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COVID-19: Best and worst case scenarios for the Nigerian economy

The worst-case scenario is if the world does not find a vaccine in the next fifteen months.

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A series of unfortunate developments have been working together to shape the Nigerian economy, albeit in a bad way. And things could get worse, unless certain actions are quickly taken to mitigate these unfavourable incidents.

This is the summary of a presentation by Cheta Nwanze, the Lead Partner at SBM Intelligence, who was part of a set of vibrant panelists that spoke during Nairametrics’ second-quarter 2020 economic outlook. The event, which took place virtually on Saturday, was centered on the topic: “The New Normal – Economic Outlook: Your Money or your Life.”

According to Nwanze, the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a public health crisis in Nigeria, a situation that was quickly followed by economic instability. The drastic drop in oil price, Nigeria’s major source of foreign exchange, only complicated the situation.

READ ALSO: Experts outline what SMEs must do to attract fund, investors in 2020 

While other countries like the US responded to the crisis by doling out trillions of dollars as palliatives, Nigeria offered very little relief. The country was also further plagued by a worsening inflation rate and civil unrest/security challenges. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had since predicted a global recession, expected to exceed 3%.

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Nigeria was not prepared to handle COVID-19 and its fallouts

Speaking further during his presentation, Nwanze compared Nigeria’s response to the pandemic with countries such as South Africa and India. According to him, Nigeria’s initial COVID-19 curve was particularly similar to India’s.

But this changed over time because Nigeria had only been able to test a very limited number of its citizens, a situation that led to fewer cases being discovered. That was unlike India which ramped up its testing efforts. Notwithstanding, the negative economic effects of the pandemic had continued to be very pronounced in Africa’s most populous country.

“However, the economic effect is still there, whether the cases are low or not. And it shows the state’s preparedness; this chart is very important…the preparedness of the Nigerian state. Basically, this chart was derived by taking certain factors into consideration – doctor to population ratio, human development index, infant mortality, per capita budget, percentage of budget spent on health; that’s a very important thing which many people don’t look at in this country.

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“After looking at all these, you find that the best prepared Nigerian state is supposed to be Cross River which is not even up to 60% ready for anything. Basically, Nigeria on a state level is not ready to handle the effect of this pandemic.”

READ MORE: Fending off Recession in Nigeria: Experts Offer some Advice to Presidency

Civil unrest and violence have been major problems

In addition to the fatalities caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and an earlier Lassa fever outbreak in the year, Nigeria has also been grappling with the fatalities caused by unrest in the country’s North-Eastern region.

According to Nwanze, hundreds of violent deaths were reported across North-Eastern Nigeria. In the same vein, kidnapping remained a major security challenge in the country, he noted. Unfortunately, a bad security situation never facilitates the economy of any country.

Focus on Nigeria’s inflation problem

Moving on, Nwanze noted that Nigeria’s inflation had gone up to an all-time high. In reaction to that, interest rates had gone down, just as capital importation was down. In the same vein, the exchange rate and the country’s external reserves down were also down. One of the implications of all that was the fact that Nigeria’s federal allocations were increasingly becoming smaller. He explained the impact of that in the quote below:

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“Looking at the chart, what immediately jumps out is that on the average, FAAC allocations are getting smaller. There’s a session that we had a higher share in March of 2020. But what people need to bear in mind is that these figures you are looking at are naira figures.

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“And there was a devaluation in between February and March. So, because of that devaluation, the March figures appear to be higher. But if you convert everything to USD at the prevailing rates of such sharing, you will find that the money is actually consistently getting smaller.

“This again has implications in terms of social unrest, security, and the larger economy. States don’t have as much money. It means that some states will just go straight up and owe staff. Some states will downsize, and the bottom line is that the unemployment market is going to get much larger.”

READ ALSO: COVID-19: Short-term reforms needed to reduce impacts on the Nigerian economy -NESG

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Global recession to hit hard

He also spoke a bit more extensively about the global recession that was forecast by the IMF. He noted that the 2020 recession is expected to have a far greater negative impact than the 2008 global economic crunch as well as the 2016 recession. Similarly, the World Trade Organisation had predicted that global trade would decline by 32%. Again, that will be worse than what was experienced during the 2008 global financial crisis.

Back home in Nigeria, the recession is expected to impact on people’s spending habits. He noted that research had shown that Nigerians typically spend more than 50% of their incomes on food. The nature of the situation is such that the lesser one’s income, the more likely they are to spend more on food than anything else. The implication, therefore, is that people would normally not have enough money for other important things such as investments. And that is not good for the economy.

