SBM warns Plateau reprisal attacks could escalate into high-intensity conflict

SB Morgen Intelligence (SBMI) has warned that continued reprisal attacks between armed Fulani and Berom/Mwaghavul groups in Plateau State could push the conflict into a high-intensity phase, particularly in Mangu Local Government Area.

The warning was contained in the SBM Intel Security Report, which tracked violent incidents and security developments across Nigeria from August 14 to 20, 2026.

SBMI said the violence is part of a cycle of retaliatory attacks that has persisted at low to medium intensity since late 2025, with recent incidents raising the risk of further escalation.

What the report is saying

SBMI identified Mangu and Barkin Ladi LGAs as highly volatile following a series of attacks involving Fulani herders and local farming communities. It said the attack on Bin-Per community in Kombun District, Mangu, where at least 23 people were reportedly killed, was most likely a reprisal for an earlier attack on herders and their cattle in Naben village.

• “The clashes in Plateau State continues the cycle of reprisal attacks that have been going on in low-mid intensity since late 2025 and is now in the running for a high intensity phase in at least Mangu,” the report said.

According to SBMI, the killing of two herders in Naben likely triggered the larger reprisal, demonstrating how individual attacks can quickly escalate into mass violence. It said Bin-Per was likely targeted because it is a farming settlement in an area with a history of clashes between Mwaghavul and Fulani communities.

The report also linked the killing of a young woman in Gana Ropp, Barkin Ladi, to the broader pattern of persistent violence, while warning that criminal groups could exploit the unrest to loot and kill. SBMI said the violence reflects a breakdown of trust between communities and weaknesses in preventing attacks and reprisals.

More details

SBMI said growing military pressure on Boko Haram and ISWAP in the North East is restricting their access to bases and supply lines, pushing them towards opportunistic raids on rural communities. It cited the attack on Dhang community in Hong LGA, Adamawa State, where suspected Boko Haram fighters reportedly killed at least five people, including a police inspector.

• The targeting of pharmacies, food vendors and agricultural chemical stores suggests the attackers were seeking food, medicine and other supplies rather than attempting to seize territory.
• SBMI expects more low-intensity hit-and-run attacks in northern Adamawa over the next month, particularly in Hong, Madagali and Michika LGAs.
• In the North West, the killing of at least 38 Lakurawa fighters in Gummi LGA, Zamfara State, could temporarily weaken the group as surviving members regroup.

The setback could push remaining Lakurawa fighters towards softer targets and income-generating activities such as cattle rustling and looting.

SBMI linked Lakurawa’s activities in Zamfara to attacks in Tambuwal LGA, Sokoto State, where fighters reportedly killed two people, led Friday prayers and stole cattle. It warned of further attacks in Kaya and Tambuwal if security pressure eases, while recent attacks on security personnel could increase the likelihood of direct clashes between Lakurawa and the military.

What you should know

The assessment comes as the Federal Government moves to strengthen national security planning. President Bola Tinubu recently directed a nine-member committee of senior military and intelligence officials to produce a comprehensive National Threat Assessment and a rolling five-year Strategic Defence Operations Plan within 90 days.

• The committee, coordinated by the Special Adviser on Homeland Security, Major General Adeyinka Famadewa, is expected to identify Nigeria’s principal security threats, assess their urgency and establish operational priorities.
• Tinubu said the absence of a common national threat assessment and medium-term operational plan had made coordination more difficult and limited the efficient use of security resources.

The framework is expected to establish a common understanding of the country’s security threats, the objectives to be achieved and the capabilities required to address them.

Once approved, the Strategic Defence Operations Plan will guide a corresponding multi-year defence spending and procurement plan.

• In Plateau State, SBMI said the relocation of a military tactical headquarters to Mangu and the launch of Operation Hard Nut could deter large-scale attacks in the short term, but may not address the grievances driving the conflict.

The report warned that armed groups could shift towards softer targets, with Kombun District and villages around Gana Ropp identified as areas at risk of further attacks.