NESG: Nigeria’s business activity hits record 117.8 points, but costs keep biting

Nigeria’s business activity rose to a record 117.8 points in September 2026, surpassing the previous high of 117.2 points recorded in February, according to the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG).

The latest Business Confidence Monitor, titled Strong Demand Ignited Business Growth Amid Persistent Cost Pressures, showed that the composite Current Business Performance Index increased from 112.7 points in August 2026 and 107.9 points in September 2025.

The expansion was broad-based across sectors, although Manufacturing and Services recorded slower activity compared with August, while Trade recorded the strongest performance.

Nigeria business activity hits record

The group noted that most Business Confidence Monitor sub-indices remained in expansion territory and improved from August, while the investment index moved into expansion after several months of contraction.

• “Expansion was broad-based across sectors, with Trade recording the strongest performance.”
• “All sectors remained in expansion territory, although Manufacturing and Services recorded a slowdown in business activity compared with the previous month.”
• “The strong performance of trade stockpiling could be largely linked to back-to-school shopping, reflected in robust demand conditions during the month.”

The financial results index, however, fell into contraction after several months of expansion.

The Cost of Doing Business and Prices sub-indices remained below the neutral 100-point threshold at 39.2 and 58.0 points respectively, indicating that firms continued to face elevated operating costs and producer prices.

Trade leads September expansion

Trade recorded the strongest sectoral performance in September, with its Current Business Performance Index rising to 128.5 points from 112.0 points in August and 107.6 points a year earlier.

• Wholesale Trade remained in expansion and performed better than in August, while Retail Trade entered expansion territory. Both benefited from stronger trade stockpiling and consumer demand associated with back-to-school shopping.
• Agriculture increased to 117.7 points from 110.5 points in August and 107.3 points in September 2025, although Forestry and Fishing moved into contraction.
• Manufacturing declined to 108.4 points from 120.4 points but remained above its September 2025 reading of 102.5 points; Cement entered contraction while several other subsectors also weakened.
• Non-Manufacturing improved to 113.4 points from 109.7 points, despite moderating from 114.5 points a year earlier; Crude Petroleum entered expansion while Oil and Gas Services contracted.
• Services remained in expansion but slowed to 107.7 points from 112.4 points in August and 108.5 points in September 2025, with Financial Institutions, Real Estate, and Telecoms and Information Services recording stronger activity.

NESG said businesses across the sectors continued to contend with financing constraints, irregular electricity supply, insecurity, infrastructure bottlenecks and high rental costs, while manufacturers also faced raw-material supply challenges.

Businesses remain cautiously optimistic

The NESG Future Business Expectation Index stood at 128.9 points in September, slightly below 129.3 points in August, indicating continued but cautious optimism about business conditions over the next one to three months.

Trade recorded the strongest outlook among the sectors, followed by Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing, while Agriculture and Services recorded comparatively lower expectations.

• Trade posted an expectation index of 192.0 points.
• Manufacturing followed with 151.9 points, while Non-Manufacturing recorded 148.1 points.
• Agriculture stood at 134.8 points, while Services recorded 123.2 points.

NESG said persistent cost pressures and constraints around finance, power, infrastructure and security continued to weigh on business activity and new investment.

Nairametrics earlier reported that the World Bank raised Nigeria’s 2026 economic growth forecast to 4.3% from 4.0% in 2025, with growth projected at 4.4% annually in 2027 and 2028.