Inflation shows surprise drop in October

FSDH Merchant Bank Ltd, Inflation rate, private sector loans, NBS

Figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), show inflation increased by 11.26 per cent (year-on-year) in October 2018. This is 0.02 per cent points lower than the rate recorded in September 2018 (11.28 per cent).

The key driver of the drop  

The food inflation sub-index rose by 13.28% year on year (down 0.03% from 13.31% recorded in September).

Bua group

States with the highest and lowest  YOY inflation rates 

Taraba State had the highest inflation on a year on year basis, at 13.21%. Ekiti State was next with a 13.18% increase. Jigawa state rounds up the top three with a 13.13% increase year on year.

On the flip side, Kwara State had the slowest rise in inflation, year on year at 8.07%. Cross River was next with a 8.79% increase. Ogun State rounds up the top three with a 9.63% increase.

Implications of the decrease 

MPC may leave rates unchanged 

Some members of the CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee had pushed for an increase in the monetary policy rate (the rate at which the CBN lends to banks, which serves a baseline interest rate for the larger economy).

This was due to the month on month increase in inflation from Augustt to September.

The decline in inflation could lead the committee adopting a HOLD recommendation.

Treasury bills rate may remain sticky  

Investors expecting an upward increase in the rates on treasury bills may have to shelve that. An increase in inflation would have served as a motive to increase the yields on treasury bills.

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