China has shifted from being a major source of funding for African economies to a net debt collector, marking a swing of more than $52 billion over the past decade.
This is according to new research by ONE Data for the Development Finance Observatory published on Tuesday.
The report shows that China has moved away from large-scale lending to African governments, with repayments now exceeding new funding across much of the continent.
The research highlights a sharp reversal in financial flows between China and Africa, demonstrating growing debt pressures on African economies and a changing role for China in development finance.
What the report is saying
China transitioned from providing substantial net funding to Africa to receiving more in repayments than it lends, reflecting a structural shift in its engagement with the continent.
According to the report, net financial flows turned negative over the last five years as African countries paid down existing obligations amid a slowdown in new Chinese lending.
“Africa went from receiving $30.4 billion in net flows from China in 2010–14 to paying out $22.1 billion in net flows to China over the last five years, a $52.5 billion swing,” the report said.
“Chinese inflows to low- and lower-middle income countries collapsed (from $26.5 billion in 2018 to $5.1 billion in 2024) while debt service outflows to China rose (from $10.6 billion to $17.4 billion).”
“In 2020–2024, 20 of these countries experienced net outflows to China, with total extraction of $33.8 billion.”
The data suggests that while Chinese financing has declined sharply, debt servicing obligations have continued to rise, placing additional strain on public finances in several African countries.
Get to speed
China emerged as Africa’s largest bilateral lender in the early 2000s, financing roads, railways, power projects, and other large-scale infrastructure across the continent.
- Lending expanded rapidly between 2010 and 2016, as Chinese policy banks backed multi-billion-dollar projects, often supported by government guarantees or tied to natural resources.
- Over the past decade, however, rising concerns over debt sustainability, project viability, and repayment capacity have prompted a gradual pullback.
- China has increasingly shifted away from so-called “mega loans” toward smaller, more targeted projects, while placing greater emphasis on recovering outstanding debts.
In Nigeria’s case, China remains the country’s largest bilateral creditor, accounting for $5.16 billion of the $6 billion external bilateral loan stock.
This represents a slight decline from about $5.3 billion owed to China as of December 2024, according to data from the Debt Management Office (DMO).
More Insights
Other data sources confirm the sharp decline in Chinese lending to Africa in recent years.
A report published last week by Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center showed that China’s lending to Africa fell to just $2.1 billion in 2024, down from $28.8 billion in 2016.
- The decline reflects both reduced appetite from Chinese lenders and growing caution among African borrowers.
- Many countries are now prioritising debt restructuring and fiscal consolidation over new borrowing.
- The shift has altered the balance of development finance available to African governments.
As China’s role has diminished, other lenders have stepped in to fill part of the gap, particularly multilateral development institutions.
What you should know
While Chinese lending has fallen sharply, multilateral lenders have significantly increased their financing to developing countries.
According to the ONE Data report, institutions such as the World Bank more than doubled their funding in the five years through 2024 compared with the same period a decade earlier.
- Multilateral lenders provided $378.7 billion in funding over the period.
- This amount accounted for 56% of net financial flows to developing nations.
- The share is roughly double what multilateral institutions contributed a decade earlier.
The contrast highlights a major realignment in global development finance, with Africa increasingly relying on multilateral lenders as China transitions from being a dominant funder to a net recipient of debt repayments from the continent.
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