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Nigeria Weekly Update: Focus on P&ID’s threat to the Nigerian economy

Welcome to the Nigeria weekly update on treasury bills, bonds, crude prices, equities, and other macroeconomic indicators…

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Market interest, Nigeria Weekly Update: A better NPL picture

Last week the potential threat posed to Nigeria’s public sector finances from a little-known law case, launched by a little-known natural gas company called Process and Industrial Developments, became apparent after it was a revealed that a London-based hedge fund manager has purchased a stake in the claim. See page 2.

Foreign Exchange

Last week, the NIFEX rate remained stable at NGN358.79/US$1. The NAFEX rate appreciated by 0.09% to NGN360.15/US$1. The US dollar in the NAFEX (inter-bank) market trades at a 0.38% premium to the NIFEX rate.

This month the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has injected US$357.9m into the NAFEX market which is low compared with the trend late last year. The CBN’s FX reserves currently stand at US$42.9bn. We reiterate our view in Coronation Research: Year Ahead 2019, A tale of two halves, 15 January, that FX reserves are sufficient to ensure Naira exchange rate stability in 2019.

Bonds & T-bills

The yield on a Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) Naira bond with 10 years to maturity fell by 7bps to 14.24%, and at 3 years rose by 6bps to 14.61%. The yield on a 364-day T-bill fell by 69bps to 14.34%. The yield on a T-bill with 3 months to maturity decreased by 58bps to 11.84%.

Last week Friday, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the inflation print for February with the rate dropping by 6bps m/m to 11.31% y/y. The fact that inflation more-or less held steady in February contrasted with earlier fears that election spending would force it up.

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Oil

The price of Brent rose by 2.16% last week to US$67.16/bbl. The average price, year-to-date, is US$63.09/bbl, 11.99% lower than the average of US$71.69/bbl in 2018, but 15.23% higher than the US$54.75/bbl average seen in 2017.

According to Reuters, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is set to scrap its planned meeting in April and decide on whether to prolong oil supply cuts through to June, when the market would be able to evaluate the full impact of U.S sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.

Equities

The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) All-Share Index recorded a loss of 2.45% last week, taking the year-to-date return to negative 0.92%. Last week Cadbury Nigeria (+9.09%), Sterling Bank (+6.38%) and Diamond Bank (+2.89%) closed positive while Zenith Bank (-11.02%) and International Breweries (-10.93%) fell. Last Monday Zenith Bank shares became ineligible for a N2.50 final dividend so the adjusted week-on-week decline was just 2.00%.

The equity market rallied 4.06% between the beginning of the year and February’s elections and has fallen 4.86% since. We maintain that there is value among selected stocks, particularly bank stocks.

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P&ID’s risk to Nigeria

The ongoing court case between Nigeria and an oil and gas firm, Process and Industrial Developments (P&ID), dates back to 2010. P&ID is reported to have entered into a contract with the Ministry of Petroleum Resources of the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) in 2010 and, according to reports, the agreement obliged P&ID to build a natural gas processing plant while the FGN would build pipelines to bring untreated gas to the plant (gas which is otherwise flared in the course of oil production). P&ID alleges that: it invested US$40m in the project (though it did not actually build a plant); the FGN did not build the pipelines specified in the agreement; it (P&ID) is entitled to compensation for lost earnings as a result; the governing law is English.

The original arbitration in an English court in favour of P&ID was upheld in 2017 with a final award of just under US$6.6bn (Naira 2.4 trillion at today’s exchange rate), though with interest accruing so that the award is currently referred to as close to US$9.0bn (N3.2tn). The English court award is being applied in the US courts. Lawyers for the FGN have argued that the FGN is protected under the Foreign Sovereign Immunity Act (FSIA) and the FGN has been given leave to appeal to the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.

It is not clear to us, at this stage, how the FGN’s appeal citing the FSIA has progressed. However, it was about the time of the FGN’s decision to use this defense that VR Capital Group was reported to have involved itself in the case by buying, according to Bloomberg (Friday, 8 March), a 25% stake in P&ID. The fact that VR Capital Group, a hedge fund specialising in distressed sovereign debt, has taken a stake in the claim underlines its seriousness, in our view.

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The FGN has several options open to it, in our view: it could either negotiate or borrow from the international market to pay the alleged liability. A potential award of this size could have serious implications for Nigeria’s fiscal position, borrowing costs and even its foreign exchange position, in our view, and represents a significant new risk. For comparison, the FGN’s 2019 budget (as currently proposed) is N8.8tn (US$24.4bn) and the foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) are US$42.9bn.

