Nigeria recorded a crude oil and condensate production shortfall of about 16.6 million barrels in the first two months of 2026, highlighting a significant gap between actual output and government projections.
The shortfall covers the period between January and February 2026, based on an analysis of data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission.
During the period, Nigeria produced a combined total of about 92 million barrels of crude oil and condensate, falling short of the projected 108.6 million barrels expected under the Federal Government’s 2026 production benchmark of 1.84 million barrels per day.
What the data is saying
The data underscores persistent underperformance in Nigeria’s oil sector, with production consistently trailing expectations despite favourable global oil prices.
- In January, total liquids output averaged about 1.63 million barrels per day, roughly 210,000 bpd below the government’s benchmark. The situation worsened in February, with production declining to an average of 1.48 million bpd, creating a wider gap of about 360,000 bpd.
- This decline was driven largely by a drop in crude oil production, which remains the dominant component of Nigeria’s output. Crude production fell from an average of 1.46 million bpd in January to about 1.31 million bpd in February.
Although condensate production, which is not subject to Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries quotas, provided some support, its relatively small contribution was insufficient to offset the sharp decline in crude output.
The production drop was also reflected across major export terminals. Output at key terminals such as Qua Iboe, Bonny, Forcados, Escravos, and Brass all recorded significant declines between January and February, collectively dragging down national output.
This underperformance comes at a time when global oil prices have remained strong, hovering between $110 and $120 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions. However, Nigeria’s inability to scale up production means it is unable to fully capitalise on higher prices.
More details
Recent reports by Nairametrics show that Nigeria’s oil production has remained volatile despite efforts to ramp up output.
- On February 12, Nairametrics reported that Nigeria’s crude oil production rose to about 1.459 million bpd in January 2026, maintaining its position as Africa’s largest producer, although still below its OPEC quota.
- However, production declined sharply in February. According to OPEC data, Nigeria’s output dropped to 1.31 million bpd, representing a 10.69% decrease from January levels.
Despite this dip, there are expectations of a modest recovery. Earlier reports by Nairametrics indicate that Nigeria could increase production by about 100,000 bpd in the coming months, according to the Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, Bashir Bayo Ojulari.
What you should know
Nigeria’s fiscal health remains heavily dependent on oil production volumes and global crude prices.
Higher output levels, combined with strong prices, typically translate into increased government revenue, improved foreign exchange inflows, and stronger external reserves.
- For 2026, the Federal Government adopted an ambitious oil production benchmark of 2.6 million bpd but is using a more conservative estimate of 1.8 million bpd for budget planning.
The current production shortfall, particularly in February, means Nigeria is missing out on potential revenue gains at a time when global oil prices are elevated.
