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Nigeria’s PMI remains positive for the 24th consecutive month

However, the business activity index grew at a slower rate 57.8 points for the twenty-fourth consecutive, indicating contraction in non-manufacturing sector.

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The latest manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) covering the month of March 2019, indicates that Nigeria’s manufacturing sector expanded for the 24th consecutive month.

This is reflected in the PMI Survey Report released by Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

Just as in previous months, the manufacturing PMI for March 2019 stood at 57.4 index point, well above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction in business conditions. This indicates robust growth in the private sector.

Basic PMI Highlights 

  • The Manufacturing sector shows expansion as PMI in the month of March stood at 57.4 index points
  • The Non-manufacturing Sector also expanded with the composite PMI at 58.5 points in March 2019
  • The production level index for the manufacturing sector grew faster and witnessed sustained growth for the 25th consecutive month in March 2019.
  • Business activity for the non-manufacturing sector contracted with the index growing slowly for the 24th consecutive month

Manufacturing PMI grew for the 24th consecutive month

The Manufacturing PMI in the month of March stood at 57.4 index points, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 24th consecutive month. The index grew at a faster rate when compared to the index in the previous month.

Growing sub-sectors

Out of the 14 sub-sectors surveyed in the review month, 11 sub-sectors witnessed growth in the following order: cement; food, beverage & tobacco products; fabricated metal products; furniture & related products and paper products.

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Also, chemical & pharmaceutical products; plastics & rubber products; electrical equipment; printing & related support activities; transportation equipment and nonmetallic mineral products all recorded growth in the review period.

Declining Sub-sectors

The Textile, apparel, leather & footwear; Petroleum & coal products and primary metal sub-sectors recorded decline in the review period.

Some breakdown of Manufacturing PMI

Production Level index for the manufacturing sector grew at 58.3 points for the twenty-fifth consecutive month in March 2019. The index indicated a faster growth in the current month when compared to its level in the month of February 2019.

New Orders for the review period recorded 56.7 points index, growth for the twenty-fourth consecutive month, indicating an increase in new orders in March 2019.

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The manufacturing supplier delivery time index stood at 58.4 points in March 2019, indicating faster supplier delivery time. The index has recorded growth for twenty-second consecutive months.

Employment Level index for March 2019 stood at 56.9 points, indicating growth in employment level for the twenty-third consecutive month.

Raw material Inventories index for the Manufacturing sector grew for the twenty-fourth consecutive month in March 2019. At 57.1 points, the index grew at a faster rate when compared to its level in February 2019.

Non-Manufacturing PMI up for the 23rd consecutive month

The composite PMI for the non-manufacturing sector stood at 58.5 points in March 2019, indicating expansion in the Non-manufacturing PMI for the 23rd consecutive month. The index grew at a faster rate when compared to that in February 2019.

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Growing Sectors 

Out of the 17 surveyed subsectors, 14 sectors recorded growth in the following order: utilities; health care & social assistance; agriculture; information & communication; real estate, rental & leasing; repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles; construction. Also, educational services; wholesale trade; finance & insurance; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply; professional, scientific, & technical services; accommodation & food services and water supply and sewage & waste management all recorded growth.

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Transport Subsector remain unchanged while others decline

The Non-manufacturing PMI shows that transportation & warehousing remained unchanged while management of companies and arts, entertainment & recreation declined for the period under review.

Some Breakdown of Non-Manufacturing PMI

Business Activity index grew 57.8 points for the twenty-fourth consecutive month at a slower rate, indicating contraction in non-manufacturing business activity in March 2019.

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New orders index grew at 58.9 points for the twenty-fourth consecutive month in March 2019.

The employment level Index for the non-manufacturing sector stood at 59.5 points, indicating growth in employment for the twenty-third consecutive month.

At 59.5 points, non-manufacturing inventory index grew for the twenty-third consecutive month, indicating growth in inventories in the review period.

Nigerian economy on the growth path

Just yesterday, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) announced a surprise cut in the monetary policy rate (PMR) from 14% to 13.5%. The surprise cut by the CBN has been greeted by investors as a welcome move.

However, analysts opined that the cut in MPR may not create much stimulus on the economy. According to the CBN, the economy is recovering and on the growth path.

In the communique read by the CBN Governor, Mr. Emefiele, it stated

“The Committee welcomed the continued positive sentiments in the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for the 24th and 23rdconsecutive months in March 2019.

“The increase in both measures of PMI was driven by increases in production, employment, raw material inventories and new orders.”

The MPC reiterated the improved outlook on Nigeria economy was attributable to the continued stability in the foreign exchange market, various interventions by the Bank in the real sector and the effective implementation of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) by the Federal Government.

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Samuel is an Analyst with over 5 years experience. Connect with him via his twitter handle

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Coronavirus

COVID-19 Update in Nigeria

On the 16th of January 2021, 1,598 new confirmed cases and 7 deaths were recorded in Nigeria

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The spread of novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) in Nigeria continues to record significant increases as the latest statistics provided by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control reveal Nigeria now has 108,943 confirmed cases.

On the 16th of January 2021, 1,598 new confirmed cases and 7 deaths were recorded in Nigeria.

To date, 108,943 cases have been confirmed, 85,367 cases have been discharged and 1,420 deaths have been recorded in 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. A total of 1.13 million tests have been carried out as of January 16th, 2021 compared to 1.03 million tests a day earlier.

COVID-19 Case Updates- 16th January 2021,

  • Total Number of Cases – 108,943
  • Total Number Discharged – 85,367
  • Total Deaths – 1,420
  • Total Tests Carried out – 1,135,535

According to the NCDC, the 1,598 new cases were reported from 24 states- Lagos (461), FCT (206), Plateau (197), Rivers (168), Kaduna (116), Anambra (53), Ogun (49), Ebonyi (47), Edo (42), Sokoto (32), Imo (31), Katsina (31), Oyo (30), Akwa Ibom (27), Delta (16), Kano (16), Abia (15), Niger (15), Ondo (11), Bayelsa (10), Borno (9), Kebbi (8), Ekiti (7), Jigawa (1).

