Research Analysis
Full text of FG’s letter of intent to request for IMF loan
Appendix I. Letter of Intent
April 21, 2020
Ms. Kristalina Georgieva
Managing Director
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Washington, D.C. 20431
Dear Ms. Georgieva,
1. The global humanitarian and economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is having a severe impact on Nigeria. In addition to the high human toll from daily increases in COVID-19 cases, the economic cost is high. Containment policies to limit the propagation of the outbreak—including to restrict movement and encourage social distance—and a sharp fall in oil prices is causing a dramatic fall in economic activity. Our preliminary assessment suggests a contraction in real GDP of 3.4 per cent this year, a 6.5 percentage points drop relative to our previous estimate. Given the uncertainty as to the depth and duration of this crisis, this estimate comes with downside risks.
2. Our external position has already come under strong pressure. The current account deficit is projected to be about 3.3 per cent of GDP, despite some import compression, as oil exports drop. At the same time, remittances and capital inflows are expected to weaken substantially, leading to pressure on our international reserves, which have already declined. To mitigate the balance-of-payment pressures, we adjusted the official exchange rate from N305/$ to N360/$ and recently converged the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s various foreign exchange (FX) windows to the Investors and Exporters (I&E) windows rate, which will be allowed to move with market forces, as observed with the recent depreciation in response to capital outflows. This step also allowed us to close the gap between the CBN’s minimum and maximum exchange rates from 20 to 5 per cent—a major step toward exchange rate unification. We are committed to maintaining this more unified and flexible exchange rate regime, which will operate in a market-determined manner and be allowed to respond to shocks, with the CBN only intervening to smooth large FX fluctuations. While greater FX flexibility will help mitigate balance-of-payment pressures, an external financing gap of US$14 billion will remain.
READ ALSO: Nigeria needs $100 billion annually to fix infrastructural deficit – Finance Minister
3. Unsurprisingly, the COVID-19 crisis will also severely impact the budget. Lower growth and the sharp decline in oil prices are affecting tax revenues, which are projected to fall short of our target by about 3 per cent of GDP. The estimated cost of our pandemic emergency response plan, including additional health and social spending and fiscal stimulus targeted at the most affected sectors, is at least US$1.4 billion (0.3 per cent of GDP) in 2020. Together, these two factors will increase the overall deficit by about 2 per cent of GDP in 2020, despite expenditure reprioritization efforts. We estimate that the Government of Nigeria will require an additional US$11 billion (3 per cent of GDP) in 2020 to close the fiscal financing gap resulting from the shock.
4. To address the immediate external financing needs, the Government of Nigeria requests the maximum amount of IMF emergency financing available to Nigeria under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI), or SDR 2,454.5 million (about US$3,398 million), corresponding to 100 per cent of our quota. This loan will help remedy the immediate liquidity needs arising from the twin shocks facing us. We are confident that IMF involvement in the international effort to assist Nigeria in dealing with the global pandemic will play a catalytic role in securing additional budget support from our development partners. We are actively seeking this additional support, beyond the US$3.6 billion already committed this year by the World Bank, AfDB, IsDB, and Afreximbank.
5. The RFI purchases will be instrumental to help fill the projected fiscal financing and balance-of-payments gap in 2020. The RFI purchases will be on-lent by the central bank to the Treasury. To this end, we will sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the central bank and the government, to specify the conditions of this operation, following the IMF’s policy and guidance.
READ MORE: IMF pressures Nigeria to fast track exchange rate unification
6. In line with fiscal responses underway globally, we plan to partially accommodate the fiscal impact of the COVID-19 crisis in 2020. In lockstep, we will also grant banks the leeway to restructure loans for the most-affected but fundamentally sound borrowers in order to accommodate the cash squeeze facing the private sector. However, we will ensure that such actions are done in a timebound and transparent fashion and without compromising regulatory or accounting standards.
7. The government set up an Economic Sustainability Committee chaired by Vice President Professor Yemi Osinbajo to devise strategies to keep the economy working and ensure jobs are not only retained but that more are generated. The Presidential Economic Advisory Council (PEAC) is also working on policies to ensure macroeconomic stability and poverty reduction. Going beyond this year, the government of Nigeria is fully committed to pursuing policies consistent with macroeconomic stability and good governance:
• Fiscal policy: First and foremost, we will revert to our government’s planned medium-term fiscal consolidation path—which includes increasing revenue to 15 per cent of GDP through further VAT reforms, rise in excises, and removal of tax exemptions— once the crisis passes. The recent introduction and implementation of an automatic fuel price formula will ensure fuel subsidies, which we have eliminated, do not reemerge. In line with the Fiscal Responsibility Act, this will allow us to reduce the Federal Government deficit to under 3 per cent of GDP and eliminate recourse to central bank financing by 2025.
