MTN Nigeria may be just one profitable quarter away from reversing two years of retained losses triggered by the naira devaluation and FX volatility.
Based on its H1 2025 results, the telecoms giant posted a pre-tax profit of N622.24 billion and a net profit of N367.44 billion, significantly narrowing its accumulated retained losses from N607.47 billion in December 2024 to N192.89 billion by June 2025.
If MTN sustains its current run rate averaging about N183.72 billion in quarterly profit after tax it is reasonable to expect that the remaining N192.89 billion in retained losses could be fully wiped out by Q3 2025.
This would also push shareholders’ equity, currently negative at -N42.45 billion, back into positive territory for the first time since 2022.
What is driving the turnaround?
- At the heart of MTN’s turnaround is a data boom. MTN’s data business has become its growth engine. In H1 2025 alone, data revenue soared 69% year-on-year to N1.228 trillion.
If this trajectory holds, MTN revenue could reach N4 trillion by year-end. Already at N2.37 trillion in H1 2025, with over 50% coming from data, and the segment where ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) still has room to grow, the projection looks increasingly plausible.
- Last year’s N925 billion net forex loss nearly wiped MTN out. But the tide has turned. The company posted a net FX gain of N295 million in Q2 2025, cutting total H1 net forex losses to just N5.23 billion down from N887.68 billion in the same period last year.
If current FX trends hold—thanks to a more stable naira and fewer shocks in the I&E window—total forex-related losses could stay better this year.
- MTN has also gotten leaner. It’s gone back to the basics—renegotiating tower leases, slashing infrastructure costs, and applying tighter cost controls.
All of this is beginning to be reflected in MTN’s profit line.
- Net profit margin jumped to 36.3% in Q2 and averaged 29.9% in H1 2025. If this trend holds and MTN hits H2 revenue of about N1.5 trillion, it could end the year with a fresh N400–N450 billion in net profit.
However, MTN’s turnaround is still work in progress. The equity position is still underwater. Retained losses haven’t disappeared.
But the engine is humming again. The company has stabilized the bleeding, reignited its core revenue base, and is building momentum.
If MTN’s management stays the course and the macroeconomic environment remains stable, 2025 could mark the turning point not just a year of survival, but the start of a climb back to profitability and shareholder value.
The company’s own outlook highlights that optimism.
“As we progress into the second half of 2025, we are constructive on our growth outlook and the opportunities within our evolving operating environment.
“We anticipate sustained momentum in service revenue, supported by sustained usage and user base growth as we drive new propositions and focus on market expansion initiatives.
“Our commercial strategy remains focused on driving deeper engagement, enhancing customer experience and expanding access across key market segments.”
The storm may not be completely over, but the skies are clearing and MTN appears to be charting a path back toward strength.
