Nigeria’s crude oil production rose to 1.459 million barrels per day (bpd) in January 2026, reinforcing its position as Africa’s largest oil producer despite falling short of its Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota.
The figures were disclosed in OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released on Wednesday.
The latest data highlights modest month-on-month growth in output but underscores Nigeria’s continued struggle to meet its assigned production ceiling.
The increase signals gradual recovery in output levels, even as structural and operational challenges persist in the oil sector.
While Nigeria retained its top ranking on the continent, it has now recorded six consecutive months below its OPEC quota.
What the data is saying
Nigeria’s crude oil production rose from 1.422 million bpd in December 2025 to 1.459 million bpd in January 2026, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 37,000 bpd. The data was sourced through direct communication between OPEC and Nigerian authorities.
- Nigeria’s January output stood at 1.459 million bpd, up by 37,000 bpd from December’s 1.422 million bpd.
- The country’s OPEC production quota remains 1.5 million bpd, leaving January output about 50,000 bpd below target.
- Secondary sources cited by OPEC placed Nigeria’s production slightly higher at 1.47 million bpd.
Libya ranked second in Africa with 1.37 million bpd during the same period.
The variance between direct communication figures and secondary source estimates reflects differences in tracking methodologies commonly observed in OPEC reporting.
Get up to speed
Nigeria has struggled to consistently meet its OPEC production quota over the past year due to a mix of security and infrastructure challenges.
- Oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and years of underinvestment in upstream infrastructure have constrained production capacity.
- Nigeria has now missed its 1.5 million bpd quota for six consecutive months – the last time being July 2025.
- Persistent oil theft and sabotage in the Niger Delta have disrupted output levels.
- Underinvestment in upstream assets has limited the country’s ability to scale production quickly.
- Operational disruptions and maintenance issues have further weighed on performance.
Although output has shown gradual improvement in recent months, industry observers maintain that structural reforms and enhanced security measures are critical to sustaining growth and closing the quota gap.
More Insights
Beyond Nigeria, OPEC reported that total crude oil production by Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) countries averaged 42.45 million bpd in January 2026, according to secondary sources. This marked a month-on-month decline of 439,000 bpd.
- Total DoC crude production stood at 42.45 million bpd in January.
- Output declined by 439,000 bpd compared to December levels.
- The production adjustment aligns with OPEC’s broader market stabilisation strategy.
The broader reduction reflects ongoing production management efforts by oil-producing nations aimed at balancing global supply amid fluctuating demand and macroeconomic uncertainties.
What you should know
Oil production remains central to Nigeria’s economic stability, as crude exports account for the bulk of foreign exchange earnings and a significant share of government revenue. Improved output levels are expected to support fiscal performance, ease pressure on external reserves, and aid budget implementation.
- Crude oil exports remain Nigeria’s primary source of foreign exchange inflows.
- Government revenue performance is closely tied to production volumes and global oil prices.
- Sustained output growth could strengthen external reserves and reduce fiscal strain.
The Federal Government adopted a 2.6 million bpd oil production benchmark for 2026, but will use a more conservative 1.8 million bpd for budgeting.
