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Debt Servicing: Nigeria pays $1.12 billion to World Bank, others in 10-month 

Nigeria’s public debt stock rose to N25.7 trillion in June 2019 and the payment for servicing the debt continues to be a major source of concern.

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Recession, 2020 revised budget, spending inefficiencies, and a looming debt hole  , President Muhammadu Buhari, loans, Oil price, FG, Solar vehicles, P&ID firm, Nigeria's GDP, Debt Servicing: Nigeria pays $1.12 billion to World Bank, others in 10-month , How the latest Fitch report affects you in 2020 , Nigeria’s credit rating faces downgrade by Fitch, Nigeria’s fiscal crisis looms, oil hits $32, S&P downgrades Nigeria to junk rating, as India cuts interest rates

Nigeria’s public debt stock rose to N25.7 trillion in June 2019. Consequently, the payment for servicing the debt has continued to be a major source of concern.

Reports from the website of the Central Bank of Nigeria confirmed that Nigeria spent a whopping $1.12 billion as external debt service payment between January and October 2019 (10-month).

Debt and its attendant cost

Nigeria’s total debt stock constitutes both external and domestic debts. According to the latest DMO report for June 2019, the country’s total external debt rose to N8.32 trillion ($27.1 billion), representing about 32.38% of the total debt stock while the domestic debt constitutes 67.68%.

  • The breakdown of the total external debt showed that the Federal Government accounted for the biggest external debt stock in the country.
  • As at June 2019, out of the N8.32 trillion external debt, the Federal Government accounted for 7.01 trillion while states and FCT accounted for only N1.30 trillion. This means the Federal Government accounts for 84% of Nigeria’s total external debt.
  • While Nigeria’s debt stock rose to a new height in the second quarter of 2019, the cost of servicing debt jumped by $1.12 billion (2019, YTD).
  • Experts have stated that while the country’s debt to GDP ratio may be sustainable in the meantime, the cost of servicing the debt eats deep into the country’s already depleting revenue.
  • Nigeria pays a lump sum to the several external organizations which grant loans to the country, and these include World Bank, African Development Bank, Exim Bank of China, Exim Bank of India and so on. Data from the Debt Management Office (DMO) shows that Nigeria paid over $60 million to the World Bank.

IMF discloses immediate priority , Reduce funding oil subsidy - IMF to Nigeria , IMF: 40% of African countries can't pay back their debts 

Meanwhile, IMF passes vote of confidence on Nigeria’s debt

In a recent report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that though Nigeria’s debt to gross domestic product ratio has increased to 28%, it remains lower than the average ratio recorded in sub-Saharan Africa.

Meanwhile, the United Nations specialized agency has disclosed that 40% of African countries are in a position where they can’t afford to pay back their debts.

According to the Managing Director of IMF, Kristanlina Georgieva, while the IMF is optimistic about some of its investments in Africa, it is also concerned about the debt stress levels on the continent.

 “Are we worried about debt levels in Africa? Yes, because 40% of the countries have gone into debt distress levels. In some cases, we are concerned about that but in other cases, we see that investment is going to pay off over time.

[READ MORE: Debt servicing gulps N7.04 trillion under President Buhari’s administration]

“Take the case of Kenya, we advise Kenya to be more cautious in building debt but we have seen good macroeconomic policy in Kenya.

“In cases where debt is dangerous like Zambia, we do say you need to get a handle on your debt. In Ethiopia, we say you need to renegotiate some of your debts because it is non-concessional for things that should be on a concessional basis.”

Nigeria’s debt stock is expected to rise further as the country still faces a huge fiscal revenue quagmire ahead of the implementation of the 2020 budget.

[READ ALSO: High debt servicing cost remains a sore thumb]

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It is in this context that the Federal Government continues to intensify efforts to drive revenue. Some of the policies introduced by the government include increasing target for revenue-generating agencies, raising VAT by 50%, and reviews of various tax laws which are all included in the 2019 Finance Bill.

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3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. Dhananjaya

    December 3, 2019 at 6:50 pm

    I require loan

  2. Olayinka

    December 3, 2019 at 9:50 pm

    The government did not raise tax by 50%, please edit your article.

    • theanalyst

      December 4, 2019 at 5:21 am

      Following the passage of Finance Bill, VAT has been raised by 50% from 5% to 7.5% and it would take effect on Jan 2, 2020.

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Blurb

CBN “Naira 4 Dollar Scheme” Explained

What the CBN’s Naira 4 Dollar scheme means for your money.

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CBN

In what appears to be an attempt to incentivize dollar remittances by all means possible, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) released a circular to Deposit Money Banks (DMBs), International Money Transfer Operators (IMTO), and the General Public, advising that remittances paid into a bank account will attract an additional credit alert for every USD$1 received!

Yes, you read that correctly. The CBN will facilitate a special additional credit alert of N5 for every USD$1 received. In other words,

  • if someone sends you $10,000, you get an additional special credit alert for N50,000.
  • If someone sends you $100,000, you get an additional special credit alert for N500,000.

Who is eligible?

