African airlines witnessed an increase of 90.5% in their international Revenue Passenger Kilometre (RPK), between September 2021 and September 2022.
This was disclosed by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in its Air Passengers Market Analysis (September edition), as seen by Nairametrics on Tuesday.
The increase can be attributed to the increasing number of Africans (Nigerians and Kenyans specifically) searching for greener pastures in Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, etc.
According to IATA, the September 2022 capacity was up 47.2% even as the load factor climbed 16.7 percentage points to 73.6%, the lowest among regions.
RPK explained: RPK is an airline industry metric that shows the number of kilometers traveled by paying passengers. It is calculated as the number of revenue passengers multiplied by the total distance traveled.
Details of the report: For African airlines, September was another month of steady recovery with 90.5% YoY growth. International RPKs have recovered consistently, accelerating in 2022. Nevertheless, RPKs remain 26.4% lower than in the same month of 2019.
- Asia-Pacific airlines saw a 464.8% rise in September traffic compared to September 2021, the strongest year-over-year rate among the regions. Capacity rose 165.3% and the load factor was up 41.5 percentage points to 78.3%.
- European carriers’ September traffic climbed 78.3% versus September 2021. Capacity increased by 43.8%, and the load factor moved up 16.3 percentage points to 84.1%, the second highest among the regions.
- Middle Eastern airlines posted a 149.7% traffic rise in September compared to September 2021. September capacity increased 63.5% versus the year-ago period, and the load factor climbed 27.6 percentage points to 80.0%.
- North American carriers recorded a 128.9% traffic rise in September compared to the same period in 2021. Capacity increased 63.0%, and the load factor climbed 24.6 percentage points to 85.4%, the highest among the regions for a fourth consecutive month.
- Latin American airlines’ September traffic rose 99.4% compared to the same month in 2021. September capacity climbed 73.7% and the load factor increased 10.8 percentage points to 83.5%.
- Total traffic in September 2022 (measured in revenue passenger kilometres or RPKs) rose 57.0% compared to September 2021. Globally, traffic is now at 73.8% of September 2019 levels.
- Domestic traffic for September 2022 was up 6.9% compared to the year-ago period. Total September 2022 domestic traffic was at 81% of the September 2019 level.
- International traffic rose by 122.2% in the review period compared to September 2021. September 2022 international RPKs reached 69.9% of September 2019 levels. All markets reported strong growth, led by Asia-Pacific.
A global recovery: Commenting on the report, IATA’s Director General, Willie Walsh, said that the global air transport demand has continued to improve post-pandemic, except for China. He said:
- “Even with economic and geopolitical uncertainties, the demand for air transport continues to recover ground. The outlier is still China with its pursuit of a zero COVID strategy keeping borders largely closed and creating a demand roller coaster ride for its domestic market, with September being down 46.4% on the previous year. That is in sharp contrast to the rest of Asia-Pacific, which, despite China’s dismal performance, posted a 464.8% increase in international traffic compared to the year-ago period.
- “Recovery trends for traffic in the Premium and Economy cabin classes remain broadly aligned, apart from the recent summer season during, which economy class travel took the lead. Economy class RPKs, which include premium economy (and account for 92% of total RPKs) reached 80.53% of their January 2020 level in July 2022.
- “Premium RPKs, which capture travel in first and business-class cabins fared nearly as well at 77.48% of the January 2020 level. In all regions, premium, and economy-class RPKs have recovered at a similar rate over the past few months.”
Experts’ view: A UK-based aviation expert Femi Oni, told Nairametrics that he expects the traffic to hit the roof by January 2023, as he is optimistic that more Nigerians, especially those on student-visa programs, will travel out of the country in pursuit of academic excellence. He said:
- “Many people, even those up to the age of 50 years, are seeking to leave Nigeria with their families. Shockingly, some Nigerians you may assume are comfortable here are also leaving in search of greener pastures abroad.
- “Some of the implications of this development is that the loyalty to the country has now been divided, as most of them are either looking to keep USD or Pounds Sterling rather than Naira. Many people are now trying to edge their risks and keeping funds in foreign currency. Also, many employees that were trained and re-trained in Nigeria are now travelling out of the country and transferring their expertise to other countries.”
Tolu Adebowale, a credit analyst with one of the tier-1 banks, told Nairametrics that there has been an extraordinary spike in travel loans since October 2021, with his company doing over N2 billion in value in the last year. She said:
- “Many young people who have travelled out of the country blame economic hardship for their emigration, and the figure will not drop anytime soon.”
Bottomline: Strong demand for tickets is helping the aviation industry cope with sky-high fuel prices. To support this demand in the long term, the industry needs to pay attention to what travellers are saying. After nearly three years of pandemic travel complexity, IATA’s 2022 Global Passenger Survey (GPS) shows that travellers want simplification and convenience. That’s an important message for airlines but also for airports and governments.
Editing by Emmanuel Abara Benson
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