African airlines record second-highest international passenger demand growth at 8% in September

African airlines recorded an 8% increase in international passenger demand in September 2026, the second-highest growth among global regions, behind Latin America’s 8.2%.

This was contained in the September 2026 global passenger demand report released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

The growth exceeded the global international market’s 0.4% increase, although African carriers expanded available capacity faster than passenger demand during the period.

African airlines record 8% international passenger demand growth

African airlines increased their available seat capacity by 8.8% year-on-year in September, exceeding the 8% growth in international passenger demand.

This resulted in a 0.6 percentage-point decline in the region’s passenger load factor to 74.8%, indicating that a smaller proportion of available seats was occupied compared with September 2025.

IATA reported that the region maintained one of the strongest performances among international aviation markets, with only Latin America recording higher demand growth.

• “African airlines saw an 8.0% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity was up 8.8% year-on-year. The load factor was 74.8% (-0.6 ppt compared to September 2025),” IATA said.
• Latin American airlines recorded 8.2% demand growth, with capacity increasing by 7.6% and load factor rising by 0.5 percentage points to 83.9%.
• European carriers recorded 1.8% demand growth, while Asia-Pacific airlines grew by 0.7%. Their respective load factors increased to 86.1% and 83.1%.

North American demand was flat, although capacity fell by 1.9%, lifting the load factor by 1.6 percentage points to 84.9%. The Middle East recorded the weakest performance, with demand declining by 7.5% and its load factor falling by 3.6 percentage points to 78.3%.

Global passenger demand falls again

The global aviation market recorded a second consecutive monthly decline in passenger demand in September, although the contraction eased from the 0.8% recorded in August.

• Total passenger demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), fell by 0.5% year-on-year, while available seat capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), declined by 0.2%. The global passenger load factor stood at 83.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from September 2025.
• International passenger demand increased by 0.4%, while capacity expanded by 0.5%. Excluding the Middle East, international demand would have grown by 1.7%.
• Domestic passenger demand declined by 2.2%, while capacity fell by 1.3%. The domestic load factor dropped by 0.7 percentage points to 82.5%.
• India recorded an 8.3% decline in domestic demand, its steepest fall of the year. The United States declined by 2.7%, while Japan fell by 0.8%.

Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist, attributed the global weakness largely to the Middle East and North America. She noted that September was an improvement on August, although geopolitical uncertainty and volatile fuel prices could continue to affect performance.

IATA projected global scheduled seat capacity growth of 0.6% in October and 1.5% in November compared with the corresponding months of 2025.

African airline demand growth gains momentum

African airlines’ international passenger demand growth accelerated to 8% in September from 6.7% in August, according to IATA’s monthly passenger market reports.

However, capacity expansion also increased, reaching 8.8% in September from 8.3% in August. The gap between capacity and demand growth continued to weigh on the region’s passenger load factor.

• In August, African airlines recorded 6.7% international demand growth, while the passenger load factor stood at 78.4%, down 1.2 percentage points from August 2025.
• Demand growth had fluctuated throughout the year, rising by 11.7% in January, 4.8% in February and 19.2% in March before slowing to 2.2% in April.
• Growth recovered to 8.9% in May, 6.7% in June and 6.4% in July, while international capacity increased by 9% in July.

The September figures therefore show stronger demand growth than in the preceding months but also continued capacity expansion ahead of passenger demand.

Airline seat capacity surges in Nigeria in September

Nigeria recorded the fastest scheduled airline capacity growth among Africa’s 10 largest aviation markets in September 2026, with a 37.4% year-on-year increase, according to OAG African Market data.

The country added 322,800 seats to reach 1.19 million, recording the second-largest absolute increase among the markets tracked.

• Egypt recorded the largest addition, with 364,800 seats, bringing its capacity to 3.08 million. Its growth rate was 13.4%.
• Ghana and Tanzania recorded increases of 12.9% and 11.7%, respectively. Morocco grew by 10%, while Algeria and South Africa recorded increases of 7.6% and 6.6%.
• Ethiopia’s capacity rose by 6.3%, while Tunisia and Kenya recorded more modest increases of 3.2% and 0.8%, respectively.

OAG attributed Nigeria’s expansion to currency reforms, a new aircraft leasing agreement and growing confidence among airlines seeking to operate in the country.

Across Africa, scheduled airline capacity reached 25.8 million seats in September, up 9.4% year-on-year. International capacity accounted for 78% of the total and grew by 8.9%, while domestic capacity increased by 11.6%.