Custodian Investment Plc has delivered a standout performance in the first half of 2024, surpassing its pre-tax profit forecast by a significant margin.
With this backdrop, the key question remains: Is now the right time to buy, hold, or sell Custodian Investment’s stock, given its strong first-half performance and second-half targets?
Beating Forecasts and Setting the Pace
Nairametrics had earlier reported that Custodian would beat its Q2 forecast, given the company’s overachievement in Q1 2024.
For the first half of 2024, Custodian Investment forecasted a pre-tax profit of N12.105 billion but delivered N25.745 billion, representing 112% of its forecast and a 294% year-on-year growth.
This strong performance was driven by strong investment results, which rose by 84% YoY to N33.491 billion. Custodian Investment’s core insurance business also contributed significantly, generating N60.964 billion in insurance service revenue, representing over 90% of the total revenue recorded for the full year of 2023.
However, insurance service expenses remain a challenge, consuming N59.872 billion of that revenue, resulting in an expense-to-income ratio of 0.98.
While this marks an improvement over the first half of 2023, when the ratio stood at 1.11, it highlights the company’s ongoing battle with rising costs
Targets for second half of 2024
With the first half exceeding expectations, Custodian has set target for the second half of 2024, aiming for a pre-tax profit of N36 billion.
One key factor that could support the Custodian’s continued outperformance is the current high-interest rate environment, which has already been pivotal in boosting its investment income.
In the first half of 2024, interest income from investments measured at amortized cost of N13.07 billion, constituted the highest portion of its total interest income.
This surge in investment returns, driven by elevated rates, contributed to Custodian’s overall 84% YoY growth in investment results. If interest rates remain elevated, the company’s investment portfolio is likely to continue benefiting, further strengthening its ability to hit its aggressive second-half targets.
Dividend Performance and Valuation
Adding to the appeal for investors, Custodian Investment has demonstrated commitment to rewarding its shareholders.
The company raised its total dividend by 23% in 2023, increasing the payout from 65 kobo per share in 2022 to 80 kobo per share in 2023.
Following its impressive first half performance, Custodian Investment declared an interim dividend of 15 kobo. Given its ambitious full-year forecast, there is a strong possibility that the company will exceed its final 2023 dividend of 65 kobo.
The stock offers a trailing twelve-month dividend yield of 7.11%, one of the highest in the Conglomerate/Diversified sector, boosting total returns to 52%, the second-best in the sector. This makes Custodian an attractive option for income-seeking investors, especially when combined with its strong stock performance.
This potential for an increased payout could further enhance total returns, investor confidence and attract interest in the stock.
From a valuation perspective, Custodian Investment’s stock appears undervalued relative to the industry. The stock is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 2.10x, lower than the industry average of 4.67x.
Its price-to-sales ratio of 0.69x and price-to-book ratio of 0.85x are also below the industry averages of 0.87x and 0.94x, respectively. This suggests the stock is trading at a discount, providing a potential opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on Custodian’s growth story.
The stock has gained 44% year-to-date, closing at N13 per share as of September 23, 2024.
NGX Broker Ratings Mixed
According to the NGX Compendium of Broker’s Stock Recommendations for the week of September 24-27, 2024, there are differing opinions on Custodian Investment Plc.
Bancorp Securities has placed a “Hold” rating on the stock, suggesting it is reasonably valued and a stable investment, while Meristem has issued a “Sell” rating, reflecting concerns about potential downside risks.
These varied ratings highlight balanced sentiment, with the company’s strong earnings growth weighed against its rising expenses.
Custodian Investment Plc’s first half of 2024 has been an undeniable success, exceeding expectations and positioning the company for further growth. However, rising costs, along with divergent views from brokerage firms, suggest that investors should carefully weigh their own risk tolerance.
Whether to buy, hold, or sell hinges on an investor’s risk tolerance and outlook for the second half of the year.