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If successful – and we emphasise that the FGN has appealed – then the FGN could be on the hook for a lot of money. The question, therefore, is to what extent a government feeling the pinch would be able to turn to the private sector for help. See Coronation Research: P&ID’s risk to Nigeria: Hedge fund purchase underscores fiscal, monetary risk, 14 March.


This report was contributed by Coronation Merchant Bank.

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Downstream players suffer revenue declines due to Covid-19, forex, fuel subsidy

2020 has no doubt been one of the most challenging years for players in the oil and gas downstream sector, having to deal with several issues.

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Nigeria’s downstream oil and gas players are in the midst of one of the lowest revenue declines in their history of operations. In an industry used to the highs and lows of economic and commodity price cycles, 2020 poses one of the greatest challenges to oil and gas companies.

Total Plc, 11 Plc, MRS, Ardova and Conoil are some of the major downstream players (all quoted) that have suffered revenue declines and margin drops in one of the worst years in modern history.

READ: Aviation: Nigerian ground handling firms count revenue losses due to pandemic-induced plunge

  • Conoil Plc, one of the major downstream players reported its 2020 9 months results revealing revenue declined 21.84% YoY t0 N88.1 billion.
  • 11Plc, another major player in the sector, also saw its topline revenues plummet from N141.5 billion in the first 9 months of 2019 to N114.7 billion in the corresponding period in 2020.
  • Total Nigeria Plc, one of the largest players in the downstream sector also recorded declining revenues. In 2019 it reported total sales of N181.6 billion compared to N117.3 billion in 2019. The 35% drop was the largest of the lot.
  • The only outlier of the lot was Ardova Petroleum which somehow managed to record revenue growth with 2020 9 months revenue rising to N116 billion compared to N110.7 billion same period the year before.

READ: Nigeria’s 5,000 BPD refinery will produce 271 million liters of petrol every year

In general, revenues for the major oil and gas downstream players in the country fell by a whopping 21% from N646.8 billion in 2019 (9M) to N514.2 billion in the corresponding period in 2020. What is to blame for these declines? Covid-19!

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The Covid-19 pandemic triggered a nationwide lockdown for most of 2020 that has negatively impacted demand for petroleum products across the country. The lockdown has grossly affected volumes for downstream oil and gas companies hitting their margins and profitability.

READ: Why listing of oil companies will stimulate industry growth – NCDMB

Businesses across the country such as manufacturers, airlines, restaurants, schools, the transportation sector and motor vehicle owners have all reduced their demand for fossil fuel.

The downstream sector has also struggled to take advantage of the drop in oil prices as they still need to deal with the multiple devaluation of the naira and being able to gain access to foreign exchange. Their inability to access the forex market leaves them with little choice but to continue to rely on NNPC, the sole importer of petroleum products for their inventories.

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READ: Jitters as Nigerian banks brace up for more loan provisioning

In a recent comment, the Chairman of Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria (DAPPMAN), Mrs. Winifred Akpani, lamented that “the inability to source FOREX from the official CBN FOREX window by independent marketers is continually hindering the effectiveness of the principles of DEMAND and SUPPLY market forces to correct the current inefficiencies in the pricing mechanisms adopted in the deregulation process.”

Mrs. Akpani also explained that inability of marketers to source FOREX creates a situation which can be described as “pseudo subsidy” in the market, suggesting that being forced to sell petroleum products at fixed prices means they cannot recover their importation cost, most of which is paid for in US dollars.

READ: FG gives reason oil marketers are not yet importing petrol, stops monthly price fixing

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This is further exacerbated by the fact that the federal government regulates pricing irrespective of the unique operating costs of these private oil companies. Also, being the sole importer of petroleum products means the NNPC will likely pass on inefficiencies in managing cost to petroleum marketers, eliminating any chances of efficient pricing that can be obtained from increased competition. The effects of these are low profit margins and ‘never-shifting’ revenue positions, except for exceptional cases.

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READ: Has petroleum product deregulation finally come to roost?

Last December, the Federal Government revealed it was ending its subsidy programme, increasing fuel to reflect its market cost. However, it balked after pressure from the labour unions, reducing prices without recourse to sector players.

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Despite these challenges, the sector will likely eke out some profits largely due to cost cutting initiatives and income from ancillary businesses. However, dividend payment might be a challenge as it will be advisable for these companies to set aside cash for what could be a pivotal year.

READ: Nigeria to import petroleum products from Niger Republic, sign MoU on transportation, storage

The Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) will likely be signed into law this year and will produce new investment opportunities for the downstream sector if things go as planned. The government will likely relinquish its hold on the sector and fully deregulate the downstream before the end of the year.

