in 2019, the figures indicate that these rates fell by 75%, 66%, 71% and 49% respectively.

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