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Dangote Sugar’s outlook improves amidst expected headwinds

Following upward revisions to our forecasts, we revise our target price higher to N17.65/s from N13.87/s previously.

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Dangote Sugar Refinery to merge with Savannah Sugar, Dangote was $4.3 billion richer in 2019, Dangote Sugar announces closed period, ban insider shareholders from trading , Dangote Cement: Weak revenue performance, elevated OPEX weigh on earnings

Dangote Sugar reported a modest 7.1% y/y growth in Revenue to N161.1bn in FY 2019 from N150.4bn in FY 2018. Net Income also grew 1.8% y/y to N22.4bn for FY 2019. Q4 was a strong quarter as Revenue grew strongly q/q, up 17.8% to N43.7bn in Q4 2019 from N37.1bn in Q3 2019. Compared with Q4 2018, Revenue grew strongly, up 33.6% y/y. Net Income also grew strongly y/y, up 105.5% to N7.7bn for Q4 2019. Though Net Income declined 9.0% y/y and 16.8% q/q in Q1 2020, Revenue grew significantly, up 24.9% y/y and 9.9% q/q.

We raise our key forecasts higher over 2020e-2024e. Volumes have recovered following closure of the border in August 2019 while the company has been able to implement price increases since Q4 2019 in the absence of lower priced smuggled sugar. Despite expected headwinds such as, possible opening of the borders, expected stutter in demand following disruptions to industrial activities & ban on social gatherings and elevated cost pressures due to higher import duty on raw sugar, VAT increases and FX concerns, we expect recovery in industrial activities in Q3 and Q4 to sustain growth albeit at a slower pace.

Following upward revisions to our forecasts, we revise our target price higher to N17.65/s from N13.87/s previously. Our new target price implies 21.3% upside to Monday’s closing price of N14.55/s, making us upgrade our recommendation to a BUY from HOLD previously. Our valuation combines a mix of DCF analysis and relative valuation in the ratio 60:40 with the greater weighting on DCF valuation.


CSL Stockbrokers Limited, Lagos (CSLS) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of FCMB Group Plc and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission, Nigeria. CSLS is a member of the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

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Market Views

Bitcoin, Gold, leading Stocks tumble on strong U.S dollar

The U.S dollar index gained 0.6% on the day to settle at 90.77.

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Crypto, Investors flock to US dollar, Gold, Bitcoin, as Global Stocks record heavy sell-offs, Twitter Poll: Bitcoin price expected to reach $100,000 by 2021, cybercriminals, What it will take Bitcoin to hit $100,000?

The dollar was fired up at the last trading session of the week crushing its major currency rivals, Bitcoin, Gold, and leading global Stocks.

The U.S dollar retained its safe-haven status on the account of the U.S Dollar Index settled remarkably higher than a basket of six other global major currencies.

The U.S dollar index gained 0.6% on the day to settle at 90.77.

READ: U.S Central Bank leader says no rush into crypto dollar

What this means

Investors are piling to the U.S dollar after receiving worrying U.S economic data. Retail sales in the world’s largest economy were off 0.7% last month, the third straight drop.

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  • Such upsides seen in the greenback’s value saw gold at the expense of a charging dollar whose strength astonished metal traders, saw gold futures losing as much as 1.16% to settle at 1,829.90/ounce
  • Also at press time the flagship crypto asset, Bitcoin traded at $35,756.99 with a daily trading volume of $70 Billion.
  • Bitcoin is down 7.38% for the day.

READ: Google, Facebook, Twitter stocks drop, investors ponder if big techs have become too powerful

Also, the world’s biggest stock market by market volume and liquidity suffered heavy losses, as data showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged by 0.57% to settle at 30,814.26 index points, the S&P 500 lost about 0.72% to settle at 3,768.25 and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.87% to close at 12,998.50 index points.

The greenback was an outlier at the last trading session despite drops seen in U.S bond yields associated with the benchmark 10-year U.S. note, whose resurgence in the previous week had been the catalyst for the U.S dollar comeback.

