Welcome to daily summary of the performance of major economic indicators and highlights from tradings sessions and key statistics such as Treasury Bills, bonds, FX rates, inflation, oil price.
This report is dated April 25th, 2019.
The FGN Bond market traded on a weak note as investors reacted to the new issues at the monthly FGN auction held the previous day. Yields in the secondary market expanded by c.7bps on the average across the benchmark bond curve, notably at the mid- to long-end of the curve.
We however noted demand for the new 30-year maturity, April 2049, as 1-way trades showed yields compress by c.10bps from its opening yield. We expect the market to be order driven with some client demand expected to take advantage of yields available at the long-end of the curve.
The T-bills market maintained its bullish run, albeit at a reduced pace, supported by increased system liquidity from OMO maturities. Investors looked to the secondary market to reinvest their funds as the CBN did not float an auction to mop up the inflows. Yields consequently compressed by c.10bps on the average, with demand witnessed across the benchmark NTBill curve.
We expect market activity to oscillate in tandem with the level of liquidity in the Money Market in the near term, as the CBN is expected to float an OMO auction manage excess liquidity from the anticipated monthly FAAC inflows.
Money Market rates continued to decline following inflows via OMO maturities of c.N46bn. OBB and OVN rates closed the session at 6.14% and 7.29% respectively in the absence of an OMO auction by the CBN. System liquidity is estimated at c.N275Bn positive as at close of business.
With FAAC inflows expected to hit the system, we expect the CBN to mop up excess cash via OMO auction, Retail FX and Monthly FGN Bond auction sales and this should move rates upwards to close the week.
At the Interbank Market, the Naira/USD rate remained stable at N306.90/$ (Spot) while the NAFEX closing rate in the I&E window depreciated slightly by 0.11% to N360.69/$. Market turnover improved again by 4.73% DoD to $274m. At the parallel market, the cash rate and transfer rates remained unchanged at N358.50/$ and N362.50/$ respectively.
Emerging markets saw declines in prices across board as election polls increased concerns of default for Argentina’s sovereign debt. This, combined with a strong USD (which posted its biggest two-day in almost six-months), saw the NGERIA Sovereigns lose c.10bps across the curve as investors traded EM debt cautiously.
The NGERIA Corps were less volatile on the day, as we saw demand on the FBNNL 21s, ACCESS 21s, UBANL 22s and ZENITH 22s during the trading session.
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Whilst proper and reasonable care has been taken in the preparation and accuracy of the facts and figures presented in this report, no responsibility or liability is accepted by Zedcrest Capital or its employees for any error, omission or opinion expressed herein. This report is not an investment research or a research recommendation and should not be regarded as such. The information provided herein is by no means intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision.