OPEC and Alliance Output Cut are not enough to mitigate Brent’s Oversupply Issues

Oil has witnessed several challenges ranging from uncertainties over demand as a result the coronavirus pandemic as well as crude oversupply. As a result of partial easing of the lockdown in many parts of the world, oil prices have started to witness a partial recovery.

However, director and analyst from Westwood Global Energy Group, Thom Payne, has noted that Brent crude still needs to deal with its oversupply issues before it can successfully move on with its current price range of $40 and $50 per barrel.

His comments came after a recent agreement by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as well as efforts by an oil-producing alliance to extend a historic oil production slash until the end of July 2020. The alliance had cut production by 9.7 million barrels per day at the start of May 1. While the cut had helped improve crude prices in the last two months, he explained that there is still a need to drain the current oversupply, which had hit 14 million barrels a day, before prices can move materially above the stated $40 to $50 per barrel price structure.

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His comments came after the group, known collectively as OPEC+, on Saturday had agreed to extend its record oil production cut for another month towards balancing the needs of the global oil market. In the afternoon of Asian trading hours on Monday, Brent rose by 1.49% to trade at $42.93 per barrel. Also, U.S. crude futures  gained 1.34% to trade at $40.08 per barrel.

Speaking on the outlook of the market, he explained that “What’s likely to happen is that the oil markets move to a net draw or undersupply position by around July, August of this year and this would be very supportive of the current $40-50 per barrel price range for Brent.” This assumes that the demand scenario that OPEC attains plays out the way they have put it. However, he notes that the possibility of 100% compliance might be somewhat optimistic.

(READ MORE:May Output Cut: OPEC+ records 86% compliance as Nigeria beats expectation)

Commenting on the recent OPEC+ agreement and the outlook of the market, JPMorgan’s Head of Asia Pacific Commodities Research, Scott Darling, noted that JPMorgan sees Brent at $40 dollars per barrel this year and $47 per barrel for next year.