Dangote refinery drives oil refining growth to record 43.94% in Q2

Nigeria’s oil refining sector recorded its strongest quarterly growth in expanding by 43.94% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, as rising output from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery continued to lift domestic refining activity.

The data was disclosed by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its Q2 2026 GDP report released on Monday, August 31, 2026. The report, which contains rebased quarterly GDP estimates, covers the four quarters of 2025 and the first and second quarters of 2026.

The increase comes as the Dangote refinery continues to scale up operations. Maintenance and expansion work completed in February 2026 increased the facility’s crude oil distillation capacity from 650,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 700,000 b/d.

The higher capacity has coincided with a sharp expansion in Nigeria’s refined petroleum product shipments, with the country increasingly supplying markets in Europe, Africa and Asia.

What the data is saying

The NBS figures show a sharp acceleration in oil refining activity through 2025 and the first half of 2026.

• Oil refining grew 37.46% year-on-year in Q1 2025, before accelerating to 43.94% in Q2 2026. The growth rate remained significantly above the rates recorded in the second half of 2024 under the rebased series, when refining growth stood at 19.42% in Q3 and 12.33% in Q4, with full-year growth at 14.08%.
• The expansion is also visible in the value of refining activity at current basic prices. Oil refining generated about N1.57 billion in Q1 2025, rising to N2.81 billion in Q2, before reaching N2.69 billion in Q3 and N8.05 billion in Q4.
• In 2026, the value stood at about N2.46 billion in Q1, before more than doubling to N5.36 billion in Q2. The Q2 figure was accompanied by a 90.85% nominal year-on-year increase, compared with 57.06% in Q1.

The latest performance marks a significant change from the earlier period. The figures supplied for the previous GDP series show oil refining growth at 35.84% in Q1 2023, 35.56% in Q2, 37.01% in Q3 and 35.33% in Q4, giving a full-year growth rate of 35.81%.

In 2024, growth stood at 33.38% in Q1, 35.41% in Q2, 32.39% in Q3 and 9.59% in Q4, with full-year growth at 16.67%.

How Dangote is powering the oil refining sector

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has become the dominant force behind Nigeria’s expanding refining capacity.

• The refinery, located in the Lekki Free Trade Zone on the outskirts of Lagos, increased its crude processing capacity to 700,000 b/d, above its original 650,000-b/d nameplate capacity, following performance tests and expansion work.
• The scale of its crude requirements is reflected in data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

Domestic crude oil and condensate supply to local refineries reached 97.4% in Q2 2026, with 53.7 million barrels supplied between April and June. Dangote accounted for the overwhelming share of crude offered to local refiners during the quarter.

• The refinery required 63 million barrels, while producers offered 68.1 million barrels. It eventually accepted 52.6 million barrels, equivalent to about 78% of the volume offered to it.

This represented a major improvement from Q1, when only 28.5 million barrels were delivered to all domestic refineries, despite 61.9 million barrels being allocated and 68.7 million barrels offered by producers.

The increase in crude availability, alongside Dangote’s higher processing capacity, has helped expand Nigeria’s refined petroleum output and changed the direction of the country’s petroleum trade.

More insights

The increase in refining activity comes against a broader improvement in Nigeria’s oil sector.

• The country recorded average crude oil production of 1.72 million b/d in Q2 2026, up from 1.68 million b/d in Q2 2025 and 1.55 million b/d in Q1 2026.
• The oil sector grew 7.31% year-on-year in Q2 2026, down from 20.46% in the corresponding quarter of 2025 but up from 2.57% in Q1 2026. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the sector expanded by 10.91%.

Its contribution to real GDP also increased to 4.16%, from 4.05% in Q2 2025 and 3.92% in Q1 2026.

• The broader economy also expanded during the period. Nigeria’s GDP grew by 4.43% year-on-year in real terms in Q2 2026, up from 4.23% in Q2 2025.

The non-oil sector grew by 4.31%, up from 3.64% in Q2 2025 and 3.94% in Q1 2026, and continued to account for the vast majority of economic output, contributing 95.84% to real GDP during the quarter.

What you should know

Nigeria’s expanding refining capacity is increasingly translating into exports rather than simply replacing imported petroleum products.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product exports reached 350,000 b/d in Q2 2026, compared with an annual average of 46,000 b/d in 2023. Total seaborne petroleum product shipments averaged 561,000 b/d during the quarter.

Europe received about 130,000 b/d, up from 40,000 b/d in 2025 and 15,000 b/d in 2023, while other African markets received nearly 120,000 b/d. Nigeria also exported about 110,000 b/d to Asia and Oceania during the quarter.