Sectors that will be most affected

As the global recession looms, sectors of the Nigerian economy that are expected to be hit the hardest are: the banking industry, construction, travel and leisure, entertainment, automotive, luxury goods, oil and gas, trade, and transportation. He noted that those sectors were all major employers of labour in Nigeria.

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Speaking further, Nwanze stressed that Nigeria needed to come up with serious actions that would help mitigate the effects of the pandemic. He also examined the best-case scenario and the worst-case scenario.

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Best and worst-case scenarios

The best-case scenario which, according to him had the lowest probability, would be if the world finds a vaccine within the next three to six months. This would allow Nigerians to fully resume back to work. A possible vaccine discovery would also help oil prices to rebound, a situation that would be favourable to the GDP and economy at large.

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The worst-case scenario, on the other hand, would be if the world does not find a vaccine in the next 15 months. If that happened, infection rates would most likely spike and the government might have to adopt more drastic lockdown measures in a bid to contain the virus. This would be bad for the economy, he stated.

Emmanuel is a professional writer and business journalist, with interests covering Banking & Finance, Mergers and Acquisitions, Corporate Profiles, Brand Communication, Fintech, and MSMEs. He initially joined Nairametrics as an all-round Business Analyst, but later began focusing on and covering the financial services sector. He has also held various leadership roles, including Senior Editor, QAQC Lead, and Deputy Managing Editor. Emmanuel holds an M.Sc in International Relations from the University of Ibadan, graduating with Distinction. He also graduated with a Second Class Honours (Upper Division) from the Department of Philosophy & Logic, University of Ibadan. If you have a scoop for him, you may contact him via his email- [email protected] You may also contact him through various social media platforms, preferably LinkedIn and Twitter.

2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. Oyetunji Kuforiji

    May 19, 2020 at 11:13 am

    Based on the current reality, there’s need to look at remittances from Diaspora which has been the largest contributor to the economy since 2015. Is it capable of bailing the economy by stimulating the aggregate demand? I sincerely believe so. Consequently income tax will be placed in a good position in shaping the fiscal policy.

  2. Ifeanyi Ekwegbalu

    May 20, 2020 at 6:49 am

    It’s obvious we ain’t getting the vaccine so soon but then Govt. should help in the following ways.
    1. Review downwards or put a hold on income tax so as to increase spending limit of salary earners.
    2. Tax incentives for our importers which will reduce cost of goods marginally.
    3. CBN intervention in FX supply and demand.
    4. Fiscal and monetary policies that will reduce inflation rate.

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Coronavirus

COVID-19: Jason Njoku and wife test positive

iROKOtv CEO and wife have contracted the novel coronavirus.

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Jason Njoku and Wife testes positive to Covid-19

Jason Chukwuma Njoku, the co-founder and CEO of iROKOtv and his wife has tested positive for COVID-19. However, Mrs. Mary Njoku is feeling well.

Jason,  disclosed this via his Twitter handle stating that “My enemies are hard at work in 2020. Mrs. Njoku and I tested positive for Covid-19. I’m not feeling great, but Mary is well. Literally no idea how I caught it. But we shall see this pass too.”

The media mogul did not reveal if his children caught the virus too.

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Coronavirus

Covid-19: Russia applies to WHO for emergency use tag for its vaccine

Russia has submitted applications to the World Health Organization for approval of its COVID-19 vaccine, Sputnik V.

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COVID-19 vaccine from Russia

The Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), which is one of the developers of the Sputnik V, has submitted applications to the World Health Organization (WHO) for an Emergency Use Listing and prequalification of the coronavirus vaccine.

The acceptance of the Covid-19 vaccine by the UN health agency could help allay concerns over its safety and quality.

This was disclosed by Russia’s sovereign wealth fund on Tuesday, October 27, 2020.

READ: WHO endorses emergency use of China’s COVID-19 vaccine

READ: Covid-19: AstraZeneca vaccine gets huge boost, produces immune response in elderly

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Russia was the first country to grant regulatory approval for a novel coronavirus vaccine and did so before large-scale trials were complete, stirring concerns among scientists and doctors about the safety and efficacy of the shot, especially from the western countries.

An Emergency Use Listing (EUL) is meant to make a vaccine available globally faster, while a WHO prequalification is a global quality tag that ensures vaccines are safe and effective.

