Boko Haram, Lakurawa exploit Nigeria’s security gaps as threats spread, SBM warns

Nigeria’s security crisis is widening as insurgent groups, criminal gangs and politically linked armed actors continue to exploit gaps in state security across several regions, according to SBM Intelligence.

The assessment was contained in SBM Intelligence’s latest security analysis, which examined recent incidents involving Boko Haram and ISWAP in the North-East, Lakurawa in the North-West, armed groups in the South-East and criminal networks across the South-South and South-West.

The report warned that while some recent military operations have weakened insurgent and criminal networks, the groups remain capable of adapting, regrouping and exploiting poorly secured communities.

What SBM Intelligence is saying

SBM Intelligence said the latest incidents point to a security environment in which non-state armed groups are increasingly exploiting weak local intelligence, difficult terrain and gaps in state presence.

• “The common thread connecting the VIP ambush in Abia State and the political abduction in Ebonyi State is the dangerous proliferation of non-state armed groups operating with high mobility across rural community boundaries, exploiting weak local intelligence systems.”

The report said Boko Haram factions operating around the Sambisa Forest are increasingly conducting opportunistic raids on peripheral communities to obtain food, medical supplies and cash as military operations restrict their access to established supply lines.

• “Given the high-density containment of Boko Haram and ISWAP terrorists in Borno State custodial facilities, the escape of an inmate is most likely attributable to insider compromise or institutional laxity, though it remains less likely that it was an externally coordinated breakout,” the report stated.
• It also warned that Lakurawa’s activities in Zamfara and Sokoto demonstrate how Islamist groups can exploit communities already affected by banditry to establish influence, raise resources and compete for control.
• In the South-South, SBM said criminal networks are increasingly relying on kidnapping, extortion and oil theft rather than large-scale militancy, creating a persistent but less visible security threat.

The report said the situation requires security forces to maintain pressure on insurgent and criminal groups while strengthening local intelligence and state presence in vulnerable communities.

The report also highlighted the changing threat posed by Lakurawa following the neutralisation of 38 of its fighters in Gummi, Zamfara.

• SBM said the operation could temporarily reduce Lakurawa’s ability to launch attacks as surviving fighters regroup, but warned that the group could respond by targeting softer and less-protected communities.
• The group’s activities in Gummi and neighbouring communities were also linked to cattle rustling, looting and attempts to establish influence through religious preaching.
• In Sokoto, SBM linked the killing of civilians in Tambuwal to Lakurawa’s ability to sustain itself through cattle theft and attacks on commercial establishments.

The report expects tensions to remain elevated in parts of Sokoto and Zamfara as security forces intensify operations against the group.

The assessment comes amid a series of security incidents across Nigeria, including the escape of an inmate from Maiduguri Maximum Security Custodial Centre, attacks on communities in Adamawa, military operations against Lakurawa fighters in Zamfara and attacks involving political and state actors in the South-East.

Get up to speed

Nigeria has seen a string of violent and high‑impact security incidents that have rocked the nation and drawn broad public concern.

One of the most high‑profile incident was the mass abduction at St. Mary’s Catholic School in Papiri, Niger State, where armed gunmen kidnapped more than 300 students and 12 teachers in late November.

• Security forces worked to free some of the children, and at least 100 have been released so far, but many children and staff remain in captivity.
• Also, gunmen stormed the Government Girls Comprehensive Secondary School in Maga, Kebbi State, killing the vice principal and abducting about 25 schoolgirls.

Earlier this month, the Unted Nations said at least 1,932 people were killed across Borno, Adamawa and Yobe states between April and June 2026, as insecurity, attacks on humanitarian personnel, bureaucratic restrictions and harsh weather conditions continued to hamper aid operations in the North-East.

On May 15, 2026, armed men attacked three schools in the Ahoro Esiele/Esiele and Yawota communities of Oriire Local Government Area, abducting several students and teachers.

• Save the Children International says at least 1,683 learners were abducted across the country between 2014 and 2022, while UNICEF estimates that insecurity forced the closure of 11,536 schools during the 2020/2021 academic session, disrupting learning for about 1.3 million children.

What you should know

In July, SBM Intelligence flagged rising kidnap threats and mob justice as armed groups shift across Nigeria.

SBM warned that armed groups across Nigeria are adapting their operations and relocating to new areas as military pressure intensifies, contributing to a rise in kidnapping, mob justice, and illegal oil refining activities.

Nairametrics last week reported that Nigeria recorded 106 violent conflict incidents resulting in 445 casualties and 256 kidnapping victims between July 26 and August 8, 2026.