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Macro-Economic News

13.9 million Nigerian youth are unemployed – NBS

About 13.9 million Nigerian youth are unemployed as of Q2 2020.

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13.9 million Nigerian youth are unemployed - NBS

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics reveals Nigeria’s unemployment rate as at the second quarter of 2020 is 27.1% indicating that about  21,764,614 (21.7 million) Nigerians remain unemployed.

Nigeria’s unemployment and underemployment rate (28.6%) is a combined 55.7%. This means the total number of Nigerians who are unemployed or underemployed as at 2020 Q2.

The data also reveals the worst-hit are Nigerian youths with over 13.9 million currently unemployed.  In Q3 2018, the last time the report was released there were about 13.1 million Nigerian youths unemployed. Youth between the ages 15-24 have about 6.8 million Nigerians out of jobs and another 7.1 million also unemployed.

Key highlights

  • The highest unemployment rate was recorded for youths between 15 – 24 years 40.8%,
  • This is followed by ages 25 – 34 years at 30.7%.
  • NCE/OND and Nursing recorded an unemployment rate of 30.8%
  • The unemployment rate amongst second-degree holders (M.Sc/MS/MAdm) stood at 22.9%
  • Unemployment rate as classified by Doctorate degree holders is 23.3%

What this means: The NBS also reports Nigeria’s youth population eligible to work is about 40 million out of which only 14.7 million are fully employed and another 11.2 million are unemployed. A high youth unemployment rate is synonymous with increased insecurity and poverty a situation that is also seen as a ticking time bomb.

To put things into context, Nigeria’s unemployed youth of 13.1 million is more than the population of Rwanda and several other African countries. Youth Population is also about 64% of total unemployed Nigerians suggesting that the most agile working-class population in the country remains unemployed.

The Covid-19 pandemic has also worsened the economic condition in the country making it even harder for employers to create more jobs. The private sector has relied on cutting jobs in the guise of downsizing and right sizing to reduce overheads and stay afloat.

The recent data also buttresses the high rate of Nigerians seeking greener pastures outside the country with most of them highly skilled and looking for jobs of the future. According to most recent data, in 2019 about 12,600 Nigerians gained permanent residency in Canada last year helping the country to become the fourth-leading source country of new immigrants to Canada, behind India, China, and the Philippines.

Last year, the Government of Canada revealed Nigeria ranks third in the rating of the countries with the highest number of Express Entry invitations to Canada in 2018. This is revealed in the 2018 report released by the Canada Government. According to the report, a total number of 6,025 Citizens of Nigeria received invitations to apply (ITAs) for Canadian Express Entry in 2018. It was further revealed that Nigeria is just behind China who recorded 6,248 ITAs in 2018.

 

 

 

Nairametrics Research team tracks, collates, maintains and manages a rich database of macro-economic and micro-economic data from Nigeria and Africa. Our analysts share some of the data collated on Nairametrics, using formats such as docs, tables and charts etc. The team also publishes research based analysis as articles on a regular basis.

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Macro-Economic News

The moment Emefiele predicted Nigeria will be out of recession in Q4 2020

The CBN Governor had expressed optimism last year that the country was going to come out of recession in Q4 of 2020.

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parallel market, Covid-19: N3.5 trillion disbursed as stimulus package for the Nigerian economy, CBN Vs NESG: Waving the white flag for the benefit of Nigerians, Exchange Rate Unification: CBN devalues official rate to N380/$1, Nigerian banks have written off N1.9 trillion impaired loans in past 4 years, CBN sandbox operations, Stirling Trust Company Limited, Key highlights of the October 2020 Business Expectations Survey Report, A Total of N3.5 trillion was disbursed in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to several other interventions to reflate the economy - CBN, BOFIA 2020: Steps forward or backwards for Nigerian banks, Total credit to the economy rose to N19.54trillion – CBN Governor

It is no longer news that Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, against all expectations exited recession as its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.11% in the last quarter of 2020 (year on year).

However, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Godwin Emefiele, had expressed optimism last year that the country was going to come out of recession in the fourth quarter of 2020.

According to the report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), this is the first positive quarterly growth in the last 3 quarters following growth in telecommunications and agriculture which seem to make up for the sharp drop in oil prices and production.

The surprising rebound of the Nigerian economy is coming against the prediction of the country’s Minister for Finance, Budget and National Planning, Zainab Ahmed, who while speaking at the 26th Nigerian Economic Summit, said that Nigeria is expected to exit recession by the first quarter of 2021.

The CBN Governor had during the November 2020 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, predicted that the country was going to come out of recession by the fourth quarter of 2020.

This as he said that many analysts expressed doubts about that and were waiting to prove him wrong.

In a video during a press conference as seen by Nairametrics, Emefiele said, “You said that in November MPC, I was cautiously optimistic that fourth-quarter GDP will be positive thereby taking Nigeria out of a recession that I was aggressively optimistic that during the first quarter, we will exit recession. I am praying very seriously that my prayer should be heard because I know that people are waiting to put my neck on the chopping board to say that I do not know my work.’’

What you should know

  • Despite Nigeria’s surprise exit from recession, experts have still expressed their reservations about the country’s weak economy which is faced with several challenges for businesses ranging from foreign exchange pressure, high unemployment level, increasing consumer prices, serious security challenges, weak investor confidence, etc.
  • This is as the growth in GDP was primarily driven by the Information and Communication sector and the Agricultural sector.
  • However, the surprise rebound of the economy means that Nigeria may recover faster than expected as crude oil prices and production increase this year.
  • This also shows that the country needs to redouble its efforts in the growth of the non-oil sector which contributed 94.13% to Nigeria’s GDP.

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Macro-Economic News

Aviation’s real GDP contracts by 36.98% in 2020

Real GDP contracted by 36.96% in 2020 compared to the 13.17% recorded in 2019.

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The real Gross Domestic Product of the aviation sector contracted by 36.96% in 2020 compared to the 13.17% recorded in 2019.

This was disclosed by the National Bureau of Statistics in its Q4 2020 GDP and full-year 2020 report on Thursday.

It tweeted, “Air Transport under Transportation & Storage real GDP contracted -51.69% compared to -38.86% in Q3 2020 & -14.98% in Q4 2019. 2020 Air transport real GDP contracted -36.98% compared to 13.17% in 2019.”

READ: Nigeria’s oil sector contracts by 13.89%, as covid-19 plunges economy into recession

READ: Nigeria’s GDP contracts by 1.92% in 2020, as economy initiates recovery

What you should know

Nairametrics reported last year that contribution of the Aviation industry to Nigeria’s economy (in nominal value) increased by 0.14% in 2019, as it rose to N198.62 billion. This was disclosed by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). But there are concerns that the feat would not be repeated or surpassed in 2020, as the industry is expected to suffer a decline.

READ: GDP: Agriculture sector grows by 3.42% in Q4 2020

Prior to 2019, the Aviation Industry contributed N149.35 billion to the country’s gross domestic product in 2018, representing 0.12%, but in 2019, the figure increased due to political activities in Nigeria. Nigeria held its elections last

 

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