READ: Crude oil prices post losses, fears on surge in COVID-19 caseloads strengthen

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READ: Moderna to get desired result for final COVID-19 vaccine trials in 5 months

The Chief Executive Officer of RDIF, Kirill Dmitriev, in a statement, pointed out that the procedures would allow Sputnik V to be included in the list of medical products that meet leading quality, safety and efficacy standards.

In July, Dmitriev had said that Russia aimed to produce 30 million doses in 2020, a goal that was this month dubbed impossible by Russia’s Industry Minister, Denis Manturov, who said a maximum of 2.3 million doses would be made.

The vaccine, developed by Moscow’s Gamaleya Research Institute and marketed by RDIF, is based on a platform of human adenoviral vectors.

READ: Covid-19: US FDA grants full approval to remdesivir as first vaccine to treat coronavirus

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What you should know

Nairametrics had earlier reported that President Vladimir Putin announced the approval of the Sputnik V, as the first Covid-19 vaccine to be registered in the world. The approval, which was announced even before the completion of the phase 3 trials, had elicited safety concerns from scientists.

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Coronavirus

COVID-19 Update in Nigeria

On the 27th of October 2020, 113 new confirmed cases and 3 deaths were recorded in Nigeria

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The spread of novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) in Nigeria continues to record significant increases as the latest statistics provided by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control reveal Nigeria now has 62,224 confirmed cases.

On the 27th of October 2020, 113 new confirmed cases and 3 deaths were recorded in Nigeria, having carried out a total daily test of 2,326 samples across the country.

To date, 62,224 cases have been confirmed, 57,916 cases have been discharged and 1,135 deaths have been recorded in 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. A total of 614,480 tests have been carried out as of October 27th, 2020 compared to 612,154 tests a day earlier.

COVID-19 Case Updates- 27th October 2020,

  • Total Number of Cases – 62,224
  • Total Number Discharged – 57,916
  • Total Deaths – 1,1135
  • Total Tests Carried out – 614,480

According to the NCDC, the 113 new cases were reported from 12 states- Lagos (51), FCT (15), Plateau (11), Kaduna (8), Oyo (8), Rivers (8), Ogun (4), Edo (2), Imo (2), Kwara (2), Delta (1), Kano (1).

Meanwhile, the latest numbers bring Lagos state total confirmed cases to 20,935, followed by Abuja (6,008), Plateau (3,614), Oyo (3,433), Rivers (2,781), Edo (2,654), Kaduna (2,625), Ogun (2,014), Delta (1,813), Kano (1,743), Ondo (1,666), Enugu (1,314),  Kwara (1,069), Ebonyi (1,049), Katsina (952), Osun (923), Abia (898), Gombe (883).  Borno (745), and Bauchi (710).

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Imo State has recorded 616 cases, Benue (486), Nasarawa (479), Bayelsa (403),  Ekiti (332), Jigawa (325), Akwa Ibom (295), Anambra (277), Niger (274), Adamawa (257), Sokoto (165), Taraba (140), Kebbi (93), Cross River (87), Yobe (82), Zamfara (79), while Kogi state has recorded 5 cases only.

READ ALSO: COVID-19: Western diplomats warn of disease explosion, poor handling by government

Lock Down and Curfew

In a move to combat the spread of the pandemic disease, President Muhammadu Buhari directed the cessation of all movements in Lagos and the FCT for an initial period of 14 days, which took effect from 11 pm on Monday, 30th March 2020.

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The movement restriction, which was extended by another two-weeks period, has been partially put on hold with some businesses commencing operations from May 4. On April 27th, 2020, Nigeria’s President, Muhammadu Buhari declared an overnight curfew from 8 pm to 6 am across the country, as part of new measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19. This comes along with the phased and gradual easing of lockdown measures in FCT, Lagos, and Ogun States, which took effect from Saturday, 2nd May 2020, at 9 am.

On Monday, 29th June 2020 the federal government extended the second phase of the eased lockdown by 4 weeks and approved interstate movement outside curfew hours with effect from July 1, 2020. Also, on Monday 27th July 2020, the federal government extended the second phase of eased lockdown by an additional one week.

On Thursday, 6th August 2020 the federal government through the secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) and Chairman of the Presidential Task Force (PTF) on COVID-19 announced the extension of the second phase of eased lockdown by another four (4) weeks.

READ ALSO: Bill Gates says Trump’s WHO funding suspension is dangerous

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