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OPEC and Alliance Output Cut are not enough to mitigate Brent’s Oversupply Issues

Brent crude still needs to deal with its oversupply issues before it can successfully move on with its current price range of $40 and $50 per barrel.  

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Crude oil prices rally as investors remain optimistic about oil production cut ,Brent Crude continues to rally as businesses resume around the world, Brent crude,, Petrol: OMCs to resume importation of Petrol, Crude oil prices drop, geopolitical tension strengthens, OPEC and Alliance Output Cut are not enough to mitigate Brent’s Oversupply Issues, Brent crude falls, global investors fear strengthened on resurgence of COVID-19 cases, Brent crude drops, as COVID-19 caseloads rise in the world’s largest economies

Oil has witnessed several challenges ranging from uncertainties over demand as a result the coronavirus pandemic as well as crude oversupply. As a result of partial easing of the lockdown in many parts of the world, oil prices have started to witness a partial recovery.

However, director and analyst from Westwood Global Energy Group, Thom Payne, has noted that Brent crude still needs to deal with its oversupply issues before it can successfully move on with its current price range of $40 and $50 per barrel.

His comments came after a recent agreement by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as well as efforts by an oil-producing alliance to extend a historic oil production slash until the end of July 2020. The alliance had cut production by 9.7 million barrels per day at the start of May 1. While the cut had helped improve crude prices in the last two months, he explained that there is still a need to drain the current oversupply, which had hit 14 million barrels a day, before prices can move materially above the stated $40 to $50 per barrel price structure.

His comments came after the group, known collectively as OPEC+, on Saturday had agreed to extend its record oil production cut for another month towards balancing the needs of the global oil market. In the afternoon of Asian trading hours on Monday, Brent rose by 1.49% to trade at $42.93 per barrel. Also, U.S. crude futures  gained 1.34% to trade at $40.08 per barrel.

Speaking on the outlook of the market, he explained that “What’s likely to happen is that the oil markets move to a net draw or undersupply position by around July, August of this year and this would be very supportive of the current $40-50 per barrel price range for Brent.” This assumes that the demand scenario that OPEC attains plays out the way they have put it. However, he notes that the possibility of 100% compliance might be somewhat optimistic.

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(READ MORE:May Output Cut: OPEC+ records 86% compliance as Nigeria beats expectation)

Commenting on the recent OPEC+ agreement and the outlook of the market, JPMorgan’s Head of Asia Pacific Commodities Research, Scott Darling, noted that JPMorgan sees Brent at $40 dollars per barrel this year and $47 per barrel for next year.

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Energy

Shell to focus on Nigeria, Gulf of Mexico and others as it seeks to cut 40% of costs

Shell is seeking to cut 40% of operating costs in its upstream oil and gas.

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Shell warns investors it may write down up to $22 billion due to oil crash

Royal Dutch Shell announced that it would focus its operations on Nigeria, Gulf of Mexico, The North Sea and a few others as it looks to reduce oil and gas production costs by 40%.

This was announced by Reuters in an exclusive report Monday after speaking with sources. Shell sources also reveal it would direct the saved costs into more renewable energy investments. The new project would be called Project Reshape, and would be implemented in all three divisions of the company with the aim of saving $4 billion due to the effect of the pandemic on the industry.

READ: Petroleum Industry Bill set to go to President Buhari

Nairametrics reported in July that Shell warned in its second-quarter 2020 outlook that it could write down between $15 billion – $22 billion in post impairment charges for Q2, due to the heavy effect of the pandemic in their business. Shell had earlier this year, shocked investors by cutting dividend by 2 thirds for the first time since World War 2.

A source told Reuters that the new reshape of the company would not only shake up the structure but also the culture and “type of company we want to be”, as the company fancies investments into the power and renewable sector with historical low margins, and also competition from other oil companies seeking to go green.

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(READ MORE: Warehousing and logistics: Key to the success of deregulation in Nigeria)

Shell is seeking to cut 40% of operating costs in its upstream oil and gas to make the new vision possible and focus on just key assets in Nigeria, Gulf of Mexico and others.

In the Downstream sector, Shell also plans on cutting costs in its fuel stations business with about 45,000 in service. A spokeswoman from the company announced that a cost competitive total strategic view of the organization is in place, “which intends to ensure we are set up to thrive throughout the energy transition and be a simpler organization.”

READ: Banks’ loans to private sector increase by N3.50 trillion in one year – CBN

CEO, Van Beurden said Shell would deliver $billion in its cost savings drive by Marche 2021, which includes suspended bonuses and job cuts. Shell also plans to reduce it refineries from 17 to 10 and announced plans of selling 3.

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Business

Petrol supply drops by over 23% due to decline in consumption

Consumption of petroleum products to decline to 27.2 billion litres in 2020.

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Subsidy and PIB, petrol price, PPPRA, We have sufficient PMS stock for 38 days- DPR 

The total volume of petrol supplied in Nigeria declined by 23.88% in July, when it fell from 1.34 billion litres in June 2020 to 1.02 billion litres.

This was disclosed by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), in its monthly performance data for July.

According to the report, the 1.02 billion litres translated to 32.95 million litres per day, down from 44.62 million litres per day in June, when 1.34 billion litres were supplied.

READ: Bottom Line: Honeywell smells really good but….

The performance data also stated that 0.95 billion litres (30.67 million litres/day) were supplied in May, and 0.94 billion litres (31.37 million litres/day) in April.

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In March and February, the volume of petrol supplied stood at 1.73 billion (59.72 million litres/day), up from 1.20 billion litres in January (38.68 million litres/day)

It stated, “The corporation has continued to diligently monitor the daily stock of Premium Motor Spirit, to achieve smooth distribution of petroleum products and zero fuel queue across the nation.”

