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Currencies

Another devaluation lurks as dollar sells for N422.59 at NAFEX

The exchange rate between the Naira and the US Dollar traded for as high as N422.59 at the I&E window.

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Naira, Exchange rate falls across forex markets as dollar liquidity remains low

Tuesday 9th February 2021The exchange rate between the Naira and the US Dollar traded for as high as N422.59 at the Investor and Exporter in the clearest sign yet that another devaluation might be around the corner.  

However, the exchange rate closed at N401/1 representing a 0.63% decline compared to the closing rate of N398.5/$1 recorded on Monday, 8th February 2021.  

At N422/$1, traders believe this is a sign that the central bank is willing to accept further depreciation despite the rising price of crude oil.  

Meanwhile, the exchange rate at the black market remained unchanged at N480/$1. 

READ: Naira gains at NAFEX window despite 19.8% drop in dollar supply

Trading at the official NAFEX window  

The exchange rate between the naira and dollaat the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window to close at N401/$1 on Tuesday the lowest in 2021. This represents a decline of N2.5 compared to N398.5/$1 recorded on Monday. 

  • The opening indicative rate was N398.42/$1 to a dollar on Tuesday, 0.23% depreciation compared to N397.5/$1 recorded on Monday, 8th February 2021. 
  • The dollar sold for as high asN422 to a dollar during intra-day trading before it closed at N401 to a dollar. It also sold for as low as N390/$1 during intra-day trading.  
  • Just last week the CBN adjusted its NDF exchange rate due February 23rd  to N412.14 an early signal of where the apex bank thinks the exchange rate could land. 
  • Forex turnover declined by 15.1% at the Investor and Exporters (I&E) window to stand at $49.07 million declining from $57.78 million recorded on Monday8th February 2021. 

READ: Naira gains at black market as external reserves improves on higher oil prices

Cryptocurrency Watch  

  • The price of bitcoin soared to new heights during the day as it reached a record high of $48,216 before retreating to $47,421.53 as of 9:48 pm on Tuesday. 
  • The spike occurred on the back of the world’s richest man, Elon Musk announcing that his company Tesla had purchased Bitcoins worth up to $1.5 billion. 
  • Meanwhile, as Nigerians continued to rage against the central bank’s decision to stop cryptocurrency trading via bank, reports indicate the apex bank is investigating the role of commercial banks in crypto trading.  
  • Information reaching Nairametrics reveals some of the banks are jittery about the potential ramifications and threading with caution.  
  • Cryptocurrency exchanges have also kickstarted several informal engagements to manage any potential regulatory and law enforcement onslaught that could arise as the central bank remains dogged in its decisions. 

READ: Naira falls at NAFEX window as lower dollar supply piles more pressure on forex market

Oil prices hit record high 

Crude oil market extended its run of positive performance as Brent Crude hit a fresh high on Tuesday to close at $61.16 per barrel. 

  • Brent Crude oil gained 0.77% in Tuesday’s trading to stand at $61.16 per barrel.  
  • This gain came on the back of OPEC and its allies pledge to continue to cut down on global crude oil inventories while crude stockpiles in the United States fell to their lowest levels since March last year.  
  • WTI closed at $58.41 (+0.57%), OPEC Basket at $59.58 (+1.12%) while Bonny Light closed at $59.46 (+0.9%). 
  • The rise in crude oil prices could also be attributed to the expectations that the production curbs by OPEC+ would tighten the market in the first quarter of 2021 as well as the enhanced expectation of U.S economic stimulus package. 
  • Meanwhile, Nigeria’s Minister of State, Petroleum Resources, Timipre Sylva said on Tuesday that the federal government has set a target of $10 or less per barrel production cost for Nigeria’s oil industry. 

READ: Naira falls against the dollar at the forex market, liquidity down by 88%  

Nigeria’s external reserve on a steady decline 

  • Nigeria’s external reserve was $35.93 billion as of 8th February 2021, indicating a 0.32% decline when compared to $36.04 billion recorded as of Friday 5th February 2021. 
  • The foreign reserve has persistently recorded a steady decline since the 25th of January 2021, making a total of $593.4 million loss in 11 days. 