READ: Gold on a grand slam win, gains $40 per ounce

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What they are saying

Milan Cutkovic, Market Analyst at Axi, in an explanatory note to Nairametrics, spoke on fundamentals supporting the rebound of the U.S dollar;

  • “Many investors continue to stand on the side lines. President-elect Joe Biden unveiled his US$1.9 trillion stimulus plan. There were no major surprises, and a lot of it was already priced in.
  • “Investors are now focused on how quickly the Biden administration can implement their plans and support the ailing US economy. Although Biden will be inaugurated on Wednesday, the second impeachment of Donald Trump might overshadow the first few weeks of his term.
  • “Investors are also increasingly confronted with the reality that the pandemic is still far from being under control, despite the significant progress that was made in the past few months, and several COVID-19 vaccines already on the market.”

READ: Silver surpasses three-week high, joins Bullish momentum

Bottom line

Investors are increasingly confronted with the reality that the pandemic is still far from being under control, thereby flocking back to the safe-haven currency despite the significant progress that was made in the past few months, and several COVID-19 vaccines already on the market.

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Market Views

Google, Facebook, Twitter stocks drop, investors ponder if big techs have become too powerful

Some powerful politicians have publicly decried the role these tech brands are having in censoring speeches.

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Leading U.S tech stocks including Facebook, Apple, Twitter, Amazon, and Google experienced record sell-offs on growing global sentiments that big tech companies are getting out of control.

Such macros weighed heavily on these stocks as evidenced in Monday’s trading session performance for these tech stocks.

READ: Top 10 stockbroking firms traded stocks worth N1.17 trillion in 2020

At the end of Monday’s trading session,

  • Twitter lost about 6.41%
  • Facebook down by 4.01%
  • Apple dropped 2.32%
  • Google (Alphabet) fell by 2.31%
  • Amazon down by 2.15%

READ: Opera launches Opera For Business and announces new partnership with Google My Business

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Also, some powerful politicians publicly decried the role these tech brands are having on censoring speech, as senior lawmakers in France and Germany, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, voiced their concerns.

The fall is largely attributed to record sell-offs from investors on account of these tech brands’ decision to permanently ban one of its most popular and powerful users, President Trump, and other leading voices from their social networks.

READ: 5 Nigerian startups selected to join 7 others at the Africa Tech Summit Connects (ATS)

What this means

Stock experts further anticipate such a move could deprive fast-rising tech brands of one of their best traffic-generators, as well as risking alienating some people who share the opinion that tech brands like Twitter, Google, Facebook have become too powerful.

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Milan Cutkovic, Market Analyst at Axi, in a note to Nairametrics, spoke on the prevailing macros disrupting U.S stocks at least for the near term.

READ: Africa’s internet economy has the potential to reach 5.2% of the continent’s GDP by 2025 – Goggle/IFC

  • “Fears of a global trade war have weighed multiple times on markets during the past few years. While concerns remain, the risk of trade tensions escalating has declined with Biden entering the White House soon.
  • “While the US-China relations will remain complex, they could warm up somewhat after four turbulent years. Meanwhile, tech giants, Facebook and Twitter, have found themselves in a political crossfire by blocking US President Trump from their platform, which also weighed on the NASDAQ index.”

READ: Banks Vs Fintechs – Who should be Afraid? (Part Two)

What to expect: The question of whether big tech has become too powerful is likely to lead to some heated discussions in the coming weeks.

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Market Views

Twitter drops 8.5% in early trading over President Trump ban

Record sell-offs from investors on account of the social media giant’s decision to ban, one of its most popular and powerful user, President Trump.

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US Elections: Twitter, Facebook suspend several news accounts

An American leading social media company, Twitter, saw its shares drop as much as 8.5% at the start of Monday’s trading session on the New York Stock Exchange.

READMike Pence to go against Trump, announces he will attend inauguration

The fall is largely attributed to record sell-offs from investors on account of the social media giant’s decision to ban one of its most popular and powerful users, President Trump, permanently from its social network.

READ: Co-founder of Floyd Mayweather-backed crypto sentenced to prison for fraud

Stock experts further anticipate such a move deprives the fast-rising tech brand of one of its best traffic-generators, as well as risking alienating some people who share the opinion that tech brands like Twitter, Google, Facebook have become too powerful.

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READ: Facebook suspends Donald Trump indefinitely

The tech brands are trying to stay away from accusations that they helped fuel the violence during the storming of the Capitol in Washington some days ago by a mob sympathetic to President’s Trump election loss.

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