Cocoa hits 24-week high amid heavy rains in Nigeria, Ghana and Ivory Coast

Cocoa prices have successfully broken out of their extended late 2025/early 2026 correction.

Cocoa Futures have rallied back to multi-month highs amid supply fears and looming weather risks in the past few weeks.

Cocoa prices have begun an aggressive comeback: since its dramatic fall from a record high north of $11,000/MT in mid-2024 to a low just north of $3,100-$3,300/MT in March/April 2026,

September cocoa futures on the ICE in New York (CCU26) are trading at $6,366/MT as of July 10th 2026, having hit a 24-week high.

Momentum has taken a sharp upward turn, rising nearly 40% in just four weeks. The price difference between front- and back-month futures contracts is widening, indicating the market is pricing in a structural premium for volatility and not anticipating a rapid return to pre- correction pricing levels.

The early- 2026 plunge was mainly fueled by demand destruction (plant shut-ins and shrinkflation) and heavy West African port arrivals from the previous harvest. Nevertheless, leading indicators in the new September 2026/27 main crop have prompted brisk buying.

Heavy rains in West Africa disrupt cocoa-producing regions

Heavy rains in the Ivory Coast and Ghana have flooded plantations, backing up logistics and limiting the transportation of pods. Even more pressing, high humidity levels have prompted an immediate black pod/brown rot alert, the disease that can blight early- forming pods.

Field surveys in Ivory Coast (the world’s top producer) suggest that the formation of younger cocoa pods (cherelles) is running below average. Initial consensus surveys for the 2026/27 Ivorian crop estimate output may fall to 1. 7-1. 8 million metric tons (MT), down substantially from the 2. 2 million MT forecast for the current season.

Although Ivory Coast and Ghana tend to lead global cocoa price fluctuations, the world’s 5th largest producers, Nigeria, is experiencing unique fundamental disruptions that are playing a major role in this bullish surge:  Nigerian cocoa- producing regions have experienced extremely high and prolonged rainfall.

Moisture is essential for maintaining and growing cocoa pods, but too much can be destructive. Incredibly moist and cloudy weather conditions make the prospect of black pod disease and brown rot breaking out and instantly destroying whole batches more prominent than ever. Nigeria’s Cocoa Association has already predicted a baseline that shows tightness before the heavier flood damage.

• Nigeria’s cocoa harvest of 2025/26 should decrease roughly 11% from that of the previous cycle, falling from 344, 344,000 to 305,000, 000 metric tons of cocoa. Even that lowered expectation is in jeopardy with the current deluge.
• The Japan Meteorological Agency and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre have highlighted the high probability of an El Niño of “Super” strength, and traders are bidding to preempt that – since El Niños usually deliver searing heat and arid conditions to the region in the later stages of crop development that can hammer productivity.

The market is waking up to the reality that 2026 will not be a “reset” year. World stock-to-use stocks are still in a brutally deficient state from the “lost 2024 season,” and the most recent physical inventories at ICE-certified warehouse bags are at their highest level in two years; they will be insufficient to offset the ongoing and deeper systemic structural issues: ageing tree stocks, structural underinvestment on-farm and 3–5-year lags on replanting.

Market Takeaway:

Future contracts for the 2026/27 crop are pricing in steep declines, while physical supply is technically readily available on spot markets today. Look for baseline pricing to be $5k-$7k/MT for most of Q3’26 as July/August field results confirm the extent of the West African damage.