READ ALSO: FG, States, LGs allocation to drop by N2.01 trillion in 2020
• Financing of the deficit: In addition to the external borrowing sought, we are also increasing our domestic borrowing limits in the supplementary budget so that we can make use of our favourable low domestic yields, particularly since the results of the last domestic bond auction show strong demand. The existing stock of overdrafts held at the CBN will also be securitized.
• Monetary and exchange rate Policy. As outlined in our home-grown Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, we are also strengthening monetary and exchange rate policies with a view to moving towards full exchange rate unification and greater exchange rate flexibility, which would help preserve foreign exchange reserves and avoid economic dislocation.
• Power sector reforms. We are also advancing in our power sector reforms—with technical assistance and financial support from the World Bank—including through capping electricity tariff shortfalls this year to N380 billion and moving to full cost-reflective tariffs in 2021.
8. Our anti-corruption efforts will continue unabated. We will strengthen the role of the Federal Audit Board in combating corruption and are committed to strengthening the asset declaration framework and fully implementing the risk-based approach to AML/CFT supervision while ensuring the transparency of beneficial ownership of legal persons. We fully recognize the importance of ensuring that financial assistance received is used for intended purposes. To that end, we will (i) create specific budget lines to facilitate the tracking and reporting of emergency response expenditures and report funds released and expenditures incurred monthly on the transparency portal (http://opentreasury.gov.ng/); (ii) publish procurement plans, procurement notices for all the emergency response activities—including the name of awarded companies and of beneficial owners—on the Bureau of Public procurement website; and (iii) publish no later than three to six months after the end of the fiscal year the report of an independent audit into the emergency response expenditures and related procurement process, which will be conducted by the Auditor General of the Federation—who will be provided with the resources necessary and will consult with external/third party auditors.
READ MORE: Trade: CBN reviews exchange rate for cargo imports
9. In line with IMF safeguards policy, we commit to undergoing a new safeguards assessment conducted by the Fund. To this end, we have authorized IMF staff to hold discussions with external auditors and provide IMF staff access to the CBN’s most recently completed external audit reports. We do not intend to introduce measures or policies that would exacerbate the current balance-of-payments difficulties. We do not intend to impose new or intensify existing restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions, trade restrictions for balance-of-payments purposes, or multiple currency practices, or to enter into bilateral payments agreements which are inconsistent with Article VIII of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement.
10. We are determined to meet the immense challenge the Covid-19 pandemic is facing us with. Support from the international community will be critical, and we look forward to early approval of financial assistance by the IMF—which will help our effort to keep the Nigerian economy on a strong path and sustain our fight against poverty. Beyond this much needed immediate financial assistance, we reaffirm our willingness to remain engaged with the IMF, to benefit from its policy advice and its technical assistance. We authorize the IMF to publish this letter and the staff report for the request for purchases under the RFI.
Sincerely yours,
/s/ Zainab Shamsuna Ahmed
Minister of Finance, Budget, and National Planning
Exclusives
Lafarge, Nigerian Breweries, Stanbic IBTC, others top best performing stocks in Q3 2020
Nairametrics reviews the best stocks in Q3 2020, judging by their performance.
Lafarge Africa, Nigerian Breweries, Stanbic IBTC, United Capital, and FTN Cocoa made the list of best-performing stocks in the third quarter of 2020 (July – Sept’20).
The third quarter of the year was a recovery period for the Exchange, as the All Share Index grew by 9.61% to close the gap caused by the negative performance it endured in the first quarter of the year – during the heat of the COVID-19 pandemic. It also recorded a 14.92% positive growth in the second quarter.
READ: Mixed fortunes for Nigerian Breweries Plc as the Brewery sector moribunds
READ: UPDATED: Nigeria received $1.29 billion capital inflows in Q2 2020, down by 78.6%
As Company stocks is one of the popular means of short-term investments in Nigeria and a look at persistent inflationary pressures; it is imperative to assess the performances of the stocks listed on the exchange during the covid era, to ascertain the profitability of investors in this period.
To determine the best-performing stocks, we looked at the stock prices as of the last trading day in June 2020 and compared to their prices as of the last trading day of September 2020. Here are the top 5:
READ: MTN shareholders have made approximately N1 trillion since April 2020
Lafarge Africa Plc
The Cement manufacturing company grew its stock value by as much as 50% between July and September 2020. As at 30th June 2020, the stock of Lafarge was worth N10 per unit of share but grew to N15 as at the last trading day of September – with a market capitalization of N241.6 billion.
A cursory look at the Q2 2020 financial performance, shows a 5% year-on-year decrease in revenue generated. However, a reduced cost of sales helped improved the company’s gross profit by 10% and a subsequent 78% increase in profit before tax at N19.38 billion.
