The Nigerian stock market closed the month of October with aplomb posting the biggest monthly gains in almost two years. The Nigerian All Share Index ended the point with 35,034 points closing with a month to date gains of 14.72%.
Stocks are up 30.48% year to date and on track to reverse the losses of the last two years. Stocks are still off the 2017 high of 38, 243 points suggesting that there could be more room for growth.
Major Driver for Stocks
The stock market has attracted significant demand from institutional and retail investors seeking higher returns on their investments. With interest rates on alternative investments such as fixed income, hundreds of billions of local investor cash flowed into the stock market sending the bulls raging.
- The central bank’s policy on lowering interest rates has been positive for the stock market as investors scrambling for yield turn to the stock market. The Covid-19 lockdown sent stocks crashing earlier in the year falling by 18.75% in March alone as investors dumped stocks in droves.
- This sent dividend yield into double digits only making it a matter of time before investors.
- Nigerian stocks have also benefited from the positive sentiments surrounding the rise in oil prices even and the slew of announcements of a vaccine being found for Covid-19.
During the month, Livestock Feeds gained the highest with a 132% returns month to date followed by International Breweries with an 84% pop. Airtel Africa joined the top 10 gainers list during the month with a 55% gain as investors rewarded the telco for its impressive results.
On a year to date basis, Sunu Assurance topped the gainers’ chart with a 400% gain followed by BUA cement with 204%. Livestock Feeds, Airtel, and United Capital makes up the rest of the top 5 stocks this year gaining 160%, 97%, and 88% respectively.
United Capital and BUA Cement are included in Nairametrics Stock Select Portfolio.
Can this be sustained?
Investors remain wary of the stock market with the experiences of the last two years still fresh in memories. However, there are factors that could tip the market towards a bearish run.
Interest rates – When the CBN chooses to raise interest rates on treasury bills or OMO bills just know it is time to exit. I need not explain this further.
Zombie Stocks gaining – These are stocks with little to zero fundamentals gaining by double digits. We saw some of these last week and it was quite disturbing. But as an SSN subscriber, we will never recommend a Zombie stock so you cannot be caught napping.
Political Instability – Nigerian Stocks withstood the EndSars protest after a few days of panicking selling. However, with tensions still in the air, any more political skirmishes could depress the market severely. Nigerian politicians have so far demonstrated an impressive array of skills in managing internal crisis so I am betting that they can manage this. However, with the economy in dire straits, this remains a huge concern for me.
Bombing – I shuddered during the week when I heard there were meetings going on in the Niger Delta to discuss states in the North who were mining and selling Gold. The last thing we need now is another bombing from Niger Delta Militants. If that happens then expect a massive sell off.
Oil Prices – Nigerians stocks remain perfectly correlated to oil prices. It is a rule that has remained for decades and still matters. Whilst we have seen oil prices dipped below $40 in recent weeks, it has found ways to creep above it. The recent wave of covid-19 cases globally remains a concern but this is largely mitigated by the discovery of a possible Covid-19 vaccine.
Foreign Investors – During the week, the operators of the MSCI Index for frontier markets decided to take no action on Nigeria. This means despite all the challenges we have with forex; they still see the Nigerian stock market as a destination for foreign portfolio investments. I do not expect foreign investors to continue to invest in Nigeria due to challenges with capital control, but our market is still attractive. In fact, I hear stocks like Nestle, Nigeria Breweries, International Breweries are attracting significant foreign portfolio investments.
Where does this lead to?
We are now on the cusps of a new market order. If interest rates remain this low, we will continue to see a stock market that will be robust and resilient. Our bold theory is that we might never see another major stock market crash if we sustain this bullish ride for another full quarter.
Explore Data on the Nairametrics Research Website
- Investors will demand more accountability from the management of companies while regulators will enforce transparency.
- Companies will publish interim and annual reports regularly and will reinforce their investor relations business.
- This will trigger confidence in the stock market allowing for sustained investing. At some point soon, we will see the return of mega IPOs, Public Offers, and right issues.
- Retail investors will flock into the market, but they will be better informed about what to buy and what not to buy.
