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Market Views

Dangote Sugar’s outlook improves amidst expected headwinds

Following upward revisions to our forecasts, we revise our target price higher to N17.65/s from N13.87/s previously.

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Dangote Sugar Refinery to merge with Savannah Sugar, Dangote was $4.3 billion richer in 2019, Dangote Sugar announces closed period, ban insider shareholders from trading , Dangote Cement: Weak revenue performance, elevated OPEX weigh on earnings

Dangote Sugar reported a modest 7.1% y/y growth in Revenue to N161.1bn in FY 2019 from N150.4bn in FY 2018. Net Income also grew 1.8% y/y to N22.4bn for FY 2019. Q4 was a strong quarter as Revenue grew strongly q/q, up 17.8% to N43.7bn in Q4 2019 from N37.1bn in Q3 2019. Compared with Q4 2018, Revenue grew strongly, up 33.6% y/y. Net Income also grew strongly y/y, up 105.5% to N7.7bn for Q4 2019. Though Net Income declined 9.0% y/y and 16.8% q/q in Q1 2020, Revenue grew significantly, up 24.9% y/y and 9.9% q/q.

We raise our key forecasts higher over 2020e-2024e. Volumes have recovered following closure of the border in August 2019 while the company has been able to implement price increases since Q4 2019 in the absence of lower priced smuggled sugar. Despite expected headwinds such as, possible opening of the borders, expected stutter in demand following disruptions to industrial activities & ban on social gatherings and elevated cost pressures due to higher import duty on raw sugar, VAT increases and FX concerns, we expect recovery in industrial activities in Q3 and Q4 to sustain growth albeit at a slower pace.

Following upward revisions to our forecasts, we revise our target price higher to N17.65/s from N13.87/s previously. Our new target price implies 21.3% upside to Monday’s closing price of N14.55/s, making us upgrade our recommendation to a BUY from HOLD previously. Our valuation combines a mix of DCF analysis and relative valuation in the ratio 60:40 with the greater weighting on DCF valuation.


CSL Stockbrokers Limited, Lagos (CSLS) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of FCMB Group Plc and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission, Nigeria. CSLS is a member of the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

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Financial Services

PayPal post its strongest Q1, with net profits of $1.10 billion

PayPal currently has 392 million active accounts with net profit in Q1 rising to $1.10 billion.

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PayPal acquires shopping browser extension company for $4 billion

The fintech juggernaut posted impressive growth in its revenues in Q1 bolstered by the growing usage of the digital economy. PayPal stated it had revenues of $6.03 billion in Q1 and earnings per share of $1.22, which outperformed market analysts’ forecast of $1.01.

Altogether PayPal currently has 392 million active accounts with net profit in Q1 rising to $1.10 billion from $84 million a year earlier.

The company is riding high taking into consideration that online shopping hit a record high spurred by COVID-19, though some market pundits argue that such could change as the pandemic eased. Still, PayPal’s stellar performance does not look likely to succumb to that prediction anytime soon.

Highlights of PayPal Q1 earning results

  • Earnings per share: $1.22, adjusted, vs. $1.01 per share expected in a Refinitiv survey of analysts.
  • Revenue: $6.03 billion vs. $5.90 billion expected by Refinitiv.
  • Total payment volume: $285 billion vs. $265 billion expected in a FactSet survey.

“Our strong first-quarter results demonstrate sustained momentum in our business as the world shifts into the digital economy,” said CEO Dan Schulman in a statement.

The company’s impressive performance was also reflected in the addition of 14.5 million new active accounts, with 1.5 million new merchant accounts included, bringing the total merchant accounts to 31 million globally.

“Our record-breaking first quarter results underscore the ongoing strength, diversification, and relevance of our scaled, two-sided, global payments platform. We are raising our FY’21 guidance based on these strong results.” John Rainey the CFO added.

Consequently, Paypal has upgraded its service offerings with the option of the ability for splitting up purchases and paying them off for a period of time as well as the ability to purchase and sell, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash.

Recent price actions reveal PayPal rose as high as $259.55 in extended New York trading after the announcement was made thereby posting gains of 4.65%.

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Market Views

Economic summary: Crypto, Inflation & SIM Card Policies for the past week

Getting up to an eventful week ahead, these are the things you should know.

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Foreign investors demand for Nigerian stocks increases to N38.98 billion, Nigerians reveal why they pick their favourite banking stocks

Last week was interesting and we tracked some notable events in the economy and markets that would likely have an impact on your money this week.

Economic Indicators

The National Bureau of Statistics released its monthly inflation figures and it is pretty clear that inflation in Nigeria is going only one way — up. Inflation rate stands at 18.17% for the month of March, rising from 17.33% in February. Food inflation currently stands at 22.95%. The macro environment looks particularly gloomy for the average man with rising inflation eroding purchasing power.

READ: Nigeria’s inflation rate rises to 17.33% in February 2021, highest in four years

What we find the most significant is how this will affect investors. With inflation heading towards 20%, it is going to be increasingly difficult for fund managers and investors to earn decent returns on their investments. A few weeks back,  it was stated that the CBN had no real concern with inflation because it was caused by other related factors. We believe it is the right time for the Central Bank to step in by raising interest rates and mopping the excess liquidity in the economy.

The Central Bank last week announced that it was including wheat and sugar on the foreign exchange restriction list. Recall that the CBN had listed 41 items placed on the FX restriction list in 2015, then added maize to the list in 2020.

With existing players like Dangote Sugar, the CBN believes that Nigeria has enough or should have enough capacity to meet local demand.

READ: Biden tax opportunity for Nigeria

Fixed Income

Last week, The Debt Management Office (DMO) announced the offer of N150 billion bonds for subscription by auction in the month of April on behalf of the Federal Government. We reported two weeks ago that bond prices were falling as the yield was rising. As at April, 15th, the S&P FMDQ Nigerian Sovereign Bond Index was -22.07% YTD.

Nigerian investors can still capitalize on decent yields in the bond market. The total subscription received from investors for the bonds was N333.48bn comprising N65.25bn for 16.2884% FGN March 2027 bonds; N110.19bn for 12.5% FGN March 2035 bonds; and N158.04bn for 9.8% FGN July 2045 bonds.

Cryptocurrency and volatility

The cryptocurrency market had a bullish week till yesterday when sell-offs in the market ensured that coins like Ethereum dropped by about 21.46%. Olumide Adesina, a market analyst and cryptocurrency expert, called it a “bloody Sunday.” In a Twitter Spaces conversation with Ugodre Obi-Chukwu on Saturday, he discussed how the market was overheating and the bullish run was unsustainable. Despite the losses yesterday, there is still a lot of upside on cryptocurrencies and many experts remain bullish long-term.

For whoever is willing to invest in this asset class, the rule of thumb is to only invest money you can part with and do your research.

READ: Cryptocurrency: FG should set up presidential commission on cryptocurrency – ACCI

Other related news:

FG lifts suspension of issuance of new sim cards

The FG lifted its ban on new sim cards for telco players last week. This had previously been halted by the Federal Ministry of Communications and Digital Economy last December. Without a doubt, this is good news for stakeholders in the industry as analysts had predicted that the ban would affect the growth of the sector.

From the government’s perspective, it begs the question,  what was the need to issue a ban on new sim cards in the first place?

Jaiz bank

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