READ: PMI: Nigeria’s manufacturing sector gains momentum in November
READ: These industries drove business activities in September
June 30th – N10
September 30th – N15
Return – 50%
Ranking – First
Nigerian Breweries Plc
The second on the list is the brewery giant, Nigerian Breweries – the makers of Star Lager, Fayrouz, Goldberg, and many other consumables. It grew its stocks by 35.73% from N36.1 as of 30th of June to N49 per share at the end of Q3 2020. The market capitalization also closed at N391.8 billion as at the review period, being the second most capitalized consumer goods firm – only behind Nestle Nigeria.
A look at the Q2 2020 financials, shows that the company endured a downturn, mostly affected by the COVID-induced lockdown, which halted all social gatherings, as it posted a profit before tax of N69.8 million – 99% decline compared to N7.95 billion recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019.
However, with the lifting of lockdown nationwide, the outlook for the Q3 and Q4 2020 appears to be positive, as investors have shown confidence in the brand, which has translated into a positive stock performance in the quarter.
READ: GDP: Nigeria’s manufacturing sector on tight ropes
June 30th – N36.1
September 30th – N49
Return – 35.73%
Ranking – Second
Stanbic IBTC Plc
The third most capitalized bank on the stock exchange is also the third on the list of best performing stocks in Q3 2020, growing its stock by 33.88% from N30.25 per unit of share recorded as of June 30th to N40.5 at the end of trading in September – with a total market capitalization of N449.8 billion.
In the same vein, the Q2 performance of Stanbic IBTC indicates an 11% increase in gross earnings, which permeates into 32.2% increase in profit before tax – from N21.1 billion recorded in Q2 2019, as against N27.9 billion in the review period.
READ: Heineken scoops more Nigerian Breweries shares in insider disclosure
June 30th – N30.25
September 30th – N40.5
Return – 33.88%
Ranking – Third
United Capital Plc
The financial and investment service firm recorded a 30.59% increase in its stock value, as it moved from N2.55 per unit of share as at June 30th to N3.33 as at the end of September. This growth places United Capital in fourth position, as one the best performing stocks between July and September 2020.
The investment firm displayed firm resolve against the effects of COVID-19 in the second quarter of the year – as it posted a profit before tax of N1.5 billion, as against N1.2 billion reported in the corresponding quarter of 2019. This indicates a 22.9% increase in profit.
READ: Custodian Investment Plc posts Profit After Tax of N1.5 billion in Q3 2020
READ: NFF receives $1 million from FIFA as COVID-19 palliative
June 30th – N2.55
September 30th – N3.33
Return – 30.59%
Ranking – Fourth
FTN Cocoa Processors Plc
A unit of FTN Cocoa shares was valued at 20 kobo as at June 30th. However, it grew by 30% to N26 kobo as at the end of trading on 30th September 2020, leaving its total market capitalization at N572 million.
Data obtained from Nairalytics – the research arm of Nairametrics, showed that FTN Cocoa has not released its financials since Q1 2019. However, the cocoa processing company was able to post a positive stock performance in the third quarter of the year to sit fifth on the list.
READ: Nigeria’s manufacturing sector contracts for 5th consecutive month – CBN
The company was formerly registered as Fantastic Traders Nigeria Limited, a Limited Liability Company, which was incorporated in 1991. It commenced cocoa processing business in a third-party arrangement (Toll Processing) with Stanmark cocoa processing company limited in 1995. They converted cocoa beans into cocoa butter and cocoa cake/powder, and later extended their activities to Ile-oluji, Cocoa Cooperative etc.
READ: Togo, Niger, Benin remit N2.04 billion to Nigeria for power supply
June 30th – N0.20k
September 30th – N0.26k
Return – 30%
Ranking – Fifth
Bubbling Under
The following stocks make up the rest of the top 10 in descending order:
6. Guaranty Trust Bank Plc
7. University Press Plc
8. Eterna Plc
9. Unity Bank Plc
10. Fidson Healthcare Plc
Explore some Advanced Financial Calculators on Nairametrics
Bottom line: With a double-digit growth in the following stocks, Investors who bought these stocks would be delighted to see their investments appreciate during this period and will look forward to gaining more in the subsequent periods.
Research Analysis
Market Survey: Price of tomatoes, maize, and melon spikes, as scarcity hits Lagos markets
The report contains information on items that witnessed price increase, price decrease, as well as insights.
Prices of major household food items have increased significantly across major markets in Lagos State, as a result of low harvest and scarcity. This is according to the latest Household Market Survey conducted by Nairalytics – the research arm of Nairametrics.
The persistent rise in the price of food items has been enabled by dwindling harvest, which has caused scarcity of commodities across major markets in Lagos State. Some of the items that surged as a result of the scarcity include tomatoes, melon and maize.
READ: Prices of frozen Fish, Yam, Pepper, others jump as traders lament low sales in major markets
The report shows that a big basket of Oval-shaped tomatoes now sells for an average of N17,000, indicating a 6.3% increase in price when compared to N16,000 recorded in September. A big bag of Melon increased by 22.4%, to sell for an average of N46,500.