- This might all sound overly optimistic but let us remember the US stock market has been on a bullish ride since 2008.
Indeed, the global equities market will remain sustained on the positive side if governments in the west continue with their quantitative easing programs that pump in cheap money into the economy.
These are Nigerian stocks Warren Buffett may likely buy
Financial market experts talk on what Nigerian stocks Warren Buffet may likely consider, based on his unique principles.
Warren Buffett’s strategy as regards investments has earned him the popular nickname the “world’s greatest investor.”
The global investment community holds the 90-year-old man with so much high esteem when his successful investment strides is considered and the fact that he is now worth about $88.4 billion, and seats on the boards of so many blue-chip companies.
Buffet has long believed in the value-based investing model, as he only invests in companies that exhibit solid fundamentals such as strong earning power, the potential for continued growth, and most importantly, selecting those with low or no debt.
Consequently, Nairametrics has sought the opinions of selected financial market experts on what Nigerian stocks the world’s most powerful investor may likely consider, based on his unique principles.
Angela Aya, Head, Institutional Sales at Alonati in an exclusive interview with Nairametrics spoke on key insights Buffett usually looks out for when selecting stocks.
“Warren Buffet’s investment philosophy centers around traditional yet intricate qualities like company debt profile, profitability, historical performance, exposure to commodities, product offerings, and historical dividend payouts.
“He is considered a value investor focusing on high dividend-paying blue-chip companies that show robust earnings characterized by strong balance sheets holding investments over the long term,” Aya said.
She elaborated on the impressive performance of the Nigerian Stock market in relation to the value they bring in the long haul by stating;
“Despite the Nigerian All Share Index outperforming the rest of the world in 2020, Nigerian stocks are relatively cheap from a purchasing power parity standpoint.
“Therefore, in a long-term strategic value investment play, bellwether stocks that offer stability, show profitability, and are resistant to systemic shocks will be the picks. They may not be trendy or might seem out-right boring, but they are reliable and proven to outperform given time. “
Adetayo Teluwo, a Portfolio Manager at one of Nigeria’s most valuable firms spoke on key metrics accustomed to Warren Buffet’s investment style;
Teluwo said, “I will focus on the long term, adopt a buy-and-hold mentality and prioritize blue-chip dividend-paying stocks that have proven their worth over decades.
Since I do not have bottomless pockets, I will make out time to shortlist based on ROE, D/E, and a blend of perceived ‘intrinsic value’
ROE = Net Income ÷ Shareholder’s Equity
Debt-to-Equity Ratio = Total Liabilities ÷ Shareholders’ Equity
Following Buffett’s investment principle, Adetayo went further by revealing the type of Nigerian stocks he would select. He said;
“According to Warren, if you aren’t thinking about owning a stock for ten years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes.
“If I had the conviction of Warren, these will be my top stock picks:
“Julius Berger, UBA, Zenith Bank, GTBank, Custodian, NAHCO, CHI Plc, NEM, Jaiz Bank, WAPIC, Unilever, GSK, MANSARD, Dangote Sugar, Afrinsure”
Silas Ozoya, President/CEO, SUBA Capital adds up to our remarkable respondents as he discloses that Nigeria’s stock market’s most liquid sector would be on Buffett’s top list, not forgetting his love for consumer staple stocks;
“Banking stocks for a start would be his first pick because he has a history of investing in financial institutions.
“So, he would go with stocks like Zenith Bank, GTBank, and FCMB because of profitability in the case of Zenith. Cutting edge technology in the case of GTBank, and versatile banking products in the case of FCMB.
“Warren Buffet is also big with daily consumables and beverages. So, he would go with the stocks of Nigerian Breweries Plc, Dangote Sugar, and Guinness Nigeria Plc.
“I’ve been following Warren Buffet’s investment strategy for a while and three things I’ve noticed are that he says the money would always exchange hands, financial institutions would always make money, and people would always consume daily consumables.”
- It’s key to highlight the rarity of Warren Buffet’s tenets in selecting stocks on the account that he has remained relatively consistent over many decades.
- Still, it remains critical for readers to understand that applying Buffet’s strategy takes a whole lot of discipline and patience.
