IATA: African airlines’ air cargo demand rises 4.7% as capacity falls

African airlines’ air cargo demand rose by 4.7% year-on-year in September 2026, even as cargo capacity declined, according to the latest report from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

The figures came amid a 7.7% increase in global air cargo demand, supported by stronger trade and manufacturing activity and shipments linked to artificial intelligence.

However, rising jet fuel prices continued to put pressure on airline operating costs.

African air cargo capacity declines

The report shows that African airlines’ cargo capacity contracted by 1.2% year-on-year, contrasting with the 2.7% increase recorded globally. International cargo demand rose by 8.6%, while international capacity increased by 3.3%.

• North American airlines recorded an 11.8% increase in cargo demand, while capacity rose by 0.8%.
• Asia-Pacific airlines recorded demand growth of 8.6% and capacity growth of 4.9%.
• European airlines’ cargo demand increased by 4.5%, while capacity declined by 1.6%.

Middle Eastern airlines recorded demand growth of 3.8%, compared with capacity growth of 7%, while Latin American and Caribbean airlines recorded increases of 6.7% in demand and 7.6% in capacity.

IATA Senior Vice President for Sustainability and Chief Economist Marie Owens Thomsen said, “Air cargo demand rose 7.7% year-on-year in September, with growth across all regions. Stronger global trade and manufacturing provided a supportive backdrop, while AI-related shipments helped drive another month of double-digit growth across the Pacific.”

The Asia–North America trade lane remained the strongest-performing major corridor, followed by intra-Asia traffic, Europe–North America and Europe–Asia. Cargo traffic declined on the Europe–Middle East and Middle East–Asia corridors.

Jet fuel prices more than double in September

Despite stronger global cargo demand, rising fuel prices continued to weigh on airline profitability. IATA reported that jet fuel prices increased by 17.5% month-on-month in September and were 103.4% higher than a year earlier.

Global trade increased by 3.6% year-on-year in August, marking 42 consecutive months of growth. Manufacturing indicators also strengthened during the period.

• The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose by 0.7 points to 53.8.
• The New Export Orders Index increased by 0.5 points to 51.9.
• Both indicators reached their highest levels in five years.
• IATA said airline yields had not kept pace with rising expenses, adding to pressure on profitability.

The figures point to a supportive environment for air cargo volumes, but higher fuel costs remain a challenge for airlines seeking to translate demand growth into stronger financial performance.

African air cargo trends From February to August

African airlines’ cargo performance varied considerably in the months leading up to September, with demand and capacity recording different growth rates. The figures show that demand growth was particularly strong in February and May before moderating in subsequent months.

• In August, cargo demand increased by 3% year-on-year, while capacity expanded by 14%.
• In July, demand rose by 1.1%, while capacity grew by 4.1%.
• In June, demand increased by 4.7%, even as capacity declined by 7.1%.
• In May, demand rose by 13.3%, while capacity increased by 1.3%.
• In April, demand grew by 7.7%, while capacity fell by 9.4%. March recorded 7% demand growth, while February saw demand increase by 21%, with the Africa–Asia corridor recording particularly strong growth of 61.9%.

The Africa–Asia corridor subsequently contracted by 11.9% year-on-year in August, marking its third consecutive monthly decline at that point.

Nigeria’s air freight market and growth prospects

Nigeria’s air freight market could benefit from growth in cargo demand, particularly for time-sensitive shipments, diaspora exports and business-to-business and consumer-to-consumer trade.

Aramex Nigeria Managing Director Faisal Jarmakani has estimated the country’s air freight logistics market at more than $8 billion. Lagos serves as the country’s primary cargo hub, while Abuja, Port Harcourt and Kano are also important gateways.

• Airport cargo-processing delays can slow the movement of shipments.
• High handling charges increase the cost of moving goods through the air freight system.
• Limited technology integration among regulatory agencies can complicate logistics and cargo clearance.
• Improved digitisation, lower logistics costs and better warehousing could support greater efficiency in the sector.

For Nigerian businesses, air freight remains important for goods that need to reach their destinations quickly. The ability of local operators to benefit from growth in global air cargo demand will also depend on the efficiency and cost of the domestic logistics chain.