The report contains information on items that witnessed price increase, price decrease, as well as information on special markets, and insights.
READ: Alert: Tomato prices are up by over 80% in these Lagos markets
Items that witnessed price increase
- A carton of Turkey increased by 5.8% to sell for an average of N18,333, compared to an initial average of N17,333 recorded in September 2020.
- A carton of full Chicken that was sold for an average of N14,000 two weeks ago, now sells for an average of N14,500. This represents 3.6% increase in price.
- A carton of Chicken laps increased by 2.4% to sell for an average of N14,333, compared to N14,000 recorded in September.
- A big bag of Bush mango seed, popularly known as “Ogbono” now sells for N100,000 at Mile-12 market. A 5.3% increase compared to N95,000 reported earlier.
- A big bag of dry Onions increased by 48% to sell for an average of N55,500, compared to an initial average of N37,500.
- A big bag of new Onions spiked by 60.8% to sell for an average of N41,000. It was initially sold for an average of N25,500.
- A big bag of Yellow Maize that was initially sold for an average of N17,667 now sells for an average of N20,167 – a 14.2% increase in two weeks.
- A big bag of White Maize also increased by 17.7% to sell for an average of N20,000, compared to an initial average of N17,000.
- A big bag of Pepper increased by 9.7% to sell for an average of N17,000, while a medium-sized bag sells for an average of N9,000 – a 38.5% increase in price.
- A Mackerel fish, popularly known as “Kote” sells for an average of N663. An increase of 3.9% from an initial average of N638.
- A big basket of Oval-shaped Tomatoes now sells for N17,000 at Mile-12 market, compared to N16,000 recorded in the later part of last month. A small basket increased by 5.6% to sell for N9,500.
- A pack of 500g Dangote Pasta increased marginally by 1.21% to sell for an average of N4,175, compared to an initial average of N4,125.
- A big bag of Melon increased by 22.4% to sell for an average of N46,500, compared to an initial N38,000 recorded in September.
READ: Food items’ stock pile-up across major markets, as prices continue to drop
Items that witnessed price decrease
- A big basket of Sweet Potato now sells for an average of N13,500, from an initial average of N14,000 – a 3.6% reduction in price.
- The price of a big basket of Irish Potatoes reduced by 29.5% to sell for an average of N21,500, compared to N30,500 recorded in September.
- A 50kg bag of White Beans sells for an average of N25,025. It reduced by 15.9% from an initial average of N29,750.
- 5 litres gallon of Palm Oil currently sells for an average of N2,375 from an initial average of N2,425. 25 litres gallon sells for an average of N12,125.
- A big bag (nylon) of Crayfish currently sells for an average of N12,500, compared to an initial average of N13,000.
- A big Horse Mackerel fish popularly known as “Kote” sells for an average of N625. It was initially sold for an average of N663.
READ: Prices of food items jump across Lagos markets, as traders lament transport fare hike
Items that maintained initial prices
- A 50kg bag of Royal Stallion Rice still sells for an average of N30,333, Mama Gold (N29,750), Caprice (N29,667), and Mama’s Pride (N25,500).
- A big sized bag of Brown Beans still sells for an average of N33,000.
- The various brands of noodles maintained their initial prices. 305g carton of Indomie still sells for an average of N3,150, 210g of Indomie (N3,200), and 100g of Chikki (N2,200).
- The price of a 50kg bag of Yellow Garri remains unchanged at an average of N13,000.
- The price of a 50kg bag of Flour remains on the high, as Dangote sells for an average of N14,333, Honey well (N14,375), and Mama Gold (N14,125).
- A big basket of Round-shaped Tomatoes still sells for an average of N14,000, while a medium-sized basket sells for an average of N8,500.
READ: Prices of beans, potatoes, palm oil, others jump as traders lament hike, seasonal scarcity
Special markets/items
Nairametrics research found that there are two varieties of pepper at Mile-12 market, a small and a big one. A big bag of the big Pepper sells for an average of N17,000 while that of the small Pepper sells for an average of N10,000. Interestingly, a medium-sized bag of the small pepper sells for an average of N9,000.
Mr. Musa, a Pepper seller at the market, explained that the reason for the difference in price between the two varieties is that the small pepper is more peppery, when compared to the bigger one. He added that most people from the Western part of the country prefer to buy the small ones, as they like to prepare spicy meals.
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Our agent at Daleko market, told Nairametrics Research that one of the major types of brown beans (Niger beans) is now scarce in the market, same goes for Maiduguri beans. However, she stated that “Oloyin Pelebe” is currently sold for an average of N22,000, Gombe beans (big bag) for an average of N33,000, and the small bag sells for an average of N27,000.
READ: Prices of tomatoes, frozen foods, onions, others jump, as low demand hits imported rice
Market insights
Scarcity of major food items across Lagos markets has caused a significant hike in the price of commodities, as traders highlighted the reasons for the persistent increase.
