World Bank projects Brent oil prices to fall to $79 per barrel in 2027

The World Bank projects Brent crude oil prices to decline to an average of $79 per barrel in 2027, down from $91 per barrel in 2026, as rising global supplies are expected to ease market tightness.

In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, the lender said Brent prices could average almost $100 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, amid continued Middle East supply disruptions, tanker shortages and attacks on vessels.

However, the World Bank expects recent increases in crude shipments from the Gulf to be sustained, allowing global oil production to approach its 2025 level in 2027 and putting downward pressure on prices.

World Bank revises energy price forecasts

The World Bank expects global energy prices to rise by 32% year-on-year in 2026 before declining by 12% in 2027. Compared with its April forecasts, it revised its energy price projections upward by 7% for 2026 and 14% for 2027, reflecting supply disruptions that are expected to last longer but be less intense than previously anticipated.

• “Rising crude supplies are expected to ease market tightness, supporting a decline in prices to an average of $79/bbl next year,” the lender noted.

The lender said the global oil market would remain in deficit in the fourth quarter of 2026, supporting higher prices before increased production eases supply constraints next year.

• It also expects global oil consumption to weaken significantly in 2026.
• Global oil consumption is projected to contract by 2.6 million barrels per day (mb/d), or 2.5%, in 2026.
• The projected decline would be the third-largest on record, after the contractions recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the oil market turmoil of 1980.

The expected reduction in consumption, combined with a recovery in crude production, forms part of the outlook for lower oil prices in 2027.

Middle East tensions drive oil volatility

The revised forecast comes amid continued uncertainty over global energy supplies, with geopolitical tensions involving the United States and Iran contributing to fluctuations in crude prices.

• Global oil prices fell on Monday, October 26, 2026, after reaching near six-month highs, as hopes of reduced hostilities between Washington and Tehran eased concerns about potential supply disruptions.
• The decline followed a sharp rally reported by Nairametrics on October 22, when crude benchmarks climbed above $111 per barrel amid fresh concerns about disruptions to energy supplies.
• Earlier, the World Bank had warned that global oil markets could face a major supply shock in 2026, with output projected to fall sharply in the second quarter, as previously reported by Nairametrics.
• The latest outlook suggests that prices could remain elevated in the near term before easing as production recovers and supply conditions improve.

However, the projected decline to $79 per barrel in 2027 will depend partly on the durability of crude shipments from the Gulf and whether global production recovers as anticipated.