When it does, those with a strong balance sheet will be winners.

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Notore Chemicals is swimming in debts – company to access equity market in Q2 2021

Notore is swimming in debts and this will stifle any chances of profitability at least in the short to medium term.

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The story of Nigeria’s 24-year privatisation journey cannot be complete without mentioning the National Fertilizer Company of Nigeria (NAFCON), established in 1981 to produce and sell fertilizer.

The company began fertilizer production 6 years after it was incorporated, followed by years of mismanagement and corruption which forced the company to shut down 11 years later in 1999. The company resurrected again in 2005 following its privatisation, resulting in a sale of $152 million to new owners and then rebranding itself to Notore Chemicals.

READ: Agriculture: AfDB to invest $25 billion in Nigeria, Senegal, 3 others

Today, the company manufactures, treats, processes, produces, supplies, and deals in nitrogenous fertilizer and all substances suited to improving the fertility of soil and water. The Company has a 500,000 metric tonne Urea Plant in Onne, Rivers State, Nigeria, generating circa N18.7 billion (2019: N21.4 billion) in revenues as reported in its 2020 audited accounts for the period ended September 30, 2020.

In 2020, the company embarked on a massive Turn Around Maintenance (TAM) programme for its plants, which it targets will help boost its production levels to 500,000MT nameplate design capacity. The company further claims that 70% of the revenue earned from the operation of the plant post TAM filter into its bottom line, hence boosting profitability.

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READ: FG announce registration of 5 million farmers for fertilizer subsidy

The importance of its TAM cannot be overemphasized. Notore earns 97% of its revenues from fertilizer sale of Urea and other chemicals. About 17% of the revenues are generated from export, thus the potential is there to improve sales and perhaps bottom line locally and within Africa.

But to achieve its TAM plans, Notore has doubled down on its debt binge. Total borrowing for the year spiked from N79.9 billion in 2019 to N108.3 billion in 2020. Whilst most of the loans came from new loans, the rest was due to a devaluation. Notore is swimming in debts and this will stifle any chances of profitability at least in the short to medium term.

READ: Dangote’s world biggest fertilizer plant starts production in February next year

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Out of its N108 billion loan, it owes Afrexim $38 million (N14.75b); $5.1 million is due within a year as it reported in its audited financial statements. The dollar facility came at a steep 12.7% interest rate and is repayable over 84 months (7 years). There is also another $72.86 million (N29.08b) facility, out of which $5.85 million is due this year – also at an interest rate of 12.7%.

Thus, the company will have to find at least a whopping $10.9 million (excluding interest rates) to fund all its external loan obligations that fall due in one year. How it intends to achieve it this year is anyone’s guess.

READ: Egbin Power Plant generated the highest total energy output in Q1 2020, 14.82%

Another N16.79 billion are BOI-CBN loans obtained at concessionary rates of about 7%, add commercial bank loans of N44.46 billion at an interest rate of 23%, you start to understand how much debt the company is swimming in. These are unsustainable figures and is weighing down negatively on its balance sheets and profitability.

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Interest on loans is now the company’s highest cost driver coming at N23.4 billion last year alone, topping cost of sales and operating expenses of N21.6 billion and N5.9 billion, respectively. In fact, finance cost was higher than revenue in 2020.

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READ: Taraba to get free economic zone – NEPZA

Notore recognizes this challenge and restructured some of its loans in 2020. There are also plans to raise capital in 2021 through a rights issue or public offer. Whilst that seems like a plausible route to go this year, the size of equity it will require will depend on its share price and how far it wishes to go in terms of being diluted.

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At the current price of N62.5 per share, it will have to sell equity worth half its market capitalization of N100b to pay down just 50% of the debt. This will be a significantly expensive offer for potential investors considering that it has negative retained earnings of N29.1 billion and is unlikely to return to profitability anytime soon.

READ: Food and agriculture market in Africa to rise above $1 trillion by 2030 – AfDB President

The company can, however, take solace in the fact that its outlook for its mainstay, Fertilizer, is brighter than its capital structure woes. Nigeria needs fertilizer if its to expand its Agriculture revolution plans. As the company stated “the consumption of fertilizer per hectare of arable land in Nigeria is still far below the 200kg per hectare recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization,” buttressing the potential to grow topline. Export opportunities also exist especially with the start of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement.

Notore only needs to find a better way of financing its TAM programme and it cannot be sustained with the current capital structure.