Mr. KC from Mile-12 market said it is a surprise to traders that Melon is now sold for N48,000 in the market, since it is always cheap at this time of the year. However, he attributed the price increase to scarcity of the commodity. According to him, farmers did not cultivate significant quantity of melon because of the incessant rain in recent times.
“Melon requires sun to dry; however, the northern part of the country witnessed lots of rainfall this year, which really affected the cultivation of the commodity during this period,” he added.
Nairametrics Research met a scanty Onion section of Mile 12 market during visitation this week. In a discussion with one of the sellers named Ismail, he said that the prices of onions have spiked significantly because of its scarcity.
According to Ismail, there has been limited influx of new onions into the market, while dry onions is even more limited. He said the price is also expensive in the north.
Explore Data on the Nairametrics Research Website
| Items | Brand | Unit | MUSHIN (08/10/2020) | DALEKO (08/10/2020) | OYINGBO (08/10/2020) | MILE 12 (08/10/2020) | Average | MUSHIN (24/09/2020) | DALEKO (24/09/2020) | OYINGBO (24/09/2020) | MILE 12 (24/09/2020) | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bag of Rice | Mama Gold | 10kg | NA | 4500 | 4500 | 5000 | 4666.6666666667 | NA | 4500 | 4500 | 5000 | 4666.6666666667 | |
| Bag of Rice | Royal Stallion | 50Kg | 30000 | NA | 30000 | 31000 | 30333.333333333 | 30000 | NA | 30000 | 31000 | 30333.333333333 | |
| Bag of Rice | Rice Master | 10kg | 5000 | NA | 4500 | 4750 | 5000 | NA | 4500 | 4750 | |||
| Bag of Rice | Mama Gold | 50kg | 29500 | 29500 | 30000 | 30000 | 29750 | 29500 | 29500 | 30000 | 30000 | 29750 | |
| Bag of Rice | Caprice | 50kg | 30000 | NA | 29000 | 30000 | 29666.666666667 | 30000 | NA | 29000 | 30000 | 29666.666666667 | |
| Bag of Rice | Mama's Pride | 50kg | 25500 | 25500 | 25000 | 26000 | 25500 | 25500 | 25500 | 25000 | 26000 | 25500 | |
| Bag of Beans | Oloyin | 50kg | 20000 | 21000 | 20000 | 20333.333333333 | 20000 | 19500 | 20000 | 22000 | 20375 | ||
| Bag of Beans | White | 50kg | 3100 | 32000 | 33000 | 32000 | 25025 | 30000 | 30000 | 30000 | 29000 | 29750 | |
| Bag of Beans | Brown | >50kg | 32000 | 34000 | 35000 | 31000 | 33000 | 32000 | 34000 | 35000 | 31000 | 33000 | |
| Tuber of Yam | Abuja | 1 Big Size Tuber | 1000 | 900 | 850 | 1000 | 937.5 | 1000 | 900 | 850 | 1000 | 937.5 | |
| Tuber of Yam | Abuja | 1 Medium Size Tuber | 600 | 600 | 650 | 700 | 637.5 | 600 | 600 | 650 | 700 | 637.5 | |
| Carton of Noodles | Indomie | 305g (Belle full) | 3200 | 3100 | 3200 | 3100 | 3150 | 3200 | 3100 | 3200 | 3100 | 3150 | |
| Carton of Noodles | Indomie | 210g (Hungry man) | 3200 | 3200 | 3200 | 3200 | 3200 | 3200 | 3200 | 3200 | 3200 | 3200 | |
| Carton of Noodles | Chikki | 100g | 2200 | 2200 | 2100 | 2300 | 2200 | 2200 | 2200 | 2100 | 2300 | 2200 | |
| Carton of Noodles | Minimie | 70g | 1900 | 1750 | 1700 | 1800 | 1787.5 | 1900 | 1750 | 1700 | 1800 | 1787.5 | |
| Carton of Noodles | Golden Penny | 70g | 1700 | 1500 | 1600 | 1600 | 1600 | 1700 | 1500 | 1600 | 1600 | 1600 | |
| Bag of Garri | Ijebu | 50kg | 14000 | 13500 | 14000 | 13500 | 13750 | 14000 | 13500 | 13500 | 13500 | 13625 | |
| Bag of Garri | White | 50kg | 13000 | 12500 | 12500 | 13000 | 12750 | 13000 | 13000 | 12500 | 13000 | 12875 | |
| Bag of Garri | Yellow | 50kg | 12500 | 13000 | 13000 | 13500 | 13000 | 12500 | 13000 | 13000 | 13500 | 13000 | |
| Basket of Potato | Sweet | Big Basket | 13500 | 13500 | 14000 | 14000 | |||||||
| Basket of Potato | Sweet | Small Basket | 700 | 700 | 700 | 700 | 700 | 700 | |||||
