World Bank warns energy costs could drive food prices 7% higher in 2027

Global food commodity prices are projected to rise by 7% in 2027, following an expected 10% increase in 2026, as higher energy costs, weather-related supply pressures and disruptions to exports drive prices upward.

The projection was contained in the World Bank Group’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook, which also expects grain prices to rise by 9% in 2027.

Although favourable harvests in some regions could help limit global price increases, weather-related disruptions may trigger sharper price spikes in specific locations.

Energy costs and weather drive food prices

The World Bank attributed the projected increase in food commodity prices partly to the early effects of El Niño on tropical commodity supplies. However, it said higher energy prices and disruptions to food exports through the Black Sea, following attacks on maritime infrastructure, would have a greater impact.

The report noted that global weather patterns could affect agricultural production differently across regions, with some areas recording improved harvests while others experience lower output.

Global grain output is expected to decline somewhat in 2026.

Despite this decline, total grain supplies in the 2026–2027 season are projected to be 3% higher than in 2024–2025.

• Strong harvests of key crops are expected to help contain overall food commodity price increases.
• The World Bank warned that relatively moderate global price movements could still coincide with sharp increases in individual markets affected by El Niño.

The projections suggest that while global supplies may cushion some of the pressure, consumers in areas facing adverse weather or supply disruptions could experience more significant price increases.

Beverage prices expected to decline

Unlike food commodities, beverage prices are expected to fall by 24% in 2026 as cocoa and coffee production recovers from previous disease- and weather-related setbacks.

• The World Bank expects beverage prices to stabilise broadly in 2027, as falling coffee prices partly offset rising cocoa prices. Its agricultural commodity price index, which combines food, beverages and raw materials, is projected to increase slightly in 2026 before rising by 5% in 2027.

The outlook therefore points to differing price trends across agricultural commodities, with food and grain prices expected to increase while the recovery in beverage production eases some of the pressure on that category.

Nigeria’s inflation continues to ease

In Nigeria, headline inflation eased to 14.63% in September 2026, down from 15.39% in August, marking another monthly decline.

• Food inflation stood at 19.59% year-on-year in September 2026, compared with 20.16% in September 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
• The global food commodity outlook comes as energy markets also face expected price adjustments. Nairametrics previously reported that the World Bank projected Brent crude oil prices to average $79 per barrel in 2027, down from $91 per barrel in 2026, as rising global supplies are expected to ease market tightness.

The World Bank’s latest projections highlight the potential for food prices to remain under pressure globally in 2027, even as some agricultural commodities benefit from improved production and energy markets adjust.