Nigeria’s crude oil production slipped slightly to 1.422 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2025, down from 1.436 million bpd in November.
This is according to the latest Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released on Wednesday.
The data show that Africa’s largest oil producer has now missed its OPEC-assigned production quota for the fifth consecutive month, demonstrating persistent output challenges despite ongoing reforms in the upstream sector.
What the data is saying
OPEC data indicate that Nigeria last met its production quota in July 2025, with output remaining below target from August through December.
Quarterly figures reveal a consistent decline across 2025:
- Q1: 1.468 million bpd
- Q2: 1.481 million bpd
- Q3: 1.444 million bpd
- Q4: 1.42 million bpd
The downward trend highlights structural and operational constraints affecting Nigeria’s oil production capacity.
OPEC compiles production data using two approaches: direct communication from member countries and estimates from secondary sources such as independent energy intelligence agencies.
While Nigeria’s output declined based on direct communication data, secondary sources cited by OPEC presented a more optimistic outlook.
According to these secondary estimates, Nigeria produced 1.5 million bpd in December, a 1.35% increase from the 1.48 million bpd recorded in November.
Despite falling short of its quota, Nigeria maintained its position as Africa’s largest oil producer, ahead of Libya, which produced 1.37 million bpd during the same period.
At the broader OPEC level, crude oil production by countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) averaged 42.83 million bpd in December 2025, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 238,000 bpd, based on secondary source data.
Why this matter
Crude oil remains Nigeria’s largest source of foreign exchange earnings and government revenue.
Sustained underperformance against OPEC quotas limits the country’s ability to fully benefit from higher global oil prices, at a time when fiscal pressures and foreign exchange shortages persist.
The production gap also raises concerns about Nigeria’s capacity to scale output even as OPEC gradually relaxes supply restrictions.
What you should know
Domestic figures paint a stronger picture when condensate production is included.
According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) report titled “Crude Oil and Condensate Production 2025,” Nigeria’s combined crude and condensate output averaged 1.64 million bpd in the first 11 months of 2025.
Condensates are excluded from OPEC quota calculations, explaining the disparity between OPEC-reported crude output and Nigeria’s domestic production figures.
