Iran-US renewed conflict pushes crude oil above $95 for the first time in five weeks

Renewed military hostilities between the United States and Iran have pushed crude oil prices above $95 per barrel for the first time in five weeks, as concerns grow over potential disruptions to global oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

Checks by Nairametrics show that Brent crude was trading at $95.40 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $90.66 per barrel at the time of reporting.

The last time Brent Crude was above $95 per barrel was in late July 2026, when it hit $95.24 on July 22, 2026.

The latest rally follows an escalation in military exchanges between Washington and Tehran, which has revived fears that the conflict could further disrupt oil shipments through the strategic waterway.

What they are saying

The US military’s Central Command said it had completed a wave of strikes against targets belonging to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

• According to the US military, the targets included air defence sites, radar systems, maritime assets and facilities, mine-laying capabilities, and communications sites.
• Iran retaliated by saying it had struck US assets in Jordan and Iraq, while Iranian media also reported attacks on Bahrain.
• The IRGC claimed that a large number of US forces had been killed in Jordan. However, two US officials told Reuters that initial assessments showed there had been no casualties.

The renewed military exchanges marked the most significant escalation between the two sides in weeks and ended a period of relative calm that had raised hopes of a reduction in tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.

• Meanwhile, declining US crude inventories have provided additional support for oil prices.
• The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that US crude oil inventories fell by 2.6 million barrels in the week ending August 28, reversing the previous week’s 4.2 million-barrel increase.

Commercial crude inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), have declined by more than 48 million barrels over the past 20 weeks, although US crude inventories remain up by about 3.1 million barrels for the year, according to API data.

Get up to speed

Just a week ago, Nairametrics reported that the price of Brent crude had fallen by nearly $9 per barrel over seven days, representing a decline of about 9.6%, as renewed efforts by Iran and Oman to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz eased fears of a prolonged disruption to global oil supplies.

• At the time, hopes of reopening the strategic waterway had helped push Brent lower as markets anticipated the gradual restoration of oil shipments.
• However, the situation has taken a different turn since then as hostilities between the United States and Iran moved beyond economic pressure and renewed military exchanges.

On Monday, Nairametrics reported that crude oil prices had risen above $90 per barrel after the United States and Iran resumed military strikes over the Strait of Hormuz, reviving concerns about disruptions to global oil supplies through the strategic waterway.

What you should know

For Nigeria, a sustained rise in crude oil prices could provide support for government revenue and foreign exchange earnings, given the country’s continued dependence on crude exports.

• The timing is particularly significant following the latest GDP data, which showed that Nigeria’s oil sector expanded during the second quarter of 2026.
• The oil sector grew by 7.31% year-on-year in Q2 2026, improving significantly from the 2.57% growth recorded in Q1 2026, although it remained below the 20.46% growth recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025.
• On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the sector expanded by 10.91%.

Its contribution to real GDP also increased to 4.16% in Q2 2026, compared with 4.05% in Q2 2025 and 3.92% in Q1 2026.

• The broader Nigerian economy also expanded during the period, with real GDP growing by 4.43% year-on-year in Q2 2026, compared with 4.23% in the corresponding quarter of 2025.
• The stronger performance of the oil sector highlights its continued importance to Nigeria’s economy, meaning a sustained period of higher crude prices could improve the value of the country’s oil exports, provided production and sales remain strong.

Nigeria’s 2026 budget is based on a benchmark crude oil price of $64.85 per barrel, meaning Brent trading above $90 — and now above $95 — places the international market price significantly above the government’s fiscal benchmark.

Higher crude prices could therefore provide additional support for government oil revenues and foreign exchange earnings, provided Nigeria can sustain production levels and successfully sell its crude.

However, the benefits of higher oil prices could come with significant domestic costs.