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Market Views

Dangote Sugar’s outlook improves amidst expected headwinds

Following upward revisions to our forecasts, we revise our target price higher to N17.65/s from N13.87/s previously.

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Dangote Sugar Refinery to merge with Savannah Sugar, Dangote was $4.3 billion richer in 2019, Dangote Sugar announces closed period, ban insider shareholders from trading , Dangote Cement: Weak revenue performance, elevated OPEX weigh on earnings

Dangote Sugar reported a modest 7.1% y/y growth in Revenue to N161.1bn in FY 2019 from N150.4bn in FY 2018. Net Income also grew 1.8% y/y to N22.4bn for FY 2019. Q4 was a strong quarter as Revenue grew strongly q/q, up 17.8% to N43.7bn in Q4 2019 from N37.1bn in Q3 2019. Compared with Q4 2018, Revenue grew strongly, up 33.6% y/y. Net Income also grew strongly y/y, up 105.5% to N7.7bn for Q4 2019. Though Net Income declined 9.0% y/y and 16.8% q/q in Q1 2020, Revenue grew significantly, up 24.9% y/y and 9.9% q/q.

We raise our key forecasts higher over 2020e-2024e. Volumes have recovered following closure of the border in August 2019 while the company has been able to implement price increases since Q4 2019 in the absence of lower priced smuggled sugar. Despite expected headwinds such as, possible opening of the borders, expected stutter in demand following disruptions to industrial activities & ban on social gatherings and elevated cost pressures due to higher import duty on raw sugar, VAT increases and FX concerns, we expect recovery in industrial activities in Q3 and Q4 to sustain growth albeit at a slower pace.

Following upward revisions to our forecasts, we revise our target price higher to N17.65/s from N13.87/s previously. Our new target price implies 21.3% upside to Monday’s closing price of N14.55/s, making us upgrade our recommendation to a BUY from HOLD previously. Our valuation combines a mix of DCF analysis and relative valuation in the ratio 60:40 with the greater weighting on DCF valuation.


CSL Stockbrokers Limited, Lagos (CSLS) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of FCMB Group Plc and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission, Nigeria. CSLS is a member of the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

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Cryptocurrency

Cryptos having better technology than Bitcoin

Cardano (ADA), Tezos (XTZ), Fantom (FTM), and Cosmos (ATOM) are the four top cryptos in terms of technology.

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Cryptos having better technology than Bitcoin

A top crypto rating agency Weiss Ratings, recently disclosed that many cryptos are having a better technology experience than XRP and the world’s flagship crypto, Bitcoin.

It further explained that it was able to make such judgment by using a unique model that measures data points as it ranks each crypto coin in categories such as technology, investment risk, adoption, and market momentum.

READ: Fitch rates 3 Nigerian banks lower to ‘B’, places others on negative watch

The Model used by Weiss Crypto Ratings in determining the crypto having superior technology included measuring each cryptocurrency’s potential to achieve a variety of goals, including high transaction speeds and others like governance capabilities, flexibility to upgrade, scaling solutions, decentralization, energy efficiency, the sophistication of monetary policy.

Explore the Nairametrics Research Website for Economic and Financial Data 

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Weiss Ratings picked Cardano (ADA), Tezos (XTZ), Fantom (FTM), and Cosmos (ATOM) as the four top cryptos in terms of technology, giving all of them an “Excellent” rating. Holo (HOT), Ethereum (ETH), Iota (IOTA), Bitshares (BTS), Grin (GRIN), and Nexus (NXS) all received a “Good” rating from Weiss. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP both received “Fair” ratings.

READ ALSO: Naijacrypto fast becoming Nigeria’s all in one exchange

Quick fact about some of the top-ranked cryptos:

  • Cardano is a type of blockchain that permits people to receive and send funds. ADA coin is the name of the cryptocurrency. It uses the Cardano blockchain. It also allows people to design smart contracts just like Ethereum. The chip can store private keys and the system proposed by Cardano’s founder will allow them to be transferred from one chip to another.
  • Tezos, which was designed as a “self-amending cryptographic ledger” and uses the so-called verification model, has emerged a big fan of tokenized real-estate and security tokens.
  • Cosmos is designed to enable a network of crypto networks united by open-source tools for streamlining transactions around them. The Cosmos Hub, a proof-of-stake blockchain, is powered by its native ATOM cryptocurrency.
  • FANTOM is a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) based Smart Contract platform designed in solving the scalability issues of distributed ledger technologies.

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Market Views

Forex trading during COVID-19 era in Nigeria 

As the COVID-19 crisis continues to disrupt economic activities, it is best to understand the leverage offered to forex traders.

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Exchange rate falls at the NAFEX window on a depressed forex market

With a blurred economic outlook in the corner and the ravaging COVID-19 onslaught hitting record highs, financial traders, including forex traders around the globe are repositioning for opportunities.