To be eligible, the diaspora remittances need to be processed and received from one of the registered IMTOs and funds received into a Bank account operated by the DMBs. (So, if you are receiving funds via Crypto sorry you are not eligible).

Additionally, the circular says this “incentive runs from Monday 8th March 2021 to Saturday 8th May 2021″. So, if you have plans to receive dollars, you can plan accordingly.

The circular is not clear how exactly the commercial banks will know which account to pay the extra special credits into. Although, that may be a question diaspora funds recipients will need to ask their DMB accounts officers to clarify for them.

How will this be funded?

The circular notes that the “CBN shall through commercial banks, pay to recipients the N5 incentive for every USD$1”. In other words, it is the CBN funding the cost of this special extra credit.

  • One would argue that given the costs of alternative incentives to attract dollars such as the special OMO window for FPI, this may be a cheaper alternative for the CBN.
  • But we will need to see the volume of expected remittance to be certain of that. Nigeria attracts about $5billion per quarter in remittances and only trails oil in terms of foreign earnings.

Why this matter to Nigerians?

Following the collapse of US Dollar inflows into the country, the CBN initially tried to balance its current account deficits and avoid an official devaluation by tackling FOREX demand (Think ban of 41 items, etc).

Finally, this short-term Naira-4-Dollar scheme will not be called an official Naira Devaluation. But a question is what do we call the new short-term price of N412.50 + N5.00? Maybe we can call it Naira Modulation.

 

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Blurb

Nigerian Breweries leveraging, but stacking cash through rising input costs

The marathon continues for Nigerian Breweries with its 2020 financials.

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Humanity might need more booze to survive the increasingly daunting intricacies of life, but Nigerian Breweries 2020 financial statement is proof that even the best can get caught up in the reality of changing business lifecycles.

Nigerian Breweries Plc had floored the market providing both alcoholic and non-alcoholic premium quality beverages across the nation. But with brands like Star lager beer launched as far back as 1949, Gulder lager beer launched in 1970, and even the family-friendly Maltina introduced as far back as 1976, it is only natural that both the old and new generation competition gives them a run for their market share.

Much like other old money companies, Nigerian Breweries has done its bit to remain relevant in the industry from creating new variants of existing favoured brands to paying dividends consistently annually for the past few years. Yet within the same period, the company’s financial statements have been a testament to its streamlined market share and reducing profits. The marathon continues with its 2020 financials. The industry giant may as well be setting itself up for a debt quagmire peradventure its projections do not match the true reality of events.

READ: How COVID-19 has changed Nigeria’s consumer goods & industrial markets –KPMG

2020 financials: A tale of higher costs & larger debts

2020’s unfavourable financial/ business environment led to the increase in the prices of raw materials and disruptions in logistics for many Nigerian-domiciled businesses including Nigerian Breweries. Raw materials and consumables witnessed a 17% increase despite the marginal growth in revenue.

While the group’s 2020 results revealed a 4.35% increase in revenue from N323 billion in the prior year to around N337 billion, these gains were curtailed by a higher-than-par increase in cost of sales which had risen by 13.9%, from the N191.8 billion expended in 2019 to N218.4 billion as its 2020 financials reveal and interest rates going way up.

READ: Flour Mills and its diverse challenges

The company’s lower operating expenses were not enough to salvage the disruption caused by the raging interest expense following increased charges paid on bank loans and overdraft facilities as well as the significant increase in overall debt. Between 2019 and 2020 alone, long term loans and borrowings increased by 974% from N4.8 billion to as much as N51.8 billion. Even trade and other long term payables increased by 35%.

In its financials, the company noted that it has revolving credit facilities with five Nigerian banks to finance its working capital. The approved limit of the loan with each of the banks range from ₦6 billion to ₦15 billion (total of ₦66 billion) and each of the agreements had been signed in 2016 with a tenor of five years. The Company had also obtained Capital and Working capital finance from the BoI in 2019.

READ: Manufacturing sector in Nigeria and the reality of a “new normal”

It is no news that the company is involved in diversified lease arrangements. Following reclassifications made in 2019 to some of its lease assets, the 2020 asset base also witnessed significant increase in Right of Use Assets which increased by 288%% from N11.1 billion to N42.9 billion. Yet, the fact that in one year, interest expense on Lease Liabilities rose from N19.7 million in 2019 and to a whopping N4.171 billion shows that the company is taking way more debt than its books require.

But what’s it using all the cash for?

Beyond rising material costs, borrowing costs have been huge and the annual interest payment by virtue of these loans make the possibility of higher profits for the company a mirage. That said, the overall increase in total liabilities might not have been such a bad idea if the funds were being used to increase revenue and profits. But having a huge chunk of all that money in cash creates a different kind of challenge. Cash and bank values in its statement of financial position significantly increased by 377% from N6.4 billion in 2019 to N30.4 billion in 2020.

Is the cash being held to mitigate possible challenges of the volatile economy or are they being used to pay dividends? Even at a share price of N52 per share, the company’s price-to-book value sits at 2.5816, testament of its dire overvaluation. Consequently, there is an ardent need for the company to come up with newer ways to attract the wider market and keep its book in the green with a little less external funding.

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