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Currencies

Exchange rate gains at NAFEX window as external reserve plunges further

Naira appreciated against the US Dollar on Monday to close at N409.2 to a dollar as Nigeria’s external reserve loses an additional $36.65 million.

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Monday 1st March 2021: The exchange rate between the naira and the US Dollar closed at N409.2/$1 at the Investors and Exporters window.

Naira appreciated against the US Dollar on Monday as it closed at N409.2 to a dollar at the NAFEX window, representing a 0.26% gain when compared to N410.25 recorded on the previous trading day.

Meanwhile, the exchange rate remained stable in the parallel market at N482/$1 on Monday after enduring a depreciation of N2 last week Friday from N480/$1 recorded on the previous day.

Also, forex turnover at the Investor and Exporters (I&E) window decreased by 35% from $37.49 million recorded on Friday to $24.38 million on Monday, 1st March 2021.

READ: Naira gains at NAFEX window as external reserve plunges $1.1 billion in less than a month

Trading at the official NAFEX window

The Naira gained against the US Dollar at the Investors and Exporters window on Monday to close at N409.2/$1. This represents a N1.05 gain when compared to N10.25 recorded on the previous trading day.

  • The opening indicative rate closed at N409.3 to a dollar on Monday. This represents a 6 kobo gain when compared to N409.24/$1 recorded on Friday.
  • Also, an exchange rate of N415 to a dollar was the highest rate during intra-day trading before it closed at N409.2/$1. It also sold for as low as N381/$1 during intra-day trading.
  • Forex turnover at the Investor and Exporters (I&E) window dropped to its lowest level in over a month as it declined by 35% on Monday, March 1, 2021.
  • According to the data tracked by Nairametrics from FMDQ, forex turnover decreased from $37.49  million recorded on Friday, February 26, 2021, to $24.38 million on Monday, March 1, 2021.

Cryptocurrency watch

The world’s largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin gained significantly on Monday to close at $49,629.33 compared to its previous closing of $43,165.78.

  • The highly volatile digital asset has risen 76.2% from the year’s low of $27,734 recorded on the 4th of January 2021.
  • The world’s biggest and best-known cryptocurrency has however fallen by 16.3% from the year’s high of $58,354 recorded on the 21st of February 2021.
  • Meanwhile, Ether ETH=BTSP, the coin linked to the ethereum blockchain network, rose by 8.74% to $1,546.06 on Monday, adding $124.29 to its previous close.

READ: Naira strengthens at NAFEX window despite 79.3% drop in dollar supply

Oil price decline

Brent Crude oil dipped $0.73 on Monday to close at $63.96 representing a 1.13% decline when compared to $64.42 recorded on the previous trading day.

  • Although oil prices had rallied earlier in the day after the U.S House passed the stimulus package of $1.9 trillion and another COVID-19 vaccine was approved for use in the United States.
  • The progress in the stimulus package approved by the House on Saturday after weeks of impasses lifted the sentiment on the oil market on Monday before recording a downturn later in the day to close negative.
  • Meanwhile, Analysts are expecting next week’s meeting of OPEC and its allies to result in more supply returning to the market as the oil prices rally over $60 per barrel.
  • WTI Crude closed at $60.04 (-0.99%), OPEC Basket (-1.61%), Bonny Light (-0.58%), and Natural Gas (+0.04%).

External reserve dips to lowest in two months

Nigeria’s external reserve declined by 0.1% to stand at $35.1 billion as of February 246h 2021 compared to $35.14 billion recorded as of 25th of February.

  • This represents the lowest external reserve position Nigeria has recorded in two-months when it stood at $34.98 billion as of 24, December 2020.
  • It is also worth noting that Nigeria lost over $1.2 billion in external reserves in the month of February.
  • According to data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), external reserves declined from $36.3 billion as of 29th of January 2021 to $35.1 billion as of 26th of February 2021.
  • The decline in Nigeria’s external reserve has persisted in the month of February, despite rallying oil prices in the month. This is a cause for worry, as Nigeria will hope to boost its reserve in order to meet up with its accumulated needs, hindered by the crash in oil prices earlier in 2020.

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Currencies

Naira falls across forex markets as CBN suggests official rate has been adjusted

The Naira depreciated against the US Dollar at the Investors and Exporters window on Friday closing at N410.25/$1.