| Basket of Potato | sweet | Smallest Basket | 400 | 250 | 325 | 400 | 250 | 325 | |||||
| Basket of Potato | Irish | Biggest Basket | 20000 | 23000 | 21500 | 33000 | 28000 | 30500 | |||||
| Basket of Potato | Irish | Small Basket | 2500 | 2500 | 2500 | 2500 | |||||||
| Basket of Potato | Irish | Smallest Basket | 1700 | 1500 | 1600 | 1700 | 1500 | 1600 | |||||
| Packet of Pasta | Golden Penny | 500g | 4400 | 4400 | 4300 | 4200 | 4325 | 4400 | 4400 | 4300 | 4200 | 4325 | |
| Packet of Pasta | Dangote | 500g | 4200 | 4150 | 4200 | 4150 | 4175 | 4100 | 4100 | 4200 | 4100 | 4125 | |
| Packet of Pasta | Power (1 pc) | 500g | 250 | 220 | 250 | 220 | 235 | 220 | 220 | 220 | 220 | 220 | |
| Packet of Pasta | Bonita (1 pc) | 500g | 200 | 220 | 230 | 220 | 217.5 | 200 | 200 | 230 | 220 | 212.5 | |
| Gallon of Palm Oil | Local | 5 Litres | 2700 | 2300 | 2300 | 2200 | 2375 | 2700 | 2300 | 2300 | 2400 | 2425 | |
| Gallon of Palm Oil | Local | 25 Litres | 12000 | 11500 | 12500 | 12500 | 12125 | 12000 | 11500 | 12500 | 13000 | 12250 | |
| Gallon of Vegetable Oil | Local | 5 Litres | 2900 | 3000 | 3000 | 3500 | 3100 | 2900 | 3000 | 3000 | 3500 | 3100 | |
| Gallon of Vegetable Oil | Local | 25 Litres | 14000 | 15000 | 14500 | 15000 | 14625 | 14000 | 15000 | 14500 | 15000 | 14625 | |
| Gallon of Vegetable Oil | Kings | 5 Litres | 3200 | 3000 | 3000 | 2800 | 3000 | 3200 | 3000 | 3000 | 2800 | 3000 | |
| Gallon of Vegetable Oil | Wesson | 5 Litres | 4500 | 3900 | 3900 | 4300 | 4150 | 4500 | 3900 | 3900 | 4300 | 4150 | |
| Gallon of Vegetable Oil | Mamador | 3.8 Litres | 2500 | 2450 | 2500 | 2800 | 2562.5 | 2500 | 2450 | 2500 | 2800 | 2562.5 | |
| Gallon of Vegetable Oil | Power | 3 Litres | 1900 | 1800 | 1800 | 2200 | 1925 | 1900 | 1800 | 1800 | 2200 | 1925 | |
| Bunch of Plantain | Plantain | 1 Bunch | 500 | 500 | 500 | 600 | 525 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 600 | 525 | |
| Bag of Flour | Dangote | 50kg | NA | 13500 | 15000 | 14500 | 14333.333333333 | NA | 13500 | 15000 | 14500 | 14333.333333333 | |
| Bag of Flour | Honey well | 50Kg | 14500 | 13500 | 14500 | 15000 | 14375 | 14500 | 13500 | 14500 | 15000 | 14375 | |
| Bag of Flour | Mama Gold | 50kg | 14000 | 14500 | 14000 | 14000 | 14125 | 14000 | 14500 | 14000 | 14000 | 14125 | |
| Milk | Peak Powdered (Tin) | 400g | 1200 | 1200 | 1200 | 1200 | 1200 | 1200 | 1200 | 1200 | 1200 | 1200 | |
| Milk | peak Powdered(Tin) | 900g | 2350 | 2400 | 2400 | 2300 | 2362.5 | 2350 | 2400 | 2400 | 2300 | 2362.5 | |
| Milk | Peak milk (Refill) | 500g | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | |
| Milk | Dano Powdered (Tin) | 500g | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | |
| Milk | Dano Powdered(Tin) | 900g | 2600 | 2000 | 2000 | 2000 | 2150 | 2600 | 2000 | 2000 | 2000 | 2150 | |
| Milk | Dano (Refill) | 500g | 800 | 800 | 800 | 800 | 800 | 800 | 800 | 800 | 800 | 800 | |
| Milk | Three Crown (Refill) | 380g | 700 | 700 | 750 | 700 | 712.5 | 700 | 700 | 750 | 700 | 712.5 | |
| Milk | Loya Powdered (Tin) | 400g | NA | 1000 | 1000 | 1050 | 1016.6666666667 | NA | 1000 | 1000 | 1050 | 1016.6666666667 | |
| Milk | Loya (Refill) | 400g | NA | 800 | 850 | 800 | 816.66666666667 | NA | 800 | 850 | 800 | 816.66666666667 | |
| Milk | Coast (Refill) | 500g | NA | 750 | 750 | 750 | 750 | NA | 750 | 750 | 750 | 750 | |
| Cocoa Beverages | Milo (Tin) | 500g | 1000 | 1100 | 1050 | 1000 | 1037.5 | 1000 | 1100 | 1050 | 1000 | 1037.5 | |
| Cocoa Beverages | Milo (Tin) | 900g | 2200 | 2100 | 2100 | 2100 | 2125 | 2200 | 2100 | 2100 | 2100 | 2125 | |
| Cocoa Beverages | Milo Refill | 500g | 1000 | 900 | 900 | 900 | 925 | 1000 | 900 | 900 | 900 | 925 | |
