Brent crude surges 13% in October as Middle East attacks threaten oil supplies

Brent crude futures are heading for a fourth consecutive monthly gain, rising nearly 13% in October as escalating hostilities in the Middle East threaten global oil supplies and heighten concerns about disruptions to crude shipments.

Nairametrics checks show that Brent crude was trading at $117.30 per barrel, up 2.14%, at the time of reporting. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also gained $1.85 to trade at $103.80 per barrel.

Oil prices have remained volatile throughout October as the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran has disrupted crude flows from the Middle East and heightened uncertainty over the security of energy infrastructure and shipping routes.

What is driving oil prices higher in October?

Brent crude is on course to record an increase of nearly 13% in October, while WTI is expected to finish the month approximately 14% higher, marking the fourth consecutive monthly gain for the two benchmarks.

• The latest rally follows a significant increase in September, when Brent’s monthly average spot price rose by 25.3% to $114.16 per barrel from $91.08 in August, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration.
• The increase in September followed a period of declining prices in June and July, before the market began recovering in August. Brent’s monthly average had fallen by 20.3% in June to $85.40 and declined further by 1.9% in July to $83.76 before rising to $91.08 in August.

The latest increase reflects the persistent risk of further escalation around the Strait of Hormuz, where attacks on commercial shipping have heightened concerns about the movement of crude oil and refined petroleum products.

• “Continued kinetic action around the Strait of Hormuz amidst doubts of a viable diplomatic pathway are keeping oil prices elevated in expectation of an escalation of the conflict in coming weeks,” said Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee.

Houthis claim fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure

The latest concerns over oil supplies have also been compounded by renewed attacks claimed by Yemen’s Houthi movement against Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure.

The group’s spokesperson, Yahya Saree, said in a post on X that the Houthis had targeted the Ras Tanura refinery, the Rabigh refinery and an Aramco facility in Abqaiq, alongside King Fahd International Airport in Dammam and King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh.

• Saudi Arabia had not confirmed the latest attacks or their impact on the facilities at the time of reporting.
• The reported attack on Ras Tanura would be the second incident involving the facility in the same week. Earlier on Tuesday, reports emerged of a fire near the refinery, which Saudi authorities said had been quickly contained.
• Ras Tanura is one of Saudi Arabia’s largest refining facilities, with a processing capacity of 550,000 barrels per day, making any disruption to its operations significant for regional petroleum supplies.

The Houthis have also claimed an attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, an important alternative export route that allows the kingdom to transport crude from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

What higher oil prices mean for global energy costs

The sustained increase in crude oil prices presents another challenge for economies already grappling with elevated energy costs, as higher international oil prices can feed into the cost of transportation, electricity generation, manufacturing and petroleum products.

In Nigeria, energy inflation more than doubled to 10.85% year-on-year in September 2026, from 4.69% in August, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The development comes as governments in other markets are also taking steps to manage the effects of higher energy prices and protect domestic supplies.

• In October 2026, Niger banned petrol and diesel exports to prioritise domestic consumption, although specially authorised exports of surplus supplies by state-owned SONIDEP and refinery operator SORAZ remain permitted.
• The measure reflects the pressure on governments to secure adequate domestic supplies amid uncertainty in international energy markets.
• A September 2026 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) policy brief also indicated that global fossil-fuel subsidies could exceed $1 trillion in 2026 as governments absorb part of the energy-price shock to shield consumers and businesses from higher costs.

The scale of the projected subsidies highlights the fiscal pressure facing governments as they attempt to cushion households and businesses against rising energy prices.