As parts of the world restart economic activities, it is becoming clear that the worst plunge in modern history would need a vaccine or cure before things can revert to normal.

In response to the exogenous shock that is the Covid-19 pandemic, leaders, researchers, analysts, and experts have sought methods, options, – anything to reduce the negative impact of what many now regard as the worst slump since the 1930s. So far, different parts of the world have put systems and structures in place to allow a level of economic activity to continue as it became increasingly clear that full social welfare was simply unsustainable. This is, however, not without the existence of relevant restrictions like temperature checks, social distancing rules, and the latest fashion accessories – masks and gloves.

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While this is an admittedly better development than the enforced total lockdown – at least for the economy, this too has its limitations. Economic activities have taken on a sluggish growth pace and while production might continue, global demand remains hamstrung. Industries like tourism and travel with social distancing rules in place will only scramble for the little they can get. Sports stadiums, entertainment hot-spots, etc., will remain closed. Even with the increased dependence of delivery services, restaurants will struggle to make what they used to before. Jobs have been cut and even more will. In essence, the partial reopening of the economy isn’t also sustainable. Yet, it is impossible to ignore the virus itself especially given the risks of a resurgence of the virus in already treated patients and the increasing cases in many parts of the world.

Data obtained from Bloomberg revealed that people infected around the world reached 5 million with a death toll of over 330,000. With the pandemic still on our tails, finding a vaccine is our best bet – and nothing else might be able to beat that. Stephen Jen, CEO of Eurizon SLJ Capital – hedge fund and advisory firm in London told Bloomberg News that there’s some sort of bounty on the virus globally.

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In his words, “I don’t see how it is wiser for investors to bet on the virus than to bet on science, technology, and unlimited political and financial capital in the world to contain and defeat the virus.”

Also, the shares of American drug maker based in Massachusetts, Moderna Inc., hit a record high early in the week, as a result of its early data from a small trial of the company’s Covid-19 vaccine. It, however, gave up some of those gains days after stock traders scrutinized the early nature of the vaccine data.

Bloomberg Economics predicts that the restriction and shutdown of businesses triggered a plunge in economic activities of about 30% and their findings found that the first steps to relax controls will have a good impact on activity than later ones. Yet, our optimism is palpable. Anita Zaidi, Director of Vaccine Development and Surveillance at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation have advised that the process of creating an effective immunity could take years, and even then it will have to solve the issue of logistics that is making the vaccine readily available globally.

Today, the world waits in hope that this too passes like many of its predecessors. While it will indeed pass, there still is no saying how long it will take before life reverts to a new but sustainable normal.

The spread of novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) in Nigeria has continued to rise rapidly as the latest statistics provided by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control revealed Nigeria now has 7,526 confirmed cases.

On the 23rd of May 2020, 265 new confirmed cases were recorded in Nigeria

To date, 7526 cases have been confirmed, 2174 cases have been discharged and 221 deaths have been recorded in 34 states and the Federal Capital Territory having carried out 43,328 tests.

The 265 new cases were reported from 13 states- Lagos (133), Oyo (34), Edo (28), Ogun (23), FCT (22), Plateau (6), Kaduna (5), Borno (3), Niger (3), Kwara (2), Bauchi (2), Anambra (2), Enugu (2).

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In a move to combat the spread of the pandemic disease, President Muhammadu Buhari directed the cessation of all movements in Lagos and the FCT for an initial period of 14 days, which took effect from 11 pm on Monday, 30th March 2020.

The movement restriction, which was extended by another two-weeks period, has been partially put on hold with some businesses commencing operations from May 4.

The latest numbers bring Lagos state total confirmed cases to 3357, followed by Kano (883), Abuja at 469, Katsina (308), Borno (250), Jigawa (241), Oyo (233), Bauchi (232), Ogun (219),  Kaduna (184), Edo (172), Gombe (145),  Sokoto (116), Rivers (89), Plateau (77),  Zamfara (76).

Kwara State has recorded 75 cases, Yobe (47), Osun (42),  Nasarawa (38), Kebbi (32),  Delta (31), Adamawa (27), Niger (26), Ondo (23), Ebonyi (22), Akwa Ibom (21), Ekiti (20), Taraba and Enugu (18), Bayelsa and Anambra (8), Imo and Abia (7), while Benue state has recorded 5 cases.

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The latest Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics, revealed that 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, generated a sum of N1.33 trillion in 2019, a 14.1% increase compared to N1.17 trillion generated in 2018.

According to the report, 83.4% (N1.11 trillion) of the generated revenue was in form of taxes, while 16.6% (221.56 billion) was from MDAs’ revenue.

The report showed that 33 states, including Abuja, recorded positive growth in revenue, while 4 states generated less in 2019 compared to 2018.

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  Breakdown

• Lagos state maintains its position as the commercial hub of Nigeria as it contributed 29.9% (N398.73 billion) to the total states’ IGR.
• Rivers state followed, having generated a sum of N140.4 billion, thereby contributing 10.5% to the total revenue generated.
• The Federal Capital Territory ranked third as it generated N74.56 billion (5.6%) internally.
• Other states with the biggest IGR for 2019 include Ogun (N70.9 billion), Delta (N64.7 billion), Kaduna (N44.9 billion), Kano (N40.6 billion) as well as Akwa Ibom. Enugu and Kwara states followed with N32.3 billion, N31.1 billion and N30.6 billion respectively.

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Yobe, Zamfara, Osun, others record highest growth in IGR

While Lagos and Rivers states dwarfed others in revenue generation, Yobe, Zamfara, and Osun states recorded the highest positive growth in IGR for the year ended 2019.

• Yobe state recorded the highest rise in IGR between 2018 and 2019 as the revenue grew by 92.7% from N4.38 billion to N8.44 billion.
• Zamfara and Osun states followed with respective growths of 87.85% and 72.64%. Specifically, Zamfara state grew its revenue from N8.2 billion to N15.4 billion, while Osun IGR rose from 10.4 billion in 2018 to N17.9 billion in 2019.
• Other states that significantly grew their IGR include Benue, Adamawa and Kaduna, having grown their revenue by 59.2%, 56.4%, and 52.7% respectively.

Revenue drought amidst COVID-19 pandemic

As the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria continue to increase by the day, having spread across 34 states of the federation, and forcing a partial shutdown of the economy, the country faces a possible recession in 2020.

Recall that IMF earlier predicted that Nigeria’s economy would slide by 3.4% in 2020 and the Finance Minister recently admitted that the crash in crude prices would negatively affect the country’s revenue and foreign exchange earnings.

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The internally generated revenue serves a major source of revenue for most states, but with the decline in economic activities during the pandemic, there is a major concern as to how most states will be able to manage their affairs.

Meanwhile, many states and local governments depend on monthly statutory allocations from the central vault to carry out their businesses, and as the country’s revenue is expected to decline, the FAAC allocations to states will also reduce.

The big question is how will the states fare amidst COVID-19 pandemic.