The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has projected that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate will drop to 14% in 2026, driven by a combination of easing food prices, stable energy costs, and continued appreciation of the naira.
The Director of Research and Economic Policy Division at MAN, Dr Oluwasegun Osidipe made the projections on Tuesday in Lagos at a press conference on the 2025 MAN Think Tank Session.
He said, “Headline Inflation will decelerate further to 14 per cent, supported by easing food prices, stable energy prices and appreciation of the naira.”
MAN expressed optimism that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will sustain its disinflationary policy measures, which are expected to create a more stable macroeconomic environment conducive to growth and investment.
MAN projects MPR to reduce to 23%
MAN also forecasted that the benchmark interest rate would be reduced to around 23% in 2026 as part of the CBN’s efforts to stimulate credit expansion and boost output growth.
Osidipe said, “The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is anticipated to implement further cuts in the benchmark interest rate to about 23 per cent, in line with dis-inflationary trend and to stimulate credit expansion and output growth.
“Further reduction in lending rates and completion of the bank recapitalisation exercise will enhance credit availability to manufacturers, strengthening investment and capacity utilisation,” Osidipe said.
The association also projected further strengthening of the naira. According to Osidipe, “For manufacturers, naira is projected to appreciate further to N1,300–N1,400/$, driven by global oil price recovery, stronger external reserves, robust export earnings, increased foreign investments and remittance inflows.”
New tax laws, “Nigeria First” policy, others to drive growth
MAN hinged the expected gains on effective execution of new tax laws’ incentives, operationalisation of the National Single Window Project and purposeful implementation of Nigeria Industrial Policy in close alignment with the “Nigeria First” policy framework.
Osidipe said overall GDP growth was expected to reach 4 per cent in 2026 due to higher oil output and further improvement in fiscal space.
He added that expansion in the financial and manufacturing sectors, and heightened consumption during the election campaigns in Q4 2026, would also spur GDP growth.
What you should know
The CBN Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) had, in September, reduced the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points, lowering it from 27.5% to 27%.
The decision was announced by CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, during the post-MPC press briefing on Tuesday, following the Committee’s 302nd meeting in Abuja.
Alongside the MPR cut, the MPC narrowed the asymmetric corridor around the benchmark rate to +250 and -250 basis points, from the previous +500/-100 basis points.
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 18.02% during the month, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Since March, inflation has been on a steady decline nationwide. However, while some states have benefited from this trend, others continue to struggle with elevated living costs.
Earlier, the Standard Bank projected that the Naira would close at N1,473/$1 by December 2026.
