Sometimes, all it takes is a good call.
But when you get several right in a row, you’re not guessing — you’re reading about the market.
Back in April, May, and June, we dropped high-conviction calls on names we believed were due for a breakout: FirstHoldco, Custodian, Nestlé, Beta Glass, Fidelity, MTN, and yes, even Tesla.
Fast forward to July, and every single one of those picks is in the green — massively.
From FirstHoldco’s 43% rally to Custodian doubling and Tesla rebounding over 50%, it’s been a season of vindication.
Each call was grounded in deep fundamentals, sharp timing, and reading the “power plays” like a hedge fund on adrenaline.
Let’s run through the scorecard.
FirstHoldco
When we called FirstHoldco a buy on April 23 at N23.75, we projected a minimum 35% upside.
As of July 18, the stock closed at N33.95 — a 43% gain in under three months. A validation of our call.
Back then, the sentiment around FirstHoldco was mixed. But we pointed out what others were missing: deep undervaluation, an ongoing boardroom shake-up, recapitalization momentum, and the rising influence of Femi Otedola. All the right ingredients for a re-rating.
Then came the big moment.
On July 16, over 10.4 billion shares exchanged hands in an off-market transaction valued at a staggering N323.4 billion, executed at N31 per share. The deal sparked fresh speculation around ownership changes and raised expectations of a bigger strategic reset, especially in the post-Otudeko era.
The market clearly believes there’s more to come — and so do we.
The fundamentals were never the issue. With N663 billion in profits, the real story was conviction—betting on a re-rating driven by power plays and smart capital moves.
Nestlé Nigeria Plc
On June 3, 2025, we projected Nestlé could hit N3,000. At the time, it was trading at N1,500. Today, it’s at N1,800 — up 20% since our call, 106% YtD, and 24% in July alone.
With 40% upside left to our target, the N3,000 call is still in play. Q1 EPS came in at N38, reversing a loss of -N204 in 2024.
If sustained, full-year EPS could hit N152.28, implying a forward P/E of 19.7x — much more reasonable than the current trailing P/E of 175x.
Custodian Investment Plc: Still undervalued after a 74% rally
On June 13, 2025, Nairametrics tagged Custodian as the classic “buy low, ride the upside” play when it traded at just N24.90.
One month later, it has rewarded early believers with a 20% gain and 74% year-to-date. Despite the rally, key metrics like sub–5 P/E and P/S under 1 suggest the stock may still be undervalued, with room to push toward N35–N40 if earnings hold steady.
Tesla: That $300 signal paid off
Back on June 6, 2025, we flagged Tesla under $300 as our buy zone. The stock had dipped amid political drama and investor jitters, but the long-term thesis stayed intact.
Fast-forward to today, Tesla closed at $329.65 — that’s a 10% gain in just over a month for anyone who took the dip.
Fidelity Bank
Back on May 22, 2025, we flagged Fidelity Bank as one to watch when it traded at N17.35, just as news of the N14 billion Supreme Court judgment broke.
Fast forward to now, the stock closed at N20.85 on Friday, delivering a 20% gain in just under two months.
The payout — about 15% of Q1 2025 pre-tax profit — spooked investors. The stock dipped as low as N19, but the recovery has been steady.
The numbers are still solid. From N17.35 to N20.85, it is already paid off, and there may still be some upside left.
Beta Glass is up 108% since we recommended it on Nairametrics
Back in February, we called it Beta Glass, trading at around N86, and in our stock recommendation article, we told you it was a buy.
Fast forward to May 8, 2025, the stock had rallied to N160.65, at which point we doubled down and said it still had room to run. Well, today, July 18, it closed at N333.95.
Beta Glass is up 108% since our May 8 call at N160.65, now trading at N333.95. That’s over 100% gain in just 10 weeks, and 415% YtD.
We said it was undervalued, and it delivered. Back then, it traded at a P/E below 5. Now it’s rerated to 9.03.
Despite the rally, we think it hasn’t outrun its fundamentals. Earnings are solid, and investor interest is growing. There may still be upside, though maybe not at the same pace.
If you bought it when we did, you’re smiling now.
MTN Nigeria hits N400 — up 60% since our April call
On April 30, we called MTN Nigeria a tactical buy at N250, targeting N300 on earnings recovery and FX stabilization. Fast forward to today — the stock closed at N400, a 60% gain in just over 2 months, doubling our initial upside estimate.
Back then, many were still wary — no dividends, post-loss hangover, looming capital raise. But we focused on profit momentum, price hikes, and operational restructuring, and it paid off.
The re-rating has come faster than expected. If you followed the call, you’re sitting on one of the best short-term large-cap trades this year.
Lafarge: From N79 to N114 up 44% in under 3 months
On April 25, we said Lafarge was “pouring concrete profits” and called it a buy below N90, with a N120 year-end target. Well, it just hit N114 as of July 18, delivering a 44% gain in less than three months.
The bullish thesis was simple: surging profits, clean balance sheet, and a bold N4 interim dividend. Investors caught on — and the re-rating followed.
We’re now within striking distance of our full-year target, with five months to go.
Wow! Great calls.
Job well done, missed them though.
Hopefully I can get in on one of your future calls. Kudos.
Lovely analysis and great one at that
Thanks very much sir and continue your good work.