| Cocoa Beverages | Bournvita Refill | 500g | 1000 | 1000 | 950 | 900 | 962.5 | 1000 | 1000 | 950 | 900 | 962.5 | |
| Cocoa Beverages | Bournvita (Plastic) | 900g | 2000 | 2000 | 2000 | 2000 | 2000 | 2000 | 2000 | 2000 | 2000 | 2000 | |
| Cocoa Beverages | Ovaltine Refill | 500g | 850 | 800 | 850 | 850 | 837.5 | 850 | 800 | 850 | 850 | 837.5 | |
| Cocoa Beverages | Ovaltine(Plastic) | 500g | 1100 | 1100 | 1000 | 1100 | 1075 | 1100 | 1100 | 1000 | 1100 | 1075 | |
| Coffee | Nescafe Classic | 50g | 600 | 600 | 600 | 600 | 600 | 600 | 600 | 600 | 600 | 600 | |
| Tea | Lipton Yellow label | 52g | 300 | 290 | 300 | 300 | 297.5 | 300 | 290 | 300 | 300 | 297.5 | |
| Tea | Top tea | 52g | 300 | 300 | 300 | 300 | 300 | 300 | 300 | 300 | 300 | 300 | |
| Sugar | St' Loius Sugar(Cube) | 500g | 500 | 550 | 550 | 550 | 537.5 | 500 | 550 | 550 | 550 | 537.5 | |
| Sugar | Golden Penny Sugar (cube) | 500g | 300 | 350 | 350 | 400 | 350 | 300 | 350 | 350 | 400 | 350 | |
| Bread | Val-U | 1 loaf | 450 | 450 | 450 | 500 | 462.5 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 500 | 462.5 | |
| Bread | Butterfield | 1 loaf | 450 | 450 | 500 | 500 | 475 | 450 | 450 | 500 | 500 | 475 | |
| Egg | N/A | Crate | 1200 | 1200 | 1200 | 1200 | 1200 | 1200 | 1200 | 1200 | 1200 | 1200 | |
| Bottled Water (Refill) | Cway | Refill | 600 | 600 | 650 | 600 | 612.5 | 600 | 600 | 650 | 600 | 612.5 | |
| Juice | 5 Alive | 1 litre | 550 | 550 | 550 | 600 | 562.5 | 550 | 550 | 550 | 600 | 562.5 | |
| Juice | Chivita | 1 litre | 550 | 550 | 600 | 550 | 562.5 | 550 | 550 | 600 | 550 | 562.5 | |
| Gas | Refilling | 12.5kg | 3200 | 3200 | 3400 | 3300 | 3275 | 3200 | 3200 | 3400 | 3300 | 3275 | |
| Gas | Refilling | 5kg | 1400 | 1400 | 1400 | 1300 | 1375 | 1400 | 1400 | 1400 | 1300 | 1375 | |
| Tomatoes | Big Basket | round shaped | 14000 | 14000 | 14000 | 14000 | |||||||
| Tomatoes | Medium Basket | round shaped | 8500 | 8500 | 8500 | 8500 | |||||||
| Tomatoes | Small Basket | round shaped | 6000 | 6000 | 6000 | 6000 | |||||||
| Tomatoes | Big Basket | Oval Shaped | 17000 | 17000 | 16000 | 16000 | |||||||
| Tomatoes | Small Basket | Oval Shaped | 9500 | 9500 | 9000 | 9000 | |||||||
| Fish | Kote (Horse Mackerel) | 1 big Fish | 650 | 600 | 600 | 650 | 625 | 650 | 700 | 650 | 650 | 662.5 | |
| Fish | Titus (Mackerel) | 1 big Fish | 600 | 650 | 650 | 750 | 662.5 | 600 | 600 | 600 | 750 | 637.5 | |
| Pepper | Big bag | 17000 | 17000 | 15500 | 15500 | ||||||||
| Pepper | Medium bag | 9000 | 9000 | 6500 | 6500 | ||||||||
| Maize | Yellow | 21000 | 20000 | 19500 | 20166.666666667 | 18000 | 18500 | 16500 | 17666.666666667 | ||||
| Maize | White | 20500 | 19500 | 20000 | 20000 | 17000 | 18000 | 16000 | 17000 | ||||
| Melon | Big bag | 45000 | 48000 | 46500 | 40000 | 36000 | 38000 | ||||||
| Onions | Big bag | Dry Onions | 56000 | 55000 | 55500 | 37000 | 38000 | 37500 | |||||
| Onions | Big bag | New Onions | 40000 | 42000 | 41000 | 25000 | 26000 | 25500 | |||||
| Bush mango seed | (Ogbono) | 1 big bag | 100000 | 100000 | 95000 | 95000 | |||||||
| Frozen food | Full chicken | Carton | 14500 | 14000 | 15000 | 14500 | 13500 | 13500 | 15000 | 14000 | |||
| Frozen food | Chicken lap | Carton | 14000 | 14000 | 15000 | 14333.333333333 | 13000 | 15000 | 14000 | ||||
| Frozen food | Turkey | Carton | 19000 | 18000 | 18000 | 18333.333333333 | 17000 | 17500 | 17500 | 17333.333333333 | |||
| Crayfish | 12000 | 13000 | 12500 | 13000 | 13000 | 13000 |
About Nairametrics Food Price Survey
Nairametrics Food Price Watch, is a bi-weekly Household Market Survey that covers the prices of major food items in Nigeria, with emphasis on five major markets in Lagos – Mushin market, Daleko market, Oyingbo market, Idi-Oro market, and Mile 12 market.
