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The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), a specialised agency of the United Nations responsible for weather, climate and water-related issues, has warned that 2027 could become another record-breaking year for global temperatures.
The warning comes as a developing El Niño phenomenon is expected to intensify warming and increase the risk of extreme weather events.
The WMO warning followed the release of the organisation’s State of the Climate Update 2026 on Monday, November 9, as world leaders gathered for the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Antalya, Türkiye.
The WMO said the developing El Niño is expected to become the strongest on record by December, with its warming effects likely to be felt most strongly in 2027.
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El Niño expected to worsen global temperature records
The WMO said 2026 will rank among the four warmest years on record, with the global average surface temperature between January and September reaching approximately 1.47°C above the pre-industrial average.
- It noted that the past 12 years have individually been the warmest on record, with 2023 to 2026 accounting for the four warmest years.
- The current record belongs to 2024, when the global average temperature reached 1.55°C above the pre-industrial average. This was followed by 2023, at 1.46°C, and 2025, at 1.43°C.
The organisation explained that El Niño typically increases annual global average temperatures by between 0.1°C and 0.2°C, with its greatest influence often felt in the year after it develops.
- “This is why 2024 was the warmest year on record, and why we should therefore prepare for another record-breaking year in 2027,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said.
She also explained that El Niño releases heat stored in the oceans, adding to the warming already driven by greenhouse gas emissions.
- “El Niño and indeed the state of the global climate in 2026 gives new meaning to the phrase off the charts. El Niño doesn’t add new heat to the planet. It releases heat from the ocean, which is the warmest ever measured. There is simply more heat available to release,” Saulo said.
WMO calls for stronger climate preparedness
The organisation stressed the importance of sustained climate monitoring, reliable forecasts and early warning systems in helping countries prepare for increasingly severe weather conditions.
It noted that the number of countries reporting multi-hazard early warning systems increased from 56 in 2015 to 136 in 2025, reflecting progress in global climate preparedness.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres called on world leaders to accelerate climate action, particularly through emissions reductions and increased support for vulnerable countries.
- “We have entered a new age of climate extremes. A supersized El Niño is colliding with a planet already superheated by manmade climate change,” Guterres said.
Nigeria’s growing exposure to climate risks
The developing El Niño comes amid growing concerns about the impact of extreme weather conditions on Nigeria’s electricity supply, infrastructure and vulnerable communities.
- In June 2026, Nairametrics reported that a BMI report had warned that El Niño-induced drought could reduce hydropower generation across West Africa, exposing Nigeria to electricity supply risks. Previous El Niño events had reportedly reduced Nigeria’s hydropower utilisation by nearly 25%.
- Beyond the potential impact on power generation, flooding remains another climate-related challenge for Nigerian communities.
In July 2026, Nairametrics examined recurring flooding in Lagos, with experts identifying the loss of wetlands, rapid urbanisation and inadequate flood-control infrastructure as factors worsening the city’s vulnerability to heavy rainfall.
