Gold gained for a second week in a row breaching the $1,900 price level. The gains were triggered by high hopes for a new U.S. Covid-19 relief deal and the sudden plunge in the U.S dollar on Friday.
U.S. gold futures settled at $1,926.20/ounce up to $31.10 on Friday. For the week, it gained about 1%. On the other hand, Spot gold, known for tracking bullion prices in bullion, gained 1.8% to settle at $1,928.31.
In addition, the U.S dollar plunged heavily on Friday, as it headed towards its second consecutive weekly loss over higher commodity prices. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies, edged down 0.68% to 93.012.
“Gold prices skyrocketed … after the White House blinked first over the stimulus deadlock,” said Ed Moya, an analyst at New York’s OANDA. “Gold looks like it will benefit from a stimulus deal before the election. It is unclear if Democrats will accept the latest … offer, but it seems the White House is determined to get something done.”
Why gold price is rising: Gold prices have recorded impressive gains so far in 2020, propelled by low-interest rates in many emerged markets such as Europe, Japan, and America. The widespread stimulus from global central banks has also helped in boosting the price of the safe-haven asset, considered a bulwark against inflation and currency debasement.
Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi, in a note to Nairametrics, explained the macros that gold traders will have on their minds, especially in the coming week. He said:
“After a hectic week on the gold desk, traders are left taking inventory of a crazy week on the gold counter.
“I think gold investors are fully loaded and not reacting to any correlations (for example, the weaker dollar higher gold), which suggests to me that investors are marking time while institutional traders are going over the data logs to game plan for next week.”
Oil prices stay on course as Saudi’s Energy Minister reassures traders
British based oil contract traded at about $63 a barrel while the WTI futures were trading slightly below the $60 price level.
Crude oil prices remained relatively firm at the early hours of Friday’s trading session as oil traders digested Saudi Arabia’s defense of OPEC+ plans in raising output thereby capping gains.
At press time, the British based oil contract traded at about $63 a barrel while the West Texas Intermediate futures were trading slightly below the $60 price level.
Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman recently revealed that there were no pressing concerns of demand/supply dynamics changing gear amid the gradual boost in outputs in an interview aired on Thursday, adding that OPEC+ had all ammunition put in place to change course if necessary. OPEC+ will continue to meet monthly on reviewing the energy market supply dynamics.
Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi in a note to Nairametrics spoke on the prevailing market sentiment amid macros pointing to more oil supplies hitting the sensitive energy market and an upsurge in COVID-19 caseloads.
“Positioning is much cleaner, although the market remains directionally long oil. However, the sudden calm and drop in volatility have attracted passive investors back to the fray as the market structure around prompt spreads start to tighten and the dollar begins to roll over.
“Still, the conflicting signals around OPEC+ supply coming back to market amid spiking coronavirus case numbers in India plus parts of Canada as well as Tokyo backtracking into the lockdown Abyss, together with reports linking the UK’s Covid-19 vaccine workhorse to the higher frequency of blood clots, continues to hold the bulls at bay.”
What to expect: The most recent OPEC+ agreement on releasing barrels into such present demand was not out of place – suggesting the futuristic price of oil might range between the $60 -$70 price levels with production normalization vs current high excess production capacity taken into consideration.
Gold retreats from 2-week high amid a stronger U.S economy
Gold futures edged lower by 0.20% to trade at $1,739.45 an ounce amid falling U.S. Treasury Yields.
Gold’s price retreated from its two-week high as positive data from the world’s biggest economy bolstered hopes for a quick economic recovery from COVID-19, despite the recent lockdowns seen in Western Europe.
At press time, Gold futures edged lower by 0.20% to trade at $1,739.45 an ounce amid falling U.S. Treasury Yields, while the greenback slipped to a two-week low.
Just recently, the job openings report in the U.S for February posted a two-year high of 7.367 million; hiring also recorded its biggest surge in 9 months.
However, Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi, in a note to Nairametrics, spoke on the prevailing market conditions giving the precious metal the needed support in the mid-term amid the falling value in the U.S dollar.
“Gold jumps as the US dollar and yields fall. And with the dollar not responding to “US exceptionalism,” it still leaves room for further price climbs.
Gold prices firmed in volatile Asian and European trading as the Easter holidays ended and full trading got back underway. Gold received support from the FX markets as EUR/USD retained Monday’s gains, putting gold on a firm footing.
And as we all know, gold in a dollar weaker environment tends to remain tethered at the hip to the Euro.”
Metal pundits argue that the current weakening of the greenback and a recent easing in yields will effectively provide the accelerant to a rally in gold and silver in the midterm.
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