READ: UBA Plc H1’2020 results, a true reflection of its rightsizing decision? 

Agusto projects further decline

Experts in Agusto & Co, in a report, have noted that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activities in the country resulted in a decline in the consumption of petroleum products.

The report said, “Agusto & Co. expects the consumption of petroleum products, particularly PMS and Aviation Turbine Kerosene, to decline to 27.2 billion litres in 2020, given the severely restricted travel and transportation activities during the second and third quarters of the year.

“This is expected to translate to a decline in revenue to N4.3tn in 2020.”

READ: Petrol supply drops by 21%, NNPC gives reasons for high production cost

Back story:

NNPC has, until recently, been the sole importer of petrol into the country for more than two years, after private oil marketers stopped importing the commodity, due to crude price fluctuations, among other issues.

The refineries, located in Port Harcourt, Kaduna and Warri, have a combined installed capacity of 445,000 barrels per day, but have continued to operate far below the installed capacity.

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Energy

CBN introduces N250 billion stimulus package for gas investment to ease pain of fuel price increase

The CBN has introduced a stimulus package to help stimulate investment in gas as an alternative to fuel.

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To test FX market, CBN pumps $50 million, CBN issues guidelines to Finance Institutions on establishment of Subsidiaries and SPVs, CBN injects $2.63 billion to defend naira in one month, CBN’s COVID-19 N50 billion targeted credit facility, CBN’s heterodox policies buoys credit growth

As part of the palliative following the sharp increase in the price in the pump price of petrol, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has introduced a N250 billion stimulus package under a National Gas Expansion Programme that it hopes will help stimulate investment in the gas value chain and spur its use in transportation as an alternative to fuel-powered cars.

Large scale projects under this intervention programme will be financed under the Power and Airlines Intervention Fund (PAIF), in line with existing guidelines regulating the PAIF, while small scale operators and retail distributors will be financed by the NIRSAL Microfinance Bank (NMFB) and/or any other Participating Financial Institution (PFI) under the Agribusiness/Small and Medium Enterprises Investment Scheme (AgSMEIS).

READ: NIRSAL explains why it is not disbursing N50 billion CBN loan

This initiative is to be implemented in collaboration with the Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources.

The objectives of the facility include;

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  • Improved access to finance for private sector investments in the domestic gas value chain.
  • Stimulate investments in the development of infrastructure to optimize the domestic gas resources for economic development.
  • Fast track the adoption of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) as the fuel of choice for transportation and power generation, as well as Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) as the fuel of choice for domestic cooking, transportation, and captive power.
  • Fast track the development of gas-based industries particularly petrochemical (fertilizer, methanol, etc) to support large industries such as agriculture, textile, and related industries.
  • Provide leverage for additional private sector investments in the domestic gas market.
  • Boost employment across the country.

READ: CBN’s N50 billion loan: NIRSAL warns Nigerians against fake loan adverts

The activities that are eligible under the intervention shall include;

  • Establishment of gas processing plants and small scale petrochemical plants.
  • Establishment of gas cylinder manufacturing plants.
  • Establishment of L-CNG regasification modular systems
  • Establishment of autogas conversion kits or components manufacturing plants.
  • Establishment of CNG primary and secondary compression stations.
  • Establishment and manufacturing of LPG retail skid tanks and refilling equipment.
  • Development/enhancement of autogas transportation systems, conversion, and distribution infrastructure.
  • Enhancement of domestic cylinder production and distribution by cylinder manufacturing plants and LPG wholesale outlets.
  • Establishment/expansion of micro-distribution outlets and service centres for LPG sales, domestic cylinder injection, and exchange and
  • Any other mid to downstream gas value chain related activity recommended by the Ministry of Petroleum Resources.

READ: CBN warns SMEs not to pay any fee to access its N50 billion stimulus package

The aggregators, manufacturers, processors, wholesale distributors, and related activities shall be funded under the Power and Airline Intervention Fund (PAIF), while the Small and Medium-scale Enterprises (SMEs) and retail distributors shall be funded by NIRSAL Microfinance Bank under AgSMEIS.

For the manufacturers, processors, wholesale distributors, etc, the term loan shall be determined based on the activity and shall not exceed N10 billion per obligor. The working capital shall be a maximum of N500 million per obligor.

While for the small and medium enterprises, the term loan shall be based on the activity and shall not exceed N50 million per obligor. The working capital shall be a maximum of N5 million per obligor.

READ: How to access the N50 billion CBN Covid-19 intervention fund for SMEs

Interest Rate

The interest rate under the intervention shall be at not more than 5% per annum (all-inclusive) up to February 28, 2021, thereafter, interest on the facility shall revert to 9% per annum (all-inclusive) with effect from March 1, 2021.

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Loan Tenor and Moratorium

The manufacturers, processors, wholesale distributors, will have term loans which shall have a maximum tenor of 10 years (not exceeding December 31, 2030) with a maximum of a 2-year moratorium on principal repayment only. The working capital facility of 1 year with a maximum rollover of not more than twice, subject to prior approval.

The small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and retail distributors will have term loans that shall have a maximum tenor of 5 years (not exceeding December 31, 2030) with a maximum of 2 years on principal repayment only. The working capital facility of 1 year with a maximum rollover of not more than twice and subject to prior approval.

This new initiative involves getting many vehicles to run on gas by collaborating with investors to build the required infrastructure such as pipelines and petrol stations. It is also expected to help accelerate the use of natural gas and end gas flaring.

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