Ok so whose economy will be the top dog in Africa when the interbank market opens on Monday? South Africa’s nominal GDP was estimated at R4.0 trillion for the year 2015, by its statistics agency (Stats SA).
Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) estimates the country’s nominal GDP to be N94 trillion at the end of 2015. The South African rand currently exchanges for 15.37 per dollar meaning the country’s R4.0 trillion GDP is equivalent to $260.2 billion.
Nigeria’s N94 trillion economy would be equivalent to $268.5 billion if the exchange rate were to move to N350 per dollar when trading begins on Monday.
It seems pretty close.
However there is also the issue of growth, which is also a factor in determining how big the nominal GDP will be by the end of 2016.
South Africa’s economy contracted by a dismal -1.2 percent in Q1, 2016, while Nigeria’s contracted by 0.37 percent.
Perhaps we can say Nigeria is doing less badly than South Africa, but sadly Africa’s largest economy and oil producer would have to lift growth rates to near double digits and double nominal GDP to N200 trillion, just to come close to the $500 billion plus economy it was in 2014.