Nigeria’s agriculture trade swings from N740 billion surplus to N56 billion deficit in H1 2026

Nigeria’s agricultural trade balance swung from a N740.27 billion surplus in the first half of 2025 to a N56.13 billion deficit in H1 2026, as exports declined sharply while imports remained relatively high.

An analysis by Nairametrics of the Q1 and Q2 2026 Foreign Trade Statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that agricultural exports fell to N1.98 trillion in H1 2026 from N2.96 trillion in the corresponding period of 2025.

The reversal was driven by a sharper decline in exports than imports, with the second quarter accounting for the bulk of the deterioration.

The figures also highlight the continued importance of agricultural commodities to Nigeria’s trade and employment base.

Agricultural trade returns to deficit

Nigeria’s agricultural exports declined by 33.3% year-on-year to N1.98 trillion in H1 2026, compared with N2.96 trillion in the same period of 2025. Agricultural imports also declined, but by a smaller 8.5%, falling from N2.22 trillion to N2.03 trillion.

• Agricultural exports stood at N802.99 billion in Q2 2026, down from N1.26 trillion in Q2 2025.
• Agricultural imports rose to N1.20 trillion in Q2 2026 from N1.18 trillion a year earlier.
• The Q2 figures produced a N400.78 billion deficit, compared with a surplus of about N71.94 billion in Q2 2025.
• The Q2 deficit more than offset the N344.65 billion surplus recorded in Q1 2026, when exports stood at N1.17 trillion against imports of N827.72 billion.

The H1 reversal therefore reflects the sharp contraction in agricultural export earnings during the period, particularly in the second quarter.

Q2 drives agricultural trade reversal

Despite the overall decline, several agricultural commodities continued to record substantial export values during Q2 2026, led by cocoa and sesame.

• Standard quality cocoa beans generated N154.31 billion, while sesame seeds accounted for N96.03 billion.
• Superior quality cocoa beans were valued at N58.82 billion, while soya beans excluding seeds contributed N50.22 billion.
• Soya bean flours and meals recorded N36.41 billion, while cut flowers and flower buds were valued at N31.43 billion.
• Natural cocoa butter and crude shea oil recorded N27.60 billion and N12.66 billion, respectively.

The figures show that cocoa, sesame, soya and other agricultural commodities remained significant contributors to Nigeria’s non-oil exports despite the overall decline in agricultural trade earnings.

Agriculture remains key to employment

Agriculture also remains one of Nigeria’s largest sources of employment, with NBS data showing that 25.34 million people were actively employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing activities in 2023.

The sector accounted for 30.1% of Nigeria’s total workforce during the period.

Agriculture employed more people than wholesale and retail trade, which accounted for 23.13 million workers or 27.5% of the workforce.

The latest trade figures underscore the challenge of converting Nigeria’s sizeable agricultural production and employment base into sustained export earnings and a stronger agricultural trade balance.