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Nestle Nigeria must achieve consistency in its principal market segment

Nestle Nigeria Plc is well aware of the areas they need to scale up efforts and must immediately devise strategies to do that.

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Why Nestle Nigeria’s return remains strong - EFG Hermes, Nestle Nigeria Plc appoints new Director, Nestle Plc: FY 2019 Revenue beats estimate; but profit underperforms, GTB, Zenith Bank, & Nestle emerge as Renaissance Capital’s top stock picks, Nestlé’s parent company acquires additional shares worth ₦300 million

The consequence of the pandemic on a company like Nestle Nigeria plc is that despite huge efforts to improve revenues, a higher rate of increase in key costs will erode earnings.

Nestle is a worldwide brand with a distinct reputation and has been a strong pillar of growth for over 6 decades, producing a range of high-quality iconic brands including Milo, Maggi, Golden Morn, and Nescafé, amongst others.

The consumer goods giant has a presence in over 22 African countries and has operated with a customized strategy tailored to the locality they inhabit, depending on its peculiarities.

It uses local ingredients and other technologies that resonate with the local environment and gives autonomy to its local branches based in different countries to make pricing and distribution decisions.

This focused strategy has hitherto harvested results and steady improvements until 2020, at least not so much anyway.

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Revenue grew by 3.3% y/y in Q3’20, thanks to improvements in the sales of Beverages – one of Nestle Nigeria’s operating segment, the other being Foods.

Beverage segment as at Q3’2020 improved 12.3% y/y from external revenues, whilst Food segment suffered a 6.4% decline within the same period.

Ironically, the Food segment (particularly Maggi) is dubbed Nestlé Nigeria’s frontier product and biggest market. However, this is where Nestle has faced its toughest competition in recent times from Unilever, Cadbury and many others.

Indeed, the consumer goods industry is one of Nigeria’s finest and competitive, where companies go toe-for-toe for market share and product. Unilever recorded a 25.1% Q-o-Q surge in turnover from its Food segment at the end of Q3’2020. Nestle Nigeria on the other hand, suffered 16.1% decline.

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This data automatically confirms the conclusion that Unilever Nigeria Plc directly wrestled this market share primarily from Nestle and a little more from others.

Whilst this may be concerning, it doesn’t suggest any immediate doom for Nestle Nigeria. This is because in the last few years, Nestle Nigeria, to its own fault, has failed to nail down any sort of consistency in its Food segment.

Lose some percentage of market share today, gain some more next quarter and lose some again and just like that. Following this pattern, it is expected that by the release of Q4 results, Nestle may have recovered its 16%. It all depends on how successful the management strategy pans out and if their topsy-turvy progress pattern plays out again, we’ll just have to wait and see.

Nestle is an international brand, a Swiss multinational food and beverage company with over 447 factories across 194 countries and employs around 333,000 people. The company’s strategy has been to enter emerging markets early and strongly before its competitors, investing in people and structures to build a substantial customer base by selling products that suit the local population.

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Nestle Nigeria plc in line with this vision, made increased investments in its personnel. This is observed in the 11.8% increase in salary and wages and other welfare and personnel expenses.

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In terms of making further investments in structures, in this decade alone, Nestle established its Milo RTD (Ready to Drink) factory and made significant improvements to its ultra-modern distribution centre in Agbara, Ogun state – the Agbara Manufacturing Complex is one of Nestlé’s biggest factories in Africa.

The profit before tax for Nestle Nigeria plc in Q3 2020 was 4.5% less than its feat last year, even though it still closed the quarter with a strong profit position. The extra expenditure incurred on salary, wages and personnel haven’t done much to help its cause just yet.

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However, this wasn’t what was solely responsible for their failure to translate improved revenue position to bottom-line growth. The increase in the cost of sales is a culprit.

Nestle allowed an 8.5% increase in its cost of sales position. Analysts have implied this increase resulted from Nigeria’s weakened currency and inflationary pressures. Whatever the case, what is not in doubt is that Nestle Nigeria Plc is well aware of the areas they need to scale up efforts and must immediately devise strategies to do that.

Bottom line

Maggi sales have, hitherto, been their oil-well. The consumer goods giants must ensure to reclaim market share in this segment and maintain consistency and dominance over time.

Furthermore, in Chile, the Philippines, Mexico and various countries where Nestle hold significant share of the market; there is this practise where, as the income level rises in each niche market, Nestlé introduces an upscale version of the same brand to increase its profit level.

This strategy could be borrowed by Nestle Nigeria if the Beverage segment continues its present super-impressive form. Finally, it goes without saying that costs must now be carefully monitored, especially in generating sales.

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