African countries remain largely import dependent and resource driven, despite billions in revenue. This, in turn, means their currencies are closely tied to the US dollar or swings in the commodities they export.
The folks are Reuters have compiled their expectation for the currencies of these African countries this week.
On the back of lower demand for dollars by Kenyan oil firms, the shilling is expected to appreciate this week. The Kenyan Central Bank had earlier this week sold dollars in a bid to meet the rise in demand.
The shilling had earlier this year, hit a 3 month high against the dollar, on the back of foreign investors piling into the country’s debt market. An interest rate cap has meant commercial banks in the country have piled into government securities in a bid to boost returns.
The Ugandan shilling is expected to depreciate against the dollar. Crude oil constitutes nearly a quarter of Uganda’s import demands.
An increase in crude oil prices could be a contributing factor to a higher demand for dollars by energy firms. Manufacturers have also stepped up their purchase of machinery and raw materials.
The shilling opened the year at 3635/3645, but is currently trading at 3770/3780, a nearly 10% decrease from the 3550/3650 band it traded in last year.
The Kwacha appreciated against the US dollar in the first quarter of 2018 due to net inflow from mining companies and foreign investors keying into government debt securities.
Zambia is one of the top 10 copper producing countries in the world. Th kwacha opened at 9.7 to the dollar at the beginning of the year. While copper prices softened a bit in the first quarter of the year, some analysts expect a rebound to $8000 per tonne.
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