Meanwhile, the latest numbers bring Lagos state total confirmed cases to 39,723, followed by Abuja (14,544), Plateau (6,617), Kaduna (6,121),  Oyo (4,679), Rivers (4,382), Edo (3,246), Ogun (2,831), Kano (2,577), Delta (2,102), Ondo (2,070), Katsina (1,723), Enugu (1,583), Kwara (1,566), Gombe (1,489), Nasarawa (1,269), Ebonyi (1,206), Osun (1,186),  Abia (1,129), and Bauchi (1,107).

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Borno State has recorded 859 cases, Imo (841), Sokoto (677), Benue (653), Akwa Ibom (615), Bayelsa (608), Niger (547), Adamawa (540), Anambra (513), Ekiti (466), Jigawa (425), Taraba (258), Kebbi (248), Yobe (207), Cross River (169),  Zamfara (162), while Kogi state has recorded 5 cases only.

READ ALSO: COVID-19: Western diplomats warn of disease explosion, poor handling by government

Lock Down and Curfew

In a move to combat the spread of the pandemic disease, President Muhammadu Buhari directed the cessation of all movements in Lagos and the FCT for an initial period of 14 days, which took effect from 11 pm on Monday, 30th March 2020.

The movement restriction, which was extended by another two weeks period, has been partially put on hold with some businesses commencing operations from May 4. On April 27th, 2020, Nigeria’s President, Muhammadu Buhari declared an overnight curfew from 8 pm to 6 am across the country, as part of new measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19. This comes along with the phased and gradual easing of lockdown measures in FCT, Lagos, and Ogun States, which took effect from Saturday, 2nd May 2020, at 9 am.

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On Monday, 29th June 2020 the federal government extended the second phase of the eased lockdown by 4 weeks and approved interstate movement outside curfew hours with effect from July 1, 2020. Also, on Monday 27th July 2020, the federal government extended the second phase of eased lockdown by an additional one week.

On Thursday, 6th August 2020 the federal government through the secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) and Chairman of the Presidential Task Force (PTF) on COVID-19 announced the extension of the second phase of eased lockdown by another four (4) weeks.

Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State announced the closed down of the Eti-Osa Isolation Centre, with effect from Friday, 31st July 2020. He also mentioned that the Agidingbi Isolation Centre would also be closed and the patients relocated to a large capacity centre.

Due to the increased number of covid-19 cases in Nigeria, the Nigerian government ordered the reopening of Isolation and treatment centres in the country on Thursday, 10th December 2020.

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READ ALSO: Bill Gates says Trump’s WHO funding suspension is dangerous

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Economy & Politics

Uganda Elections: Museveni re-elected for 6th term with 58.6% of the votes

Uganda’s President Museveni has won a 6th term in office as the opposition alleges wide-scale rigging.

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The President of Uganda, Yoweri Museveni, has been re-elected as President, gathering 5.85 million votes compared to 3.48 million votes by main opposition leader, Robert Kyagulanyi, a.k.a Bobi Wine.

According to Reuters, this victory represents 58.6% of the vote cast while Bobi Wine got 34.8%

Bobi Wine announced that the election results show this is the most fraudulent election in the history of Uganda and urged his followers to reject the result.

What you should know

  • Yoweri Museveni, aged 76, has been President of the East African nation since 1986.
  • Bobi Wine claimed via his official Twitter handle that military men jumped over his fence and took control of his home yesterday.

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Coronavirus

Combined Vaccine Manufacturing capacity to hit 6.8 billion doses in 2021

COVID-19 vaccine manufacturing capacity is expected to hit 6.8 billion doses in 2021.

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Covid-19: First world nations oppose waiving intellectual rights for vaccine development

Meristem Group disclosed that the combined effort in manufacturing COVID-19 vaccines for global use is expected to yield about 6.8 billion doses in 2021.

This was revealed in the Annual Outlook 2021 report presented by Meristem Group, titled Bracing for a different future.”

According to the report, the existing manufacturing capacity will only be sufficient enough to immunize about 44% of the global population, which would create obvious vaccination gap and make the pandemic last longer than necessary.

The report states,

  • The cold temperature requirements for vaccine storage pose major logistics concern particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and other low-income countries. WHO estimates that about 50% of vaccines are wasted every year, largely due to a lack of temperature control.”

According to the report, the estimated 6.8billion doses are expected to be collaboratively manufactured as follows:  CanSino – 0.2billion, AstraZeneca – 3.0 billion, Gamaleya – 0.3billion, Moderna – 0.4billion, Pfizer-BioNtech – 1.3billion, SinoPharm – 1billion, and SinoVac – 0.6billion.

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What you should know

  • The global population as of 2020 is 7.8billion and 70% is required to achieve herd immunity (otherwise called herd protection)
  • Herd Immunity or herd protection is achieved when you have most of the population immunized against an infectious disease.
  • 2 doses of the vaccines are required for each person for immunity.
  • It is expected that between 11 and 15 billion doses would be required to achieve the desired herd immunity, globally.
  • From all indications, herd immunity may not be achieved until mid or late 2022, with the subsisting 100% vaccine production capacity utilization in 2021 – with neither production nor distribution losses.
  • To achieve regulatory approval, a vaccine must undergo a three-stage clinical development process after the exploratory and pre-clinical stages and the U.S Food and Drug Administration (FDA) sets a phase 3 efficacy benchmark of 50%.

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