It should be noted that the currency market is by far the largest financial market in terms of liquidity, value, and turnover. It looks to be on the rise, as remote trading takes shape.

READ: Crude oil prices post more than 10% losses in 2 weeks

In 2016, the currency industry was valued at $1.934 quadrillion dollars, with forex trading turning over $5.1 trillion daily. In 2019, it was estimated to be worth a staggering $2.409 quadrillion dollars, with a daily turnover of $6.6 trillion.

According to the Bank for International Settlements, and buttressed by data from Bloomberg News, currency trading volume in the global foreign-exchange market has jumped to the highest-ever level at $6.6 trillion.

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As the COVID-19 crisis continues to disrupt economic activities at unprecedented levels for traders and banks;  Nairametrics considers it pertinent to empower its readers on the best way to position, and take advantage of the volatility, as it is bound to trigger potential opportunities.

READ: U.S dollar drops lower, as U.S Federal Reserve plans on boosting inflation

Uche Paragon, Head of Education, CCI Trading Africa, in a recent interactive session, witnessed by Nairametrics, spoke on the critical steps a forex trader must take to become successful.

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He said, “There are no universal rules in trading forex per se, what is really important is that you define the strategy, and the platform you use in trading,”

On strategy, He highlighted on traders sticking to a particular strategy, for example, focusing on a tested indicator on a currency pair in a given market, coupled with avoiding platforms exposed to high slippage and trading manipulation by certain forex brokers, especially most of the non-ECN brokers.

READ: DeFi crypto market value gains over 1000% from June

Also,Uche Paragon gave the importance of the use in Research trading tool, study techniques and how they can be implemented in your strategy. Study how the market behaves and learn how the trading industry works.

In a detailed explanatory note, Adegbotolu Kehinde Erastus, Research and Market Analyst, Scope Markets, gave detailed insights on the endless opportunities of the forex market saying;

“With Nigeria’s population presently standing at over 200 million, comprising of vibrant youths who are mostly unemployed, forex trading has become a legitimate way for them to earn money at their fingertips, and also it has become a way to earn passive income for the employed populace. Brokers now support their clients with lots of educational material on Forex trading

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READ: S&P 500 futures suffer longest run of losses since February

“So, one doesn’t necessarily need to have an educational background about the financial markets, everything from the basics to the advanced, trading strategies are all available with the broker any client wishes to register with. One of the advantages of forex trading is that a trader can profit under any market condition.

“Even when the market is rising or falling with very good trading strategies, you can make very good profits, and because the financial market is available for 24 hours from Monday to Friday, with different market sessions, profitable trading opportunities do not cease. Even when COVID-19 put all commercial activities to a halt, the Forex market was still very active with traders making profits.”

Finally, it’s critical to observe that though currency trading often brings substantial profits, it is important to note that the leverage offered to forex traders, comes with a high risk of losing your capital.

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Currencies

U.S dollar is king, hits two months high

Amid rising COVID-19 caseloads and other militating factors, the greenback recently surged high.

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The US dollar remains king, U.S dollar gains against major currencies, America threatens China with sanctions., U.S dollar slumps against major currencies, investors become optimistic about global demand, U.S Dollar Stands Firm, Foreign Exchange Traders Remain Neutral 

The U.S dollar surges past fresh two-month highs at the last trading day of the week.

In addition to the impressive run, the safe-haven currency is set to finish this month with its biggest weekly increase since March as traders flock to the greenback for refuge amid rising COVID-19 caseloads and lingering passage of the U.S stimulus bill.

  • The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of major currencies, rose by 0.25%, to trade at 94.627. The last time it traded at that level was 19th of July 2020.
  • Elsewhere, the greenback was also supported by weaknesses in the euro and Brtish pound as the second wave of Covid-19 onslaughts rattled the mind of investors

READ: Why Ripple might be the future of digital payments

Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at AxiCorp in a note to Nairametrics gave keynotes on the strength of the world’s most favored safe haven at the moment, by saying;

“US dollar demand resurfaced as the New York session got underway, with virtually all currencies, local and G-10, slipping again as another wave of de-risking perhaps ensued.

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“Any dollar pulls back in Asia were faded, suggesting we’re still on the path of least resistance higher of the Greenback. The market remains completely downcast by the drip-feed of unflattering events.”

READ: Ripple’s chairman transfers 500,000,000 XRP

Quick fact:

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  • The U.S. Dollar Index tracks the greenback against a basket of major global currencies such as the Japanese yen, British pound sterling, Swedish Krona, Euro, etc.
  • Individuals hoping to meet foreign exchange payment obligations via dollar transactions to countries like Europe, and Japan, would need to pay fewer dollars in fulfilling such payment obligations.

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