Nigeria has 36.3 million people facing severe food insecurity – AGRA

Nigeria has 36.3 million people facing Crisis or worse food insecurity, the highest number among the 17 African countries monitored in August 2026, according to the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA).

The figure was contained in the August 2026 edition of AGRA’s Food Security Monitor.

The report said the affected population represents 16.7% of Nigeria’s population, with conflict, insecurity, displacement, high food prices and weather-related production challenges continuing to affect food access.

What the report is saying

AGRA’s Food Security Monitor tracks people experiencing IPC/CH Phase 3+ or equivalent food insecurity across selected countries in East, Southern and West Africa. Nigeria recorded the largest affected population in August.

• “Based on the August 2026 IPC/CH Phase 3+ estimates (Table 1), the overall pattern of severe food insecurity remains broadly stable across the countries assessed, with most countries recording no change compared to July 2026.”
• “Nigeria continues to have by far the largest number of people facing Crisis or worse food insecurity, with 36.3 million people, significantly exceeding all other countries,” the report read in part.
• South Sudan followed with 7.8 million people, Kenya with 4.1 million, Mozambique with 3.5 million, Zimbabwe with 2.5 million and Niger with 2.4 million.

In proportional terms, however, South Sudan had the highest level of food insecurity at 55% of its population, compared with 16.7% in Nigeria.

Food insecurity remains a regional concern

Food insecurity conditions were broadly stable across most countries compared with July, although some recorded improvements. Malawi recorded a 52% reduction in people facing IPC/CH Phase 3+ conditions, while Zambia recorded a 59% reduction.

• Uganda had 24% of its population facing Crisis or worse food insecurity, while Kenya and Malawi each recorded 22%.
• Mozambique recorded 18%, Zambia 17%, Nigeria 16.7% and Zimbabwe 16%.
• Ghana had the lowest proportion at 4%, while Côte d’Ivoire, Tanzania and Togo each recorded 5%.
• In West Africa, conflict, insecurity, displacement, high food prices and weather-related production challenges remained major drivers.

Emergency-level conditions persisted in parts of Mali, Niger and Nigeria, while Crisis-level conditions remained widespread in conflict-affected areas of Burkina Faso, northern Nigeria, Niger and parts of Mali.

Nigeria’s maize prices show mixed trend

Nigeria’s food insecurity situation comes despite maize prices remaining lower than a year earlier. AGRA reported that maize prices increased 19.3% over the last six months but remained 10.9% lower year-on-year.

• Maize prices increased 7% in August to about $265 per metric tonne.
• The price was among the lowest recorded across markets monitored by the report.
• Supply conditions, purchasing power, conflict and weather shocks continue to influence food access.

The report noted that improved rainfall and seasonal harvests could support food availability, although displacement, trade disruptions and high food and transport costs remain challenges.

Get up to speed

The latest figures follow earlier warnings about rising production costs, insecurity and food prices. In November 2025, Nairametrics reported that farmers in North-Central and North-West Nigeria were struggling with rising input costs, insecurity and post-harvest losses.

• Farmers in Niger, Nasarawa, Kogi and Kaduna states cited higher costs of fertiliser, fuel and labour, with some warning that continued losses could force them to abandon farming.
• The FAO warned in October 2025 that about 34.7 million Nigerians could face severe food insecurity during the June-August 2026 lean season, citing conflict, economic shocks and organised crime.
• Nairametrics reported in August 2026 that 25 of 61 food and household items surveyed across major Lagos markets recorded price declines in July, while 23 increased and 13 remained unchanged.

A big bag of onions rose 40% to N105,000, while ogbono increased 35.5% to N420,000, showing that price pressures remained uneven.

What you should know

Nairametrics reported in January 2026 that Nigeria was projected to have 34.7 million people at risk of acute food insecurity in 2026, according to PwC’s Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026.

PwC attributed the projected deterioration to insecurity, rising agricultural input costs and climate shocks.

• NPK fertiliser prices rose 19.5% in 2025.
• Maize production costs increased by 29.2%, while soybean production costs rose by 36.8%.
• AGRA’s latest estimate puts the number facing Crisis or worse food insecurity at 36.3 million, above PwC’s earlier projection.
• The FAO had also projected that about 34.7 million Nigerians could face severe food insecurity during the June-August 2026 lean season.

The latest figures highlight the continued pressure on food access despite some improvements in food prices and supply conditions.