- However, the few who have followed the founder of the world’s biggest conglomerate, (Berkshire Hathaway) on applying his analytical investment tools have had no regrets in the long term.
Netflix gains 17% after beating investors expectation
Netflix for the first time ever passed the 200 million subscriber mark and had an impressive reserve of $8.2 billion in cash.
Netflix’s share price bounced about 17% higher after it beat market expectation, powering the video streaming stock to close high after adding more customers than expected and revealed it no longer needs debt in building its entertainment empire.
The positive upbeat guidance on free cash prompted bullish remarks from Wall Street analysts, though some questioned how much of the subscriber growth was pulled forward.
Stock traders increased their buying pressure on Netflix stock because of the surprisingly strong growth, as well as news that Netflix balance sheets are solid enough for Netflix considering share buybacks. Shares jumped 17% percent to $586.34 in recent trading Wednesday.
Netflix for the first time ever passed the 200 million subscriber mark and had an impressive reserve of $8.2 billion in cash.
COVID-19 pandemic has aided Netflix’s business, forcing people in spending more time indoors coupled with curbing other traditional entertainment options like movie theaters and concerts.
Netflix added 25.9 million customers in H1, 2020, and ended up adding 36.6 million customers in all – a record.
“Investors come out of the fourth quarter incrementally more bullish on the potential of a powerful developing shareholder return story for Netflix in the coming years,” Evercore ISI analyst, Lee Horowitz wrote in a note to Bloomberg News.
Analysts at J.P. Morgan Securities said the company is likely to begin share buybacks in the second half of the year.
Quick fact: Netflix is an American streaming company that allows subscribers to watch movies, documentaries, different popular TV shows, and many more through internet-connected hardwires.
Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi in a note to Nairametrics also spoke on the impressive gains sighted in the $259 Billion valued company;
“Earnings reports also underpinned equity sentiment. Netflix rose 16% after noting its subscriber numbers increased by a record 37 million in 2020. Serenely, it seems lockdowns and TV go hand in hand.
“A testament to the maximum policy overdrive, investors wasted little time getting their feet wet after Janet Yellen espoused by the Biden “go big” policy approach to repair the economic damage caused by the pandemic, which also highlights the importance of helping small businesses and the unemployed.”
What to expect: The Stock market is seeing through longer lockdowns on the premise that COVID vaccinations will lead us out of the pandemic quickly and had helped triggered significant buying pressure on stocks like Netflix taking advantage of reduced social mobility in play
World’s biggest asset manager provides Bitcoin to clients
The world’s largest asset manager BlackRock Inc is adding bitcoin futures as an eligible investment asset class.
The world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock Inc is adding bitcoin futures as an eligible investment asset class according to a recent filing by the leading asset management company in a move to bring crypto to its customers.
BlackRock, in a report credited to Reuters disclosed that it was using such asset class as bitcoin derivatives for its two funds namely; BlackRock Global Allocation Fund and BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities.
Such funds listed above will invest only in cash-settled bitcoin futures traded on commodity exchanges registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the company said in a filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission yesterday.
Recall some weeks ago, BlackRock CEO, Larry Fink had disclosed, the flagship crypto is on his company’s radar amid the rapid gains recorded by Bitcoin this year alone.
Speaking recently at the Council on Foreign Relations alongside Mark Carney, former Governor of the Bank of England, Fink said, “Bitcoin has caught the attention and the imagination of many people. Still untested, pretty small relative to other markets.”
- BlackRock is the world’s biggest asset manager with about $7.4 trillion in assets under management as of the end of Q4 2019.
- Its massive size allows it to do what no other asset management on planet earth can do.
Also, the BlackRock CIO of Fixed Income buttressed his bias, on why Cryptos are here to stay, taking into account its role in payments among the world’s millennials.
“I think cryptocurrency is here to stay and I think it is durable and you’ve seen the central banks that have talked about digital currencies. I think digital currency and the receptivity, particularly millennials’ receptivity to technology and cryptocurrency is real. Digital payments systems are real, so I think Bitcoin is here to stay,” he said.