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Nigeria’s inflation rose to 11.37% in April, after 3 months decline

The consumer price index, which measures inflation, rose to 11.37% in April 2019, according to the monthly inflation report released by @nigerianstat. The rise in April’s inflation rate represents the first time inflation increased in three months.

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Nigeria's inflation rate, Headline inflation jumps to 11.61% in October on border closure

The consumer price index, which measures inflation, rose to 11.37% in April 2019, according to the monthly inflation report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

According to the NBS report, year-on-year, inflation increased by 0.12% points higher than the 11.25% rate recorded in March 2019.

Also, month-on-month, the headline index increased by 0.94 percent in April 2019, representing a 0.15 percent rate higher than the rate recorded in March 2019.

Food and other items index rose: The composite food index rose by 13.70 percent in April, compared to the 13.45 percent recorded in the previous month. The NBS stated that the rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Meat, Fish, Oils/fats, Bread/Cereals, Fish, Milk, Cheese, egg, Potatoes, yam, and other tubers, Fruits and vegetables.

Similarly, food sub-index increased by 1.14 percent for the month under review, up by 0.26 percent points from 0.88 percent recorded in March. On the other hand, core inflation (all item less farm produce) dropped to 9.3 percent, down by 0.2% when compared with 9.5 percent recorded in March.

The Bureau provided further insight into items that recorded the highest increase in inflation, specifically, some of the items include Medical services, Hospital services, Dental Services, Tobacco, Vehicle spare parts, Major household appliances, etc.

States Inflation rose up in the north:  In the month of April, northern states recorded the highest inflation on all items. The top three states with the highest inflation rate include Kebbi, Bauchi, and Zanfara. On the other hand, Abia, Delta, and Cross River recorded the slowest inflation rise in headline year on year inflation.

Similarly, food inflation data shows that Kaduna, Kebbi, and Kwara States recorded the highest rise inflation on year on year basis, While Rivers, Bayelsa, and Kogi States all recorded the slowest rise inflation.

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Urban Inflation spikes: In the month of April, urban inflation rate increased to 11.70 percent year on year basis from 11.54 percent recorded in March. On the other hand, rural inflation increased to 11.08 percent, up from 10.99 percent in March.

Month on month basis, the urban index also rose by 1 percent faster than rural inflation. Specifically, urban inflation up by 0.19 from 0.81 percent recorded in March, while on the other hand rural inflation index rose by 0.9, up from 0.3 percent recorded in the previous month.

Optics: The rise in April’s inflation rate represents the first time inflation increased in three months. Note that inflation has dropped for three consecutive months, from 11.37 percent in December, to 11.25 percent in March 2019. However, the new inflation is just the same rate recorded in December (11.37%)

As inflation inches up after dropping for three months, it implies all affected items captured by the Bureau witnessed a quick rise in terms of prices. It is important to note that food price spikes tend to be more temporal which is mostly triggered by shortages in supply, in relation to demand.

The rise in inflation rate is against analysts’ predictions that there will a drop in inflation in the month of April. For instance, FSDH Merchant Bank Limited earlier forecasted that inflation rate is expected to drop for the fourth consecutive month in April. Meanwhile, the rise in inflation rate is consistent with Nairametrics earlier report that business owners expect inflation maintain double digit in the next one year.

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Upshots: As stated earlier, the spike in inflation rate for April 2019, for instance, means a quick rise in prices. The rise in food index was caused by increases in prices of Meat, Fish, Oils/fats, Bread and Cereals, Fish, Milk, Cheese an egg, Potatoes, yam, and other tubers, Fruits and vegetables.

Hence, the spike in inflation implies that businesses revenue may slightly deplete as the purchasing power of consumers drops, while this may also worsen export and growth for the period under review. Just as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that Nigeria must keep inflation down to maximize full potential.

Controlling inflation is seen as a healthy stimulus for the economy as a whole, but it can also be quite challenging to keep in check. Spike in inflation for the month suggests that small businesses should remain mindful of its effects.

Although,  large organizations are generally better-positioned to bear the brunt of inflation, as it can be offset by savings generated through economies of scale. However, small firms, often take a direct hit on margin. A slight increase could hurt capital expenditure, increase the cost of production for goods and turnover of the company.

