Airlines could face cancellations of long-haul flights next month due to an anticipated shortage of jet fuel.
The disclosure was contained in an exclusive report by The Times, as highlighted in a post by Steven Swinford, Political Editor at The Times, on X.
Industry experts warn that the shortage could disrupt flights to key international destinations as fuel reserves run low and supply chains remain constrained.
What the report is saying
The expected jet fuel shortage is largely attributed to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most crucial shipping lanes for crude oil and refined products. This disruption has limited global jet fuel availability, putting pressure on both domestic and international airlines.
- “Airlines have been warned that they will face jet fuel shortages as soon as next month, risking flight cancellations to long-haul destinations at the end of the busy Easter holiday period.”
- “Oil traders expect to see shortages of jet fuel from the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz within the coming weeks as reserve supplies are run down and not replaced.”
Several countries, including China, Thailand, and Vietnam, have restricted fuel exports to protect domestic supplies, further tightening the global market.
The shortages pose a significant risk for airlines planning for peak travel seasons, with long-haul routes particularly vulnerable.
More insights
Long-haul flights require sufficient fuel for both outbound and return journeys, making them more sensitive to supply disruptions.
- Without guaranteed fuel availability, airlines may be forced to cancel services to major international destinations.
- Analysts warn that countries heavily reliant on imported jet fuel, especially in Europe, could experience cascading disruptions if the shortage persists.
Airlines are reportedly exploring contingency plans, though cancellations remain a substantial risk in the coming weeks.
The situation highlights the vulnerability of global aviation to geopolitical and supply chain shocks.
Get up to speed
Tensions in the Middle East involving the United States, Israel, and Iran have disrupted maritime energy trade, affecting global oil and aviation fuel supplies.
- The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow corridor between Iran and Oman handling roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments, has particularly worsened the situation.
- Marine insurers, including Gard, Skuld, NorthStandard, London P&I Club, and American Club, withdrew war risk coverage for vessels operating in the Gulf amid rising security concerns.
- The U.S. government directed the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and guarantees for energy shipments through the Gulf, though these do not fully replace traditional insurance layers.
Last Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump called on nations dependent on oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz to deploy naval forces to keep the strategic waterway open.
The developments highlight the global reliance on safe maritime passages for energy security.
What you should know
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has had ripple effects globally, including in Nigeria.
- The disruption has impacted local jet fuel availability, pushing prices from N950–N1,000 per litre to between N1,850 and over N2,000 per litre.
- Jet fuel traders in Nigeria still face challenges accessing international supplies due to shipping constraints. Options include buying from traders with tanks of jet fuel who sell in bulk, or purchasing from Dangote Refinery, although refinery purchases are priced in USD.
- International market prices, tracked via Platts, have surged from $780–$850 per metric ton to about $1,600 per metric ton due to scarcity and disrupted shipping routes.
For context, a single international flight departing Nigeria can require up to 100,000 litres of jet fuel.
The rising fuel costs and limited supply may affect airline operations and ticket pricing in the coming months. For many airlines, aviation fuel could now account for up to 30% of total operating costs, highlighting the financial pressure caused by the shortage.
