Refined fuel exports jump 66%, lifting current account surplus to $7.5 billion

Refined petroleum product exports rose by 66.24% in the second quarter of 2026, helping to push Nigeria’s current account surplus to $7.54 billion.

Data analysed by Nairametrics Research, culled from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Balance of Payments highlights for Q2 2026, showed that earnings from crude oil, gas, and refined petroleum products rose to $16.96 billion during the quarter.

This compares with $13.07 billion in Q1 2026 and $12.55 billion in Q2 2025, representing a 29.76% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 35.14% year-on-year rise. The stronger hydrocarbon exports, combined with lower petroleum imports, improved Nigeria’s trade balance and supported foreign exchange earnings during the period.

Petroleum exports lift surplus

According to the CBN data, total exports under the goods account increased to $20.08 billion in Q2 2026. This represents a 29.1% increase from $15.56 billion in Q1 2026 and a 34.8% rise from $14.90 billion in Q2 2025.

The strongest contribution came from crude oil, gas, and refined petroleum products, which generated $16.96 billion during the quarter.

• This represents a quarterly increase of 29.8% from $13.07 billion recorded in Q1 2026 and a 35.1% year-on-year increase from $12.55 billion in Q2 2025.
• The hydrocarbon sector accounted for about 84.5% of total goods exports during the quarter, underscoring the continued dominance of oil and gas in Nigeria’s export structure.
• Petroleum-related imports declined to $1.24 billion in Q2 2026 from $1.75 billion in Q1 2026 and $3.36 billion in Q2 2025.

This translates to a 29.1% decline quarter-on-quarter and a 63.1% decrease year-on-year.

The combination of rising petroleum-related exports and lower imports meant Nigeria generated a net $15.72 billion from the three petroleum categories in Q2 2026, strengthening the goods account surplus to $10.12 billion from $5.96 billion in Q1 2026.

Crude oil exports rebound

Crude oil exports remained the largest contributor within the petroleum export basket during the quarter. Export earnings from crude oil increased to $9.39 billion in Q2 2026, up from $8.11 billion in Q1 2026, representing a 15.78% quarter-on-quarter increase.

• Compared with the $7.66 billion recorded in Q2 2025, crude oil export earnings were higher by 22.58%.
• Crude oil contributed about 55.4% of the combined $16.96 billion earned from crude oil, gas, and refined petroleum products during the quarter.
• The increase suggests that improvements in production levels, reduced pipeline disruptions, and relatively stable global demand supported export receipts.
• The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission reported that crude oil production reached 1.56 million barrels per day in June 2026, excluding condensates, its highest level since April 2020.

NUPRC also reported that 53.7 million barrels of crude oil and condensate were supplied to local refiners between April and June 2026, representing a Q2 performance of 97.4% under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation framework.

Nigeria also imported considerably less crude oil during the quarter, as crude oil imports fell to $580 million in Q2 2026 from $1.39 billion in Q1 2026, representing a 58.27% decline.

Gas exports recover strongly

Natural gas also contributed significantly to the increase in petroleum export earnings. Gas export earnings rose to $3.63 billion in Q2 2026 from $2.59 billion in the preceding quarter, representing a 40.2% quarter-on-quarter increase.

• On a year-on-year basis, gas export earnings increased by 9.67% from $3.31 billion in Q2 2025.
• Gas accounted for about 21.4% of the combined crude oil, gas, and refined petroleum products export earnings in Q2 2026.
• The quarterly increase was notable because gas earnings had declined from $3.31 billion in Q2 2025 to $2.59 billion in Q1 2026 before recovering in the second quarter.
• The fifth edition of the PENGASSAN Energy and Labour Summit, PEALS 2026, revealed that the Federal Government had unveiled plans to unlock Nigeria’s more than 215 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves for industrial development.

The improvement reflects stronger international demand for liquefied natural gas, as well as Nigeria’s ongoing efforts to monetise its vast gas reserves.

Refined products reshape trade

The most notable development in the quarter was the sharp rise in refined petroleum product exports. Earnings from refined petroleum product exports climbed to $3.94 billion in Q2 2026, compared with $2.37 billion in Q1 2026, representing an increase of 66.24%.

• Compared with the $1.59 billion recorded in Q2 2025, refined petroleum product exports increased by roughly 148%.
• Refined petroleum product exports accounted for about 23.2% of the combined $16.96 billion petroleum export earnings in Q2 2026.
• Refined petroleum product imports stood at $0.66 billion in Q2 2026, higher than $0.36 billion recorded in Q1 2026 but significantly lower than $2.32 billion posted in Q2 2025.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that Nigeria’s petroleum product exports rose from an average of 46,000 barrels per day in 2023 to 146,000 barrels per day in 2024.

The EIA also reported that petroleum product imports averaged about 376,000 barrels per day between 2020 and 2024.

For years, Nigeria exported crude oil while spending billions of dollars importing refined petroleum products for domestic consumption. The Q2 2026 data show a shift in the petroleum trade structure, driven by rising domestic refining activity, particularly from the Dangote refinery, higher refined product exports, and reduced dependence on imported petroleum products.