Read the full Bureau’s report here: NBS April 2019 Inflation Report

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Samuel is an Analyst with over 5 years experience. Connect with him via his twitter handle

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Business

FG explains why Lagos-Ibadan rail line was not linked to the sea

The government in its explanation said that the delay was due to disruption by trucks going in and out of the port complex.

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FG needs $656 million to complete Lagos-Ibadan railway project – Amaechi, Nigeria loses N150 billion annually to shipping tariffs, Ibadan to Kano rail construction

The Federal Government has stated why the China Civil Engineering Construction Company (CCECC) Nigeria Limited could not link the final part of the Lagos-Ibadan rail line to the sea.

The government in its explanation said that it was due to disruption by trucks going in and out of the port complex.

According to a press statement signed by the Director, Press and Public Relations of the Federal Ministry of Transportation, Eric Ojiekwe, this disclosure was made by the Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, while on a routine tour of the Lagos-Ibadan rail line project on Saturday, April 10, 2021.

The Minister pointed out that the original blueprint for the Lagos-Ibadan rail line project was not adhered to by CCECC Nigeria Limited and TEAM consortium and therefore warned that the master plan of the soon to commence Ibadan-Kano rail line project should not be changed.

The statement from the ministry partly reads, “The Nigerian Government has restated its commitment to connect the whole country by rail with the soon to commence Ibadan-Kano Standard Gauge Rail project.”

Amaechi forewarned that the master plan of the soon to commence project should not be changed as the original blueprint for the Lagos-Ibadan wasn’t adhered to by Messrs CCECC Nigeria and TEAM consortium. The Minister who rode the train from Ebute-Meta to the 8.72 km Apapa Port Spur line, informed the media that the inability of Messrs CCECC Nigeria to link the final part of the rail line down to the sea is rather due to disruption by trucks going in and out of the port complex.’’

The Minister had noted that the Federal Government has paid its share of the counterpart funding of the Ibadan-Kano rail line project and is waiting for China-Exim bank to ratify its side of the agreement for the project to commence.

He also advised the Nigerian Railway Corporation (NRC) to acquire more land around the train stations and the rail tracks for future development adding that this will be near impossible to do in the future as whatever space available now would have been taken over by businesses attracted to the rail line.

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In case you missed it

It can be recalled that full commercial train services commenced on the Lagos-Ibadan rail line after train operations commenced on December 7, 2020, with only Lagos, Ibadan and Abeokuta residents enjoying the train services.

This is because other minor and major stations along that route were yet to be completed.

 

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Manufacturing

Industrial Index loses -12.39 points, as BUA and Lafarge Cement shares top losers list

The NSE Industrials index lost 12.39 index points in the first trading week in the month of April.

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Manufacturing: Activity levels pick up albeit readings still below water

The Nigerian Stock Exchange Industrial Index at the close of trading activities for the first week in the month of April closed on a bearish note, following a 0.66% decrease in the shares of BUA CEMENT and Lafarge.

At the close of trading activities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange on the 9th of April 2021, the industrial index depreciated by 55.01 index points, to close lower at 1,928.18 index points for the week.

When compared to the overall performance of the market, the NSE Industrial index underperformed, noting that the NSE All-Share Index and Market Capitalization depreciated by 0.66% to close the week at 38,866.39 and N20.3350 trillion respectively.

READ: COVID-19, VAT, FX scarcity adversely impacted our operations in 2020 – Nigerian Breweries boss says

What you should know

The NSE Industrial Index was designed to provide an investable benchmark to capture the performance of the Industrial Sector. It comprises the most capitalized and liquid companies in the industrial sector and is based on the market capitalization methodology.

The index tracks the performance of ten industrial companies on the Nigerian Stock Exchange which includes Dangote, BUA, and Lafarge Cement.

The overall performance of the companies for the week was bearish, as the index closed on a negative note driven by the decrease in the share price of BUA Cement and Lafarge.

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MEYER (19.51) was the only gainer for the week, while BUACEMENT (-1.09%) and LAFARGE WAPCO (-3.00%) were the only losers for the week.

GAINER

  • MEYER up by19.51% to close at N0.49.

LOSER

  • WAPCO down by -3.00% to close at N21.00.
  • BUACEMENT down by -1.09% to close at N72.70.

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