Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.84% year-on-year in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2024, marking an improvement from 3.46% recorded in both the same period of 2023 and the preceding quarter.
The latest GDP data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that the growth was largely driven by the Services sector, which expanded by 5.37% and contributed 57.38% to the country’s total GDP.
The report read, “Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.84% (year-on-year) in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2024. This growth rate is higher than the 3.46% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the third quarter of 2024 growth rate (approximately 3.46%).
“The performance of the GDP in the fourth quarter of 2024 was driven mainly by the Services sector, which recorded a growth of 5.37% and contributed 57.38% to the aggregate GDP.”
Despite this, the agriculture sector recorded a slower growth rate of 1.76%, a decline from 2.10% in Q4 2023. The industry sector also underperformed, growing by 2.00%, lower than the 3.86% growth posted in Q4 2023.
For the full year 2024, Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.40%, an increase from 2.74% in 2023. In nominal terms, aggregate GDP for Q4 2024 stood at N78.37 trillion, reflecting an 18.91% increase from N65.91 trillion recorded in Q4 2023.
Although NBS plans to unveil a rebased GDP, Nairametrics observed that the Q4 2024 figures were calculated using the old methodology. The revised framework is expected to take effect from Q1 2025.
Oil sector falters despite higher output
Nigeria’s average daily oil production in Q4 2024 stood at 1.54 million barrels per day (mbpd), slightly lower than 1.56 mbpd recorded in Q4 2023 but an improvement from 1.47 mbpd in Q3 2024.
The oil sector recorded 1.48% real GDP growth, a sharp decline from 12.11% posted in Q4 2023 and lower than the 5.17% growth in Q3 2024.
The sector contributed 4.60% to GDP, down from 4.70% in the same period of 2023 and significantly lower than 5.57% in Q3 2024. However, for the full year, the sector grew by 5.54%, recovering from a -2.22% contraction in 2023.
Non-Oil sector dominates GDP growth
The non-oil sector remained the backbone of the economy, expanding by 3.96% in Q4 2024, higher than 3.07% in Q4 2023 and 3.37% in Q3 2024.
This sector accounted for 95.40% of total GDP, up from 95.30% in Q4 2023.
Growth in the non-oil sector was driven by Financial and Insurance Services, Information and Communication (Telecoms), Agriculture (Crop Production), Trade, and Manufacturing.
The transportation sector, particularly road transport, also contributed positively.
Sectoral breakdown: Who’s leading and lagging?
- Financial and Insurance Sector:
The financial services sector was one of the top-performing industries, growing by 27.78% in real terms in Q4 2024, although slightly lower than the 29.77% recorded in Q3 2024. The sector contributed 6.10% to GDP, an increase from 4.95% in Q4 2023.
- Information & Communication:
Nigeria’s telecoms industry continued its strong performance, expanding by 5.90% in real terms in Q4 2024, slightly lower than 6.32% in Q4 2023. The sector contributed 17.00% to total GDP, an increase from 16.66% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2023.
- Trade:
The trade sector recorded 1.19% real GDP growth, down from 1.40% in Q4 2023 but up from 0.65% in Q3 2024. It accounted for 15.11% of GDP.
- Manufacturing:
The manufacturing sector posted 1.79% real GDP growth, up from 1.38% in Q3 2024. However, its share of GDP declined to 8.07%, compared to 8.23% in Q4 2023.
- Construction:
The construction sector grew by 2.95% in real terms, slightly below 3.70% in Q4 2023. Its GDP contribution stood at 3.44%, lower than 3.47% in the same period last year.
- Transportation and Storage:
The transport sector rebounded, growing by 18.61% in real terms, a significant turnaround from the -29.00% contraction in Q4 2023. The sector’s GDP contribution rose to 1.26%.
- Electricity and Energy:
The electricity, gas, and steam sector continued to struggle, contracting by -5.04% in real terms, down from 6.17% in Q4 2023. Its GDP share stood at 0.49%.