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Naira-Dollars, Exchange rate falls at black market as forex liquidity declines by 89.8%

The exchange rate between the naira and the US Dollar depreciated to close at N410.25/$1 at the Investors and Exporters (NAFEX) window, where forex is traded officially. This is as the CBN Governor has suggested that the official exchange rate has been devalued.

Similarly, at the parallel market where forex is traded unofficially, the naira depreciated closing at N482/$1 on Friday, February 26. This represents 0.42% drop when compared to the N480/$1 that it closed on the previous trading day.

However, forex turnover at the Investor and Exporters (I&E) window decreased by 79.3% from $212.43 million recorded on Wednesday to $43.97 million on Thursday 25th February 2021.

READ: Naira strengthens at NAFEX window despite 79.3% drop in dollar supply

Trading at the official NAFEX window

The Naira depreciated against the US Dollar at the Investors and Exporters window on Friday closing at N410.25/$1. This represents a 0.39% drop when compared to N408.67/$1 recorded on Thursday, February 25, 2021.

  • The opening indicative rate closed at N409.24 to a dollar on Friday. This represents an 8 kobo drop when compared to N409.16/$1 recorded on Thursday.
  • Also, an exchange rate of N415 to a dollar was the highest rate during intra-day trading before it closed at N410.25/$1. It also sold for as low as N392/$1 during intra-day trading.
  • Forex turnover at the Investor and Exporters (I&E) window dropped by 14.7% on Friday, February 26, 2021.
  • According to the data tracked by Nairametrics from FMDQ, forex turnover decreased from $43.97 million recorded on Thursday, February 25, 2021, to $37.49 million on Friday, February 26, 2021.

READ: World’s largest oil producer loses four million barrels per day

Cryptocurrency watch

The world’s largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, dropped 6.39% to close at $43,165.78 on Sunday, losing $2,944.20 from its previous close.

  • Bitcoin has lost 26% from the year’s high of $58,354.14 on February 21, when it went up amid increasing confidence that it will become a mainstream investment and payments vehicle.
  • A quick recap of bitcoin’s worst weekly performance since March 2020, shows that the week’s high volatility was not caused by one factor. It was largely triggered by an overheated derivatives market as traders rushed to exit leveraged bets that had accumulated.
  • Further drops had coincided with a sell-off in the broader stock market due to rising concerns over surging bond yields, which might reduce the attraction for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.
  • Etherium dropped 8.88% to close at $1,329.46 on Sunday, losing $129.57 from its previous close.
  • Meanwhile, Nigeria’s Vice President, Yemi Osibanjo, while disagreeing with the CBN on its recent ban on cryptocurrencies, called for crypto regulation knowing fully well the role it plays in the global financial ecosystem. Osibanjo advised CBN and SEC to create a regulatory road map for cryptocurrencies.

READ: How Nigeria can make more money from Oil?

Oil price dip marginally on account of pullbacks

Brent crude oil price closed at $64.42 per barrel, dropping $1.69, the WTI Crude closed at $61.50 per barrel, dropping $2.03, OPEC Basket closed at $65.42, gaining $1.42 while the Bonny Light closed at $64.33 per barrel, dropping $1.20.

  • These forecasts have called for an increase in crude oil supply in response to prices climbing above the pre-pandemic level.
  • Analysts are also expecting that next week’s meeting of OPEC and its allies will result in more supply returning to the market.
  • U.S. crude oil production fell in December to an average 11.063 million barrels per day, when compared to the average of 12.8 million barrels per day that was achieved in December 2019, according to the Energy Information Administration’s latest monthly report.
  • U.S. crude oil production fell an average of 58,000 barrels per day, the EIA said on Friday.

The steady decline in external reserves

Nigeria’s external has declined by 0.15% to stand at $35.17 billion as of February 24th 2021 compared to $35.23 recorded as of 23rd February.

  • This indicates that Nigeria has lost a total of $1.13 billion in external reserve positive in the month of February.
  • According to data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), external reserves declined from $36.3 billion as of 29th of January 2021 to $35.17 billion as of 24th of February.
  • It is however worth noting that the decline in Nigeria’s external reserve has persisted despite a sharp increase in global crude oil prices as it is currently over $64 per barrel from $55.04 recorded as at the end of January.

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