Research Analysis
Nigeria’s dollar earnings fall by over $7 billion due to Covid-19
Nigeria recorded a whopping 52% drop in exports proceeds in the quarter ending June 2020 mostly due to the effects of Covid-19.
Nigeria recorded a whopping 52% drop in exports proceeds in the quarter ending June 2020 mostly due to the effects of Covid-19. This is contained in the Current Account Deficit numbers published by the Central Bank of Nigeria. The current account deficit for the quarter fell to $3.2 billion compared to first-quarter data of $5.6 billion, the latest report indicates.
Explore Data on the Nairametrics Research Website
Export drop
According to the data, total exports in the second quarter of the year fell to $6.3 billion from $13.8 billion in the first quarter of 2020 before the Covid-19 lockdown grounded the economy. Crude Oil inflows which Nigeria relies on for 85% of its export proceeds went from $11.2 billion in the first quarter to just $5.2 billion in the second quarter of the year.
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Crude Oil prices fell to as low as $20 per barrel in April as markets panicked as the Covid-19 lockdown spread globally. OPEC members also decided to cut crude oil output with Nigeria’s quota falling from 1.8 million barrels per day to just 1.4 million barrels per day. This culminated in lower export proceeds for Nigeria piling pressure to devalue the currency after the first devaluation in late March.
READ: Nigeria’s forex devaluation timeline – 2020
Non-oil revenues also fell sharply from $2.1 billion in the first quarter of the year to $1.1 billion in the second quarter of the year revealing how damaging the pandemic has been on the economy. Nigeria earned an average of $2.6 billion per quarter from non-oil exports in 2019, the highest since 2008 when the CBN started publishing figures.
Imports also fall
Nigeria’s dollar outflow for imports also fell from $14.7 billion in the first quarter of 2020 to $10 billion in the second quarter of the year. The fall was also driven by a drop in oil imports falling to just $307 million from $3.7 billion. Non-oil exports which is a major driver of dollar outflows from Nigeria $11 billion to $9.7 billion. This was also due to the impact of the lockdown as most goods imported into the country from other parts of the world fell.
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Despite several import substitution policies of the current government, Nigerians spent an average of $12.7 billion on the importation of goods into the country in 2019 compared to $7.3 billion a year earlier. The country’s main non-oil imports are boilers, machinery and appliances gulping over 27% of imports. Vehicle parts are also a major source of dollar outflows with over 12.8% of the value of what is imported into the country.
READ: Nigeria’s worsening current account deficit piles pressure on exchange rate
The government has focussed its ban on accessing forex for the importation of listed items which they believe can be made in Nigeria. Most of these items are food-related.
Why this matters: Nigeria’s exchange rate is mostly determined by how much dollars the country can attract compared to outflows.
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- With exports proceeds down by over 50% pressure was on the central bank to devalue the naira.
- However, the CBN also had the option of managing the demand side of the deficit culminating in a drop in current account deficits.
- The more Nigeria earns from exports compared to imports the higher the chances that the exchange rate will remain stable.
- For example, in 2018 when the exchange rate was stable at N360/$1, Nigeria earned about $15.3 billion in dollar inflows or exports (mostly from crude oil sales) compared to $10.1 billion in imports.
- Thus Nigeria will need to either earn more from exports or cut some of its reliance on imports if it is to maintain a stable exchange rate for the country.
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Fola
April 30, 2020 at 2:07 pm
Don’t give dem dis is wot u get wen a group of incompetent people govern a nation.