Nigeria’s crude oil production increased by about 40.5 per cent to 1.84 million barrels per day (bpd), marking a significant rebound from the 1.31 million bpd recorded in February.
This was disclosed on April 2, 2026, when the Commission Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, visited the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, at the Federal Ministry of Finance headquarters in Abuja.
The latest figure represents a strong recovery in output, coming after Nigeria recorded 1.459 million bpd in January 2026 before declining sharply to 1.31 million bpd in February.
What they are saying
Both the regulator and the government expressed optimism over the rebound in oil production and the potential for further growth.
Eyesan highlighted the recent surge in output and expressed confidence that production levels would continue to improve.
- “We are doing 1.84 million barrels per day. That is a remarkable feat but I am sure we will do more,” she said.
On his part, Edun commended the Commission for the progress made, noting that the development aligns with the directive of Bola Tinubu.
- “It is heartening that you can tell us that you are doing 1.84 million barrels per day. That is fantastic news. That is totally in line with the mandate of President Bola Tinubu,” he said.
He also urged the regulator to sustain the momentum and push production to 2 million barrels per day.
- “I wish you continued success. What matters is not just reaching certain heights but sustaining it. We don’t want any stopping along the way. The trajectory should be maintained and of course the magic figure is 2mbpd,” Edun stated.
Get up to speed
Nairametrics previously reported that Nigeria’s crude oil production rose to 1.459 million bpd in January 2026, reinforcing its position as Africa’s largest oil producer despite falling short of its Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries quota.
- The January output represented an increase of 37,000 bpd from the 1.422 million bpd recorded in December 2025.
- However, production dropped to 1.31 million bpd in February.
Eyesan attributed the decline to operational challenges.
“But all that has been fixed and we are seeing production ramping up,” she said, noting that disruptions at key facilities and maintenance activities were responsible for the dip.
What this means
The recent increase in crude oil production above the Federal Government’s conservative benchmark of 1.8 million bpd could signal a positive boost for Nigeria’s fiscal outlook, especially for an economy where crude oil exports still account for 50% of total export earnings.
- With Nigeria generating about $31.54 billion from crude oil exports in 2025, a sustained rise in production could significantly improve revenue inflows, support budget implementation, and ease pressure on public debt.
- At the same time, global oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, well above the $64.85 benchmark in the 2026 budget.
However, the development comes amid growing fiscal demands.
Just days ago, President Bola Tinubu requested the Senate’s approval to raise the 2026 Appropriation Bill by N9 trillion, pushing the budget from N58.4 trillion to N67.4 trillion. The proposal did not clarify whether the increase would be funded by higher revenues or added to the already substantial deficit of N23.85 trillion.
What you should know
Nigeria is still falling short of its oil production targets in 2026 despite the recent rebound.
Nairametrics reported on March 24 that the country recorded a crude oil and condensate shortfall of about 16.6 million barrels between January and February, based on data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission.
Within the period, total output stood at about 92 million barrels, below the projected 108.6 million barrels based on the government’s benchmark of 1.84 million bpd.
While the Federal Government targets 2.6 million bpd for the year, it is working with a more conservative estimate of 